March
12, 2023
Poison
gas attacks on schoolgirls in Iran have shocked the world for months, from with
the first reports in November, at the height of the protests against the regime
triggered by the death of a young woman in the custody of its morality police.
Sources
inside and out of Iran have provided The Media Line with a true picture of the
extent of the incidents, including the names of many of the schools singled out
for attack, the exact dates on which many of the attacks took place and the
number of people affected.
The
sources include The New Iran, a not-for-profit grassroots political
organization established in 2010, where several of its founders have been
working together against the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) since 2003, and
involved in the fight, inside and out of the country.
Iranian
schoolgirls poisoned all over the country
More
than 1,000 schoolgirls at more than 26 schools in 25 of Iran’s 31 provinces
have now been hit by the poison gas since the first attacks in the city of Qom
in November, when 15 schools were targeted. The victims reported a smell akin
to rotten oranges, followed by nausea, headaches, and finally shortness of
breath left them urgently seeking medical attention.
The
list of schools targeted that was provided to The Media Line covers the period
from when the attacks began in November 2022 to the end of February 2023. The
attacks are spread across the country, some affecting just a handful of people
and others more than one hundred. The institutions targeted include both
primary and secondary schools and attacks have occurred with increasing
frequency, often in more than one location on the same day.
Attacks
have been reported in schools for girls in many major cities, and Tehran,
Ardabil, Isfahan, Shahin Shahr, Karaj and Kermanshah were even all targeted on
the same day.
Frequent,
repeated attacks
Qom
is one of the cities whose schools have most frequently been attacked. On
February 6, for example, at least 11 schools in Qom were hit with poison gas,
affecting at least 86 people, The Media Line has learned. On February 14, three
schools in the city were also hit, affecting 117 people.
The
Ahmadiyeh Borujerd Girls' High School in Borujerd, western Iran also appears to
have been singled out. It was attacked three times in four days in February,
affecting at least 126 people.
Iranian
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has condemned the gas attacks as
“unforgivable” amid a public outcry and the removal of some girls from their
classrooms by their worried parents.
Several
Iranian politicians have accused religious groups that oppose girls’ education
of carrying out the poisonings, and a little-known group from Qom calling
itself Fadayeen-e Velayat has claimed responsibility.
The
group said that allowing girls to receive an education was a violation of
Islam, and threatened to step up the attacks if the authorities continue to
allow female students in the classroom.
TML
was unable to independently verify this, however, and the multiple experts on
Iran consulted by TML knew little about the organization and cast doubt on the
veracity of the claim.
Tacit
support from the Iranian regime
In
fact, TML’s Iranian sources and experts on the issue have suggested that the
attacks are being carried out either at the behest of the government or at least
with its tacit support. This, they say, is being done in order to distract the
public from the ongoing protests against the regime and place responsibility
for the causes of the unrest on a handful of “arbitrary Talibani extremists”
who can be dealt with by the authorities “to exonerate the entire Islamic
system.”
Indeed,
a number of people have been arrested for allegedly carrying out the attacks. A
statement by the Iranian Interior Ministry released on Tuesday said that some
of the suspects had links to "foreign-based dissident media" and to
the unrest that began in September following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa
Amini.
The
Media Line sources also suggest that the attacks are a bid to distract the
Iranian public while the son of the late Shah, exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, is
on his current European tour as part of his and his supporters’ efforts to
overthrow the Islamist regime and restore the monarchy.
A
more extreme suggestion is that that poison gas allegedly used in the attacks
is a watered-down version of chemical weapons used in Syria by the Iranian
regime’s ally President Bashar Assad in areas held by rebels fighting to end
his rule. This use of such a deadly weapon, the sources speculate, is a
precursor to its deployment against the protesters in Iran.
An
atmosphere of terror
Similarly,
they suggest, the poison attacks could be a move to create “an atmosphere of
terror” among protesters and therefore prevent growing numbers from joining
them as Iranian society reels from poverty, corruption and an unaffordable cost
of living.
