January 30, 2023
Russia on Monday condemned Sunday's drone strike on a military factory in Iran and warned against what it called "provocative" actions that could trigger an escalation in an already tense situation.
"Such destructive actions could have unpredictable consequences for peace and stability in the Middle East," Moscow's Foreign Ministry said.
A U.S. official said on Sunday that Israel appeared to have been behind the overnight drone strike. Iran said it had intercepted the strike and that there were no casualties or serious damage.
Ukraine's presidential adviser to Iran on drone strike: 'We did warn you'
January 29, 2023
The senior adviser to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mykhailo Podolyak, took to Twitter Sunday to mock Iran after it suffered an apparently devastating drone attack at a weapons facility in Isfahan, saying that "Ukraine did warn you."
As evidence of this apparent warning, Podolyak included a screenshot in the Ukrainian version of his tweet - but not in the English one – of a tweet he made on December 24, 2022.
The tweet in question said the following:
"Iran, planning to boose missile, drone supplies for Russia, blatantly humiliates the institutions of international sanctions.. Important to abandon nonworking sanctions, invalid UN resolutions concept, & move to more destructive tools – liquidation of plants, arrest of suppliers."
What happened in Iran?
Over the weekend, an Iranian Defense Ministry facility was reportedly struck in an explosion via drone.
Officially, Iran says the attack failed. However, sources and videos circulating online have indicated that the attack was far more successful than the Islamic Republic admits.
There were four explosions at the site, which can even be witnessed on social media, against a facility developing advanced weapons, and the damage goes far beyond the "minor roof damage" that the Islamic Republic is claiming and which it has falsely claimed before also in other incidents in recent years.
Israel is playing the incident mum, but most Western intelligence and Iranian sources have credited the Mossad with similarly successful attacks against Iran's Natanz nuclear facility in July 2020, a different Natanz nuclear facility in April 2021, another nuclear facility at Karaj in June 2021 and with destroying around 120 or more Iranian drones in February 2022.
There are also few organizations globally besides the Mossad which are reported to have the sort of advanced and surgical strike capabilities displayed in the operation.
Iran drone attack is the latest frontier of Middle East drone wars – analysis
January 30, 2023
Drone wars are developing in the Middle East and these kinds of conflicts are expanding.
An Israeli drone attack on Isfahan was a success, according to Western intelligence and foreign sources, the ‘Post’ reported yesterday. The Wall Street Journal has also said Israel carried out a clandestine drone strike targeting a defense compound in Iran, according to US officials and people familiar with the operation. The US has said it was not behind the attack in Iran.
These reports leave many questions about the incidents in Iran on the evening of January 28. What is clear is that most reports point to the use of drones. At the same time Ukraine, which has been a victim of Iranian drones exported to Russia, has also become part of the story because a senior adviser to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mykhailo Podolyak, wrote on Twitter, "Ukraine did warn you." Russian media has reported on the attack on Iran as well.
What this means is that drone wars are developing in the region. These kinds of conflicts are now expanding.
Drones have been used in warfare for decades. Israel pioneered the use of drones in the 1980s. In those days drones were used for surveillance and they were unmanned or remotely-piloted vehicles, enabling countries to see what was happening on the battlefield without risking pilots.
Drones have developed a lot since then and they have been segmented into different types as part of their evolution. That means there are large drones like the US Global Hawk, which can fly thousands of miles at high altitudes; and there are micro-drones that can be used by soldiers on the battlefield, which have a flying time of half an hour and a short range.
The major development in the last decades has been that countries such as Iran and China have gotten into the drone business. Whereas Israel and the US used to dominate global drone markets, making systems like the Predator, and Reaper in the US; and Heron and Hermes in Israel; today many countries are making drones.
Now what has happened is that Iran’s drone program, which focuses mostly on kamikaze drones; drones that fly one-way missions and where the drone itself is the weapon; has come to impact the Ukraine war. Russia has imported Iranian Shahed drones and used them to target Ukrainians, mostly harming civilians. This has increased the Russia-Iran alliance and raised concerns that Iran may receive technology from Moscow in return. That could boost Iran’s missile and nuclear program.
Israel has been facing Iranian threats for years
Israel, which has