February
28, 2023
SULAYMANIYAH,
Iraqi Kurdistan — Iran's currency is in free-fall, falling almost 10% over the
weekend, breaking through the psychologically important half-million mark to
more than 600,000 rials to the dollar. The plunging currency led the Tehran
bazaar to close, an event that preceded the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Just
a few dozen miles across the border, Iraqi Kurds were watching developments
closely, questioning how quickly the rial rate could fall below 1 million and
the consequences.
The
situation is quickly becoming a perfect storm for Iran. Nowruz, the Persian New
Year, is less than a month away. During the holiday, Iranians visit friends,
family, and take pride in lavishing hospitality. The rule of supply and demand
normally leads to modest inflation of basic foodstuffs during the period. While
Nowruz always falls on the same day, Ramadan follows the Islamic calendar. This
year, it coincides with Nowruz. Holiday inflation will be supercharged. Not
since the Iran-Iraq War will Iranians feel so squeezed. The result — either no
hospitality or unaffordable debt— will demoralize.
When
leader Ali Khamenei likes to talk about revolutionary values, most Iranians
roll their eyes. Just as in the last months of the Soviet Union, even regime
apparatchiks no longer believe their own talking points. The protests that
began with 22-year-old Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody was a death knell
to regime legitimacy. That the six-month anniversary of her death falls on
Nowruz takes the perfect storm to an even higher level. Inertia and fear now
hold the Islamic Republic together. But that may no longer be enough. While
Iranian bureaucrats may no longer be true believers (if they ever were), they
embraced the status quo to keep their jobs and their salaries. They may have
jobs, but their salaries may no longer be enough to subsist.
Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo’s strategy of maximum pressure was right. President Joe
Biden’s team might also claim credit by cracking down on Iraqi transfers of
cash to Iran, after two years of doing the opposite. In effect, they now seem
to embrace Pompeo’s strategy after trying everything else first.
Zombie
regimes can persist for months, if not years, but change is now inevitable. It
is time to plan for regime change in Iran. In 1989, President George H.W. Bush
issued a classified national security directive instructing all elements of the
U.S. government to prepare for normalization with Iran. Iranians were never an
enemy; they were as much victims of the Islamic Republic as were Americans.
Rather than imagine reconciliation with the Iranian regime, it is time to gear
policy fully to the possibilities of a Middle East in which Iran is a partner
for peace and stability rather than a source of division, terrorism, and
violence.
Let
us hope that Biden understands what the Iranian people now do: That future is
not possible with the Islamic Republic in existence.
Iran’s support for Russian war efforts 'expanding,' Biden administration says
February
24, 2023
Iran's
assistance to Russia in its war in Ukraine is "expanding," according
to a National Security Council official.
Tehran
and Moscow's relationship has continued to blossom since the war commenced as
Russian President Vladimir Putin has found himself increasingly isolated since
invading Ukraine. In the fall, Iran provided Ukraine with hundreds of unmanned
drones that Russian forces used to target Ukrainian infrastructure and its
energy grid.
U.S.
officials have warned about the possible threat of a growing Tehran-Moscow
relationship in recent weeks and months, while the administration revealed on
Friday that Iran's support for Russia's war has grown.
"We
have additional information that Iran's support for Russia's war is expanding.
In November, Iran shipped artillery and tank rounds to Russia for use in
Ukraine. Russia is planning to cooperate with Iran to obtain more military
equipment in return," National Security Council coordinator John Kirby
told reporters on Friday. "Russia has been offering Iran unprecedented
defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics, and air defense. We
believe that Russia might provide Iran with fighter jets."
"Iran
is also seeking to purchase additional military equipment from Russia,
including attack helicopters, radars, and combat trainer aircraft. In total,
Iran is seeking billions of dollars worth of military equipment from Russia,"
he added.
The
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency confirmed earlier this month that Russia had
been using Iran's Shahed-136 one-way attack UAV, the Shahed-131 one-way attack
UAV, and the Mohajer-6 multirole UAV in Ukraine.
In
December, Kirby said the Russian-Iranian relationship "is transforming ...
into a full-fledged defense partnership," adding that the two sides are
working on “the establishment of a joint production line for lethal drones in
Russia," while national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in January
that Iran "could potentially be contributing to widespread war
crimes."
An
Iranian drone that Russia launched in Ukraine contained parts made by more than
a dozen U.S. and Western companies, while the Biden administration is
"looking at ways to target Iranian UAV production through sanctions,
export controls, and talking to private companies whose parts have been used in
the production," Adrienne Watson, a National Security Council spokeswoman,
said in a statement in early January to the Washington Examiner. "We are
assessing further steps we can take in terms of export controls to restrict
Iran’s access to technologies used in drones."
Iran
is not the only country to provide or to consider providing weapons to Russia.
North
Korea "has provided arms" to the Wagner Group, a paramilitary
mercenary group that operates closely with the Russian military, Kirby said.
Additionally, various Biden administration officials have warned this week that
China is considering providing "lethal aid" to Russia but hasn't done
so yet.
The
administration has warned of "consequences" for China should it arm
Russia.
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