March 6, 2023
Iran's
concessions to UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi during his visit to
Tehran this weekend depend to a large extent on future negotiations, Grossi
conceded on Monday, walking back some comments he made upon his return.
Two days before
a quarterly meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation Board
of Governors, the IAEA and Iran said they had agreed to make progress on
various issues, including a long-stalled IAEA inquiry into uranium particles
found at three undeclared sites in Iran.
Grossi told a
news conference on Saturday they had agreed to re-install all extra monitoring
equipment, such as surveillance cameras, at nuclear sites that was put in place
under Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with major powers, but then removed last year as
the deal unraveled following the US withdrawal in 2018.
“We have our
ideas and this will be part of the technical discussions that are going to be
undertaken as a follow-up to my visit and to the joint statement. And a
technical team will be traveling to Iran very soon to do that.” IAEA head
Rafael Grossi "We will have to discuss...this, how do we do it,"
Grossi told a news conference on Monday, conceding that this and other issues
would largely hinge on future technical talks.
"We have
our ideas and this will be part of the technical discussions that are going to
be undertaken as a follow-up to my visit and to the joint statement. And a
technical team will be traveling to Iran very soon to do that," he added.
The announcement
of apparent progress in a joint statement on Saturday that went into little
detail appears to have been enough to stave off a Western push for another
resolution like one passed at the last quarterly board meeting ordering Iran to
cooperate with the investigation into the uranium traces.
The Islamic
Republic usually bristles at such resolutions and has in the past responded by
accelerating the very nuclear activities that the 2015 deal was designed to
rein in.
Grossi brushes
off concerns about Iran's commitments
"Why don't
you let us do our job? Unless you want to join us as an inspector, which could
be interesting. We know how to do these things," Grossi said when pressed
on how much Iran had firmly committed to and how much relied on future
negotiations. "I believe that there is a good opportunity. I cannot
guarantee, of course. When people say these were (only) promises: well, first,
it's not (only) promises. We do have certain agreements which are concrete. And
at the same time, I need to do my job and never give up."
Russia and Iran secret nuclear deal would allow uranium transfers to Tehran's illicit weapons program: sources
March
5, 2023
Amid
the International Atomic Energy Agency’s disclosure this week that the Islamic
Republic of Iran accumulated near weapons-grade enriched uranium for its
alleged nuclear weapon program, Fox News Digital has learned that Iran has
allegedly secured secret deals with Russia to guarantee deliveries of uranium.
In
what could be a major setback to a new Iran nuclear deal, foreign intelligence
sources speaking on the condition of anonymity, and who are familiar with the
negotiations between Moscow and Tehran over Iran’s reported illegal nuclear
weapons work, told Fox News Digital that Russian President Vladimir Putin
agreed to return enriched uranium that it received from Iran if a prospective
atomic deal collapses. The State Department would neither confirm nor deny the
reports.
The
State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital, "We will not comment
on purported secret intelligence reports, but in any event the JCPOA has not
been on the agenda for months." A spokesperson for the National Security
Council deferred comment to the State Department.
One
major component of the effort by the U.S and other world powers to revive the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the formal name of the Iran nuclear
deal, is for Russia to warehouse Tehran's enriched uranium. The rationale for
Russia storing the uranium is to prevent the regime from using the material to
construct an atomic bomb.
The
foreign intelligence sources claim, "As part of the agreement between the
two countries, Russia has undertaken to return all the enriched uranium to Iran
as quickly as possible, if, for any reason, the U.S. withdraws from the
agreement."
"It
would make sense to me that they would agree to this type of side deal,"
Rebekah Koffler, a former analyst at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency,
said. Koffler noted that, "Based on my knowledge of Russian doctrine and
state tradecraft, the Russians are trying to play both sides. On the one side,
they do not want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. On the other hand, they do want
assistance from Iran for Ukraine."
Koffler,
an expert on Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, added, "Russia benefits
from being a party to the JCPOA. Russia's tactic is to drag things on and play
both sides. That gives Putin leverage over both sides but also allows him to be
perceived as a deal-maker. Russia is signaling that the U.S. is dependent on
Russia."
