February 12,
2024
It is being
widely reported based on press leaks that the Egyptian government of President
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has privately threatened Israel. Cairo is said to have
warned that the 1978 Camp David Peace Treaty will be suspended “with immediate
effect” if the government of Binyamin Netanyahu tries to take over the
Philadelphi Corridor at the Gaza-Egypt Border and if it expels the Palestinians
of Gaza into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula at the Rafah border crossing as a result
of an invasion of Rafah City. Israel attempted to convince an Egyptian
delegation to Tel Aviv on Friday that Cairo should cooperate with the Israeli
war plan, but allegedly was rebuffed.
The peace treaty
has been the cornerstone of Egyptian-Israeli relations for nearly half a
century.
The Egyptian
government had not said much in public about these reports until yesterday.
Mahmud `Abd al-Raziq of al-Khalij 35 reports reports that on Sunday, the
Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a stern warning to Israel that any operation
in Rafah City would have “severe consequences.” The communique said that Egypt
“continues its contacts and actions with various parties in order to arrive at
an immediate ceasefire, enforce calm, and achieve an exchange of hostages and
prisoners.” That is, Egypt is seeking another Israel-Hamas agreement, along
with the US and Qatar.
The ministry
asked responsible international actors (we’re looking at you, Joe Biden) to
pressure Israel not to do anything that would “complicate the situation further
and cause harm to the interests of everyone without exception.”
Prominent
Egyptian parliamentarian and journalist (he has a talk show!) Mustafa Bakri had
openly said earlier that the Egyptian border is a “red line” and its breach
would threaten the Camp David Accords.
In an interview
with Sky News, the former deputy head of Egyptian military intelligence, Gen.
Ahmad Ibrahim, had said that from his country’s point of view any Israeli
take-over of the Philadelphi Corridor would constitute a breach of the Camp
David Accords. He warned that Egypt’s military is “powerful.”
The Saudi
foreign ministry also condemned the planned attack on Rafah City and any
further coerced displacement of the Palestinians there. The Saudis called for
an immediate ceasefire and a UN Security Council resolution against Netanyahu’s
plan.
This position
was echoed by the spokesman for the Gulf Cooperation Council, which rejected
the Israeli plan to assault Rafah after forcibly expelling the civilian
population.
Saudi Arabia,
Qatar and other Arab states called Friday for immediate, concrete and
irreversible steps to recognize a Palestinian state.
It seems clear
that even countries that are more or less at peace with Israel, whether
formally (Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates) or informally (Saudi Arabia)
have their hair on fire about the proposed Rafah operation.
Although
American newspapers depict Egypt as broke, desperate, and easily manipulated,
my own estimation is that Cairo absolutely will not accept the Palestinians of
Gaza as refugees on its soil. The Sinai is already a security problem for
Cairo, and 2 million radicalized Palestinians would make it ungovernable. No
amount of debt forgiveness would make such a bitter pill go down.
Egypt Threatens
Netanyahu with End of Camp David Peace Accords if he Invades Rafah
Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – It is
being widely reported based on press leaks that the Egyptian government of
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has privately threatened Israel. Cairo is said
to have warned that the 1978 Camp David Peace Treaty will be suspended “with
immediate effect” if the government of Binyamin Netanyahu tries to take over
the Philadelphi Corridor at the Gaza-Egypt Border and if it expels the
Palestinians of Gaza into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula at the Rafah border crossing
as a result of an invasion of Rafah City. Israel attempted to convince an
Egyptian delegation to Tel Aviv on Friday that Cairo should cooperate with the
Israeli war plan, but allegedly was rebuffed.
The peace treaty has been the
cornerstone of Egyptian-Israeli relations for nearly half a century.
The Egyptian government had not said
much in public about these reports until yesterday. Mahmud `Abd al-Raziq of
al-Khalij 35 reports reports that on Sunday, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry
issued a stern warning to Israel that any operation in Rafah City would have
“severe consequences.” The communique said that Egypt “continues its contacts
and actions with various parties in order to arrive at an immediate ceasefire,
enforce calm, and achieve an exchange of hostages and prisoners.” That is,
Egypt is seeking another Israel-Hamas agreement, along with the US and Qatar.
The ministry asked responsible
international actors (we’re looking at you, Joe Biden) to pressure Israel not
to do anything that would “complicate the situation further and cause harm to
the interests of everyone without exception.”
Prominent Egyptian parliamentarian
and journalist (he has a talk show!) Mustafa Bakri had openly said earlier that
the Egyptian border is a “red line” and its breach would threaten the Camp
David Accords.
In an interview with Sky News, the
former deputy head of Egyptian military intelligence, Gen. Ahmad Ibrahim, had
said that from his country’s point of view any Israeli take-over of the
Philadelphi Corridor would constitute a breach of the Camp David Accords. He
warned that Egypt’s military is “powerful.”
The Saudi foreign ministry also
condemned the planned attack on Rafah City and any further coerced displacement
of the Palestinians there. The Saudis called for an immediate ceasefire and a
UN Security Council resolution against Netanyahu’s plan.
This position was echoed by the
spokesman for the Gulf Cooperation Council, which rejected the Israeli plan to
assault Rafah after forcibly expelling the civilian population.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab
states called Friday for immediate, concrete and irreversible steps to
recognize a Palestinian state.
It seems clear that even countries
that are more or less at peace with Israel, whether formally (Egypt, Jordan,
the United Arab Emirates) or informally (Saudi Arabia) have their hair on fire
about the proposed Rafah operation.
Although American newspapers depict
Egypt as broke, desperate and easily manipulated, my own estimation is that
Cairo absolutely will not accept the Palestinians of Gaza as refugees on its
soil. The Sinai is already a security problem for Cairo, and 2 million
radicalized Palestinians would make it ungovernable. No amount of debt
forgiveness would make such a bitter pill go down.
No comments:
Post a Comment