Meanwhile,
a group of 20 prominent human rights lawyers in Iran has published an open
letter calling for an independent, joint committee consisting of experts from
the world’s top public health, children’s rights, and education-focused
agencies to investigate the gas attacks.
The
lawyers, in their formal letter, call on three United Nations agencies – the
World Health Organization, UNICEF, and UNESCO – as well as the International
Committee to investigate.
The
New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) stated that “due to the
Iranian government’s incompetence – or unwillingness – to stop poison gas
attacks against schoolgirls in Iran, international support is urgently needed
to protect Iranian children and their right to education."
The
US government believes an investigation into the poisonings could fall under
the UN mandate. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre stated that, “if
these poisonings are related to participation in protests, then it is fully
within the mandate of the UN independent fact-finding mission established last
November to investigate human rights violations in Iran.”
Who are the winners and losers in Iran-Saudi ties? – Analysis
March
12, 2023
Saudi
Arabia may be placed in a position to diplomatically bring up Israel's concerns
to Iran.
New
relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have the potential to reshape the
region. They also have the potential to maintain processes that have existed
for a decade.
A
shift in the US role in the region from countering terrorism after 9/11 to
countering peer rivals, such as China and Russia, has meant the region is also
rewriting its ties with Washington and Beijing.
The
looming crisis of an Iranian nuclear weapon plays into the relevance of these
new ties. In addition, new Saudi-Iran ties could reduce conflict in Lebanon,
Yemen, Iraq and Syria. Are there clear winners and losers out of the deal, or
is it more nuanced? Here are three questions to ask.
Loss
of US influence?
Much
of the discussion of the new Iran-Saudi ties has been focused on the perceived
loss of US influence. This argument posits that China was able to swoop into
the Middle East and broker Iran-Saudi ties – at the expense of US interests and
influence.
The
reality is more complex. US-Saudi ties go back a whole century; for much of the
Cold War, Saudi Arabia was a key pillar of US relations in the region, and a
stable one at that. Whereas other countries like Iran shifted ruling regimes,
and Iraq turned against the US and invaded Kuwait in 1990, Saudi Arabia was a
mainstay.
The
US also worked with Riyadh during the conflict in Afghanistan, when the US was
close to Pakistan and arming the Mujahideen. Ties with Saudi Arabia shifted a
bit over the years, especially with concerns that Riyadh was continuing to
enable extremist ideology.
However,
Saudi Arabia shifted its policies slowly after 9/11 and the rise of Mohammed
bin Salman has reshaped perceptions of Riyadh and set it on a more independent
course in foreign policy. This is typical of other countries that have historic
ties to the US – other examples are Turkey and Qatar.
Every
country makes its own policies, and it’s hard to read the Saudi outreach to
Iran as a blow to the US when many have seen Riyadh’s other policies as
drifting away from the US orbit over the last years. For instance, after the
Iranian attack on Abqaiq in 2019, the US didn’t support a Saudi response. There
have been calls in the West to stop arming Saudi Arabia during the war in
Yemen. As well, Riyadh’s decision to break ties with Qatar in 2017 was seen as
controversial.
This
means that the latest decision by Saudi Arabia to renew ties with Iran may not
be related to US policy. The US didn’t demand Saudi Arabia break ties with Iran
in the first place. The US has a strategic alliance with Qatar, which in turn
has close ties with Iran, as does Turkey, which is a NATO member. Saudi Arabia
is merely doing what other US partners have done.
A
win for China?
LAST
YEAR, Iran and China implemented a 25-year deal to improve ties. China has not
only expanded ties with Iran. In December 2022, China also committed to a
five-year plan with six Gulf countries; China’s Xi Jinping met with Gulf
leaders in 2022 as well in a meeting hosted by Saudi Arabia.