She
concluded that, "The Russians are trying to signal to the Iranians that
they will help them out like they did with Iran's civilian nuclear program. On
the other hand, they might want to put pressure on the U.S. to do the deal. It
is just part of Putin's standard playbook to try to game his opponents."
Former
U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 because
he and his administration believed the JCPOA failed to stop Iran from building
a nuclear bomb. Trump’s White House also argued that the Iran nuclear pact did
not crack down on the theocratic state’s terrorism and restrict its missile
program.
Iran’s
regime wants an ironclad agreement from the Biden administration that it and
future U.S. administrations will not pull the plug on a new JCPOA. The White
House said it cannot guarantee that a new administration will not walk away
from the controversial deal.
On
Tuesday, a top U.S. Defense Department official told Congress that Iran’s
regime could develop enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb in a mere 12
days.
When
asked about the secret deals between Iran and Russia over the shipments of
enriched uranium, Mojtaba Babaei, a spokesperson for the Iran mission at the
United Nations, told Fox News Digital, "There's no information about the
claim."
He
added, "Massimo Aparo, deputy director general and head of the Department
of Safeguards, visited Iran last week and checked the alleged enrichment rate.
Based on Iran's assessment, the alleged enrichment percentage between Iran and
the IAEA is resolved. Due to the IAEA report being prepared before his trip,
his trip's results aren't in it and hopefully the IAEA director general will
mention it in his oral report to the board of governors."
When
questioned about the Islamic Republic building a nuclear weapon, Babaei said,
"Iran has no plans to make nuclear weapons because its military doctrine
prohibits the use of weapons of mass destruction in any form."
Experts
on Iran’s alleged atomic weapons program have long sharply disagreed with the
Islamic Republic’s denials and the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran
has exacerbated the conflict over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Jason
Brodsky, the policy director of the U.S.-based United Against a Nuclear Iran
(UANI), told Fox News Digital that the "reported side deals between Iran
and Russia on the nuclear file just demonstrate the risks of depending on
Moscow as a participant or guarantor in a JCPOA-like arrangement. The
geopolitical context has fundamentally shifted with its invasion of
Ukraine."
He
added, "P5+1 [China, France, Russia, Britain, U.S. and Germany] under
these conditions of great power conflict is not a viable diplomatic platform.
Iran has leverage over Russia in 2023 that it did not have in 2015 with its
supply of arms. It’s in this dynamic that the Kremlin can’t be trusted. The
JCPOA of 2015 has no future. It’s time to declare it dead, invoke the snapback
sanctions mechanism, and pivot to a deterrence strategy as the diplomatic track
has run aground."
The
uranium enrichment deal was hammered out during Putin’s visit to Iran in July
2022. The ostensible quid pro quo arrangement between the authoritarian regimes
further solidified their growing alliance.
The
Intelligence officials said, "President Putin, who made a special trip to
Iran to pursue weapons deals between the two countries, agreed to approve the
request, apparently due to his interest in compensating the Iranians for their
assistance." Talks about the secret deals also unfolded between Moscow and
Tehran during August 2022, when Iran’s regime was providing a shot into the arm
of Putin’s war machinery in Ukraine.
According
to the intelligence officials, the Iranians seized the opportunity during
Putin’s desperate need for drones and demanded a "nuclear guarantee"
that would enable Iran "to quickly restore its uranium stock to the
quantity and enrichment levels it had maintained before the resumption of the
agreement."
The
attempt to circumvent the U.S. and the other Western powers would gut the
entire purpose of the Iran nuclear deal, argued the intelligence officials, who
noted, "This would significantly undermine U.S. interests and would give Russia
de facto control over the nuclear agreement in the present and future."
The
Biden administration remains deeply wedded to the Iran nuclear deal, which
would provide Tehran with up to $275 billion in financial benefits during the
first year of the agreement and a startling $1 trillion by 2030, according to
one U.S. think tank study.
In
an unusual move, the Biden administration is following a more dovish approach
than its Western European counterparts who want Iran to be censured at Monday's
IAEA meeting for enriching near weapons-grade uranium. The Islamic Republic has
produced weapon-grade material of 60% since 2021, but new material was
discovered showing 84% purity. Weapons-grade uranium starts at around 90%.