China’s
outreach in the Gulf and with Iran goes back years. This comes amid the US
viewing China and Russia as near-peer rivals that Washington wants to confront.
The more China has partnerships in the Gulf, the more the US has warned
countries that those partners could impact some level of ties with the US over
sensitive issues, such as countries that want to acquire F-35s.
China
has clearly sought to expand its relationships in the region, and the decision
by Iran and Saudi Arabia to work with China on normalization with each other is
part of China becoming a diplomatic broker in the region.
Though
this is a win for China, it was also a natural country to host this final step.
Iran and Saudi Arabia already held talks in Baghdad about reconciliation, talks
that began in 2021 and continued off-and-on with some stalls in 2022. Overall,
the trajectory was clear.
Saudi
Arabia had also reconciled with Qatar early in 2021, and it was rumored to be
considering closer ties with Israel, a slow process that began back in 2015.
The train was on the tracks for Saudi-Iran ties, all it needed was a bit of a
push – which China gave
Does
Israel lose out?
The
potential for better Israel-Saudi ties have been a constant issue of
speculation. Days before the Saudi-Iran deal was announced, there were reports
in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times about Riyadh seeking security
pledges from Washington as part of some kind of upgrade of ties with Israel.
impact
Israel negatively. Saudi Arabia has interests in Yemen and Lebanon, as well as
in Syria and Iraq. In many ways, Saudi Arabia’s interests dovetail with
Israel’s in terms of stability and not wanting Iran’s militias or proxies
running these countries.
The
Gulf in general is moving to reconcile with Syria, which can reduce chaos in
the region. The era of war that defined the period after the Arab Spring, and
the era of conflict that began decades ago with the rise of extremists, appears
to be coming to some kind of a close.
The
shifts in the Gulf are important for this to happen. Extremist groups have,
one-by-one, been ejected by most Gulf states, except in Qatar. There is less
funding for these groups; al-Qaeda and ISIS have been mostly defeated.
Stability
and state-to-state relations are part of the new era. This is underpinned by
big country politics and also deals that Israel has played a role in such as
the Negev Summit, I2U2 and the Abraham Accords. Iran-Saudi ties can be viewed
as part of that larger process of diplomacy.
As
such, Israel might not lose out. Saudi Arabia can now articulate its concerns
to Iran through diplomacy, rather than being at loggerheads. Countries tend to
listen more than they have a way to speak and engage with one another, rather
than portraying each other as enemies. New ties could reduce the Iranian
threats.
Iran boasts of overcoming US pressure, increasing naval power
March
12, 2023
The
reports come as Iran is positioning itself to gain from new ties with Saudi
Arabia and its increasing arms trade with Russia, as well as close work with
China.
Iran’s
head of the IRGC Hossein Salami said this week that Iran has overcome US-led
sanctions and that the more pressure it is subjected to, the more Iran will
eventually “respond” to this pressure. He made the reference during a speech
that was reported in Iranian pro-regime media.
Among
his several points was that Iran has become stronger despite the sanctions
imposed on it. He claims that years of sanctions made Iran invest in its
satellite program and energy infrastructure and large construction projects. We
sent all kinds of satellites into the sky,” he said.
The
report comes as Iran has also put out an extensive report about the operations
of its naval vessels. Iran is seeking to send its naval vessels on longer
voyages. The report mentions attempts by Iran to confront both the US and
Israel over the last several years and it also talks about ties with Russia,
and confrontations with pirates.
Iranian
ships arrive in Brazil
According
to USNI news in late February, two Iranian ships were able to arrive in Rio de
Janeiro after having waited for permission in the Atlantic Ocean.
“According
to photos from ship spotters, the Iranian surface group passed the Fortress of
Santa Cruz on Sunday. Photos from Reuters show Dena docked at the Wharf of
Gamboa general cargo terminal on Tuesday. The government of newly-elected
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva gave permission for IRIS Makran
and IRIS Dena to dock in the country shortly after returning from a state visit
to Washington, D.C,” the report said.