Michael
Singh, an expert on Iran’s nuclear program and the managing director for The
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, urged the Biden administration and
its allies in a late February article on the think tank’s website to "snap
back sanctions" against Iran in response to Tehran’s near weapons-grade
uranium enrichment
The
2015 JCPOA contains a penalty that allows for snapback sanctions and Singh
argued that the sanctions would "bolster military deterrence, and plan for
potential crisis scenarios."
The
row over Iran’s illicit enrichment of weapons-grade uranium comes amid a Fox
News Digital report that Tehran may be behind an assassination and terror
target list focused on law enforcement agencies in Boston.
The
U.S. government under both Democratic and Republican administrations has classified
Iran’s regime as the worst state sponsor of international terrorism.
Fox
News Digital queries to Russia’s government and the IAEA were not immediately
returned.
The
IAEA’s Director General Grossi said on Saturday while in Tehran that he had
"constructive" meetings and a settlement with Iran over its near
weapons-grade enrichment of uranium was reached. Grossi met with the head of
Iran’s atomic energy organization, Mohammad Eslami.
The
IAEA board is scheduled to meet Monday in Vienna to consider the organization's
latest report and could once again censor Iran for its actions.
Iran says it's discovered what could be the world's second-largest lithium deposit
March
6, 2023
"For
the first time in Iran, a lithium reserve has been discovered in Hamedan"
in the country's west, an official at Iran's ministry of industry, mines and
trade said.
The
ministry believes that the deposit holds 8.5 million tons of lithium, which is
often called "white gold" for the rapidly-growing electric vehicle
industry.
Iran
says it's discovered a massive deposit of lithium — a key element in batteries
for devices and electric vehicles — in one of its western provinces.
"For
the first time in Iran, a lithium reserve has been discovered in Hamedan,"
a mountainous province in the country's west, Mohammad Hadi Ahmadi, an official
at Iran's ministry of industry, mines and trade, was quoted as saying on
Iranian state television Saturday.
The
ministry believes that the deposit holds 8.5 million tons of lithium, which is
often called "white gold" for the rapidly growing electric vehicle
industry. If the claimed figure is accurate, that would make the deposit the
second-largest known lithium reserve in the world after Chile, which holds 9.2
million metric tons of the metal, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The
lucrative element is a crucial component in the cathodes of lithium-ion
batteries in EVs, as well as in rechargeable batteries like those used in cell
phones. The metal's price has skyrocketed in the last year due to higher demand
for electric vehicle parts, global supply chain problems and inflation, but
fell more recently, undergoing a correction amid a fall in EV sales and slow business
activity in China, the fastest-growing EV market.
Iran's
lithium deposit news, if true, would be a lifeline for the country's battered
economy.
Weighed
down by several years of heavy international sanctions and faced with a
spiraling currency, which hit its lowest point against the dollar in late
February, Iran would benefit greatly from the ability to export such valued
resources — though its trading partners would likely be limited due to those
sanctions.
Isolated
from the global financial system, Iran continues to draw penalties from Western
nations that accuse Tehran of supplying Russia with weapons that are being used
in its war in Ukraine. Iran's government has also spent nearly six months
cracking down violently on women's rights and anti-government protesters.
In
terms of the global lithium market, such an addition to the world's known
reserves could push prices of the metal down further, depending on Iran's
capacity to export.
Iran
is also one of the world's top producers of oil and gas, but its inability to
export widely due to sanctions has slashed its ability to bring in revenue and
FX as well as its ability to contribute to global supply.
Analysts
at Goldman Sachs see lithium dropping further in price.
"Over
the next 9-12 months, we are progressively more constructive on base metals,
whilst expecting a move lower in lithium prices alongside cobalt and
nickel," a report from the bank's commodities research desk from late
February wrote.
In
the next two years, Goldman expects lithium's supply to grow on average by a
substantial 34% year-on-year, led by Australia and China, which hold some of
the world's largest supplies of the metal.
"Hence,
whilst a recovery in EV sales into 23Q2-Q3 could temporarily lift sentiment and
support falling battery metal prices, the likely supply surge and downstream
overcapacity are set to bring lithium prices down subsequently in the medium
term," the bank wrote.
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