Iranian
media Tehran Times had said in late January that “the admiral stated that the
Navy’s 86th flotilla, comprised of Dena and Makran warships, has raised the
Iranian flag in the western waters of Latin America. Navy’s flotillas also have
a strong presence in the northern tip of the Indian Ocean, he said. Dena is a
Mowj-class warship that joined the Iranian Navy in June 2021. The military
vessel is reportedly equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes and
naval cannons. Makran is a forward base ship weighing 121,000 tons. The warship
can carry five helicopters and is employed for providing logistical support for
the combat warships.”
The
reports come as Iran is positioning itself to gain from new ties with Saudi
Arabia and its increasing arms trade with Russia, as well as close work with
China.
Iran arrests more than 100 people over suspected poisonings of schoolgirls
March
11, 2023
Iran
has arrested more than 100 people “in connection with” the suspected poisoning
of hundreds of schoolgirls across the country, according to the state-run IRNA
news agency.
Citing
a statement from Iran’s Interior Ministry, IRNA said the people had been
“identified, arrested and investigated” in several cities, including the
capital Tehran.
“Initial
inquiries show that a number of these people, out of mischief or adventurism
and with the aim of shutting down classrooms and influenced by the created psychological
atmosphere, have taken measures such as using harmless and smelly substances,”
the statement read.
Iran
has seen a wave of suspected poisonings, carried out almost entirely at girls’
schools, in recent months.
While
Iranian politicians have suggested the girls could have been targeted by
hardline Islamist groups, activists believe that the poisonings may be linked
to the nationwide protests that erupted last September over the death of Mahsa
Ami. Many schoolgirls have been active in the protests, removing their
mandatory headscarves in classrooms, tearing up pictures of Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and calling for his death.
Medics,
parents and teachers have accused the Iranian government of attempting to
silence the victims.
Iran’s
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei previously called the suspected poisonings an
“unforgivable crime” and called for “severe punishment” for anyone found
responsible.
Among
those arrested, the ministry said, were “individuals who have had hostile
motives, tried to create fear and horror among people and students, shut down
schools, and created pessimism toward” the Iranian government.
They
would remain “under investigation until required assurances are achieved,” the
statement said, adding that the number of poisoning cases at girls’ schools
across the country had been decreasing “over the past several days.”
The
first suspected poisonings happened in November at a high school in the city of
Qom which saw 18 schoolgirls hospitalized, according to Iranian state media.
A
mother of two daughters from Qom previously told CNN that both girls, who
attended different schools, had suffered significant health issues after being
poisoned.
One
girl experienced nausea, shortness of breath and numbness in her left leg and
right hand while the other now had “difficulty walking,” she said.
Another
incident in the city took place in February when more than 100 students from 13
schools were hospitalized after what Iranian state news agencies described as
“serial poisonings.”
Both
the United States and United Nations have called on Iranian authorities to
fully investigate the suspected poisonings and hold those responsible to
account.
The
White House on Monday said there must be a “credible, independent”
investigation of poisonings among schoolgirls in Iran, suggesting it could be
within the purview of the United Nations to look into the matter.
Previously,
the Biden administration had noted Iran itself was conducting an investigation.
But questioned by CNN’s Phil Mattingly on Monday, press secretary Karine
Jean-Pierre said the situation could fall within the mandate of the UN’s
independent fact-finding mission on Iran.
“We
are closely following this deeply concerning situation that we’re seeing in
Iran,” she said. “The continued poisoning of schoolgirls across Iran is
unconscionable. There must be a credible, independent investigation (and)
accountability for those responsible.”
She
said if the poisonings were related to recent protests, it was “well within”
the UN fact-finding mission’s mandate.
“The
possibility that girls in Iran are being possibly poisoned for simply for
trying to get an education is shameful, it’s unacceptable,” she said.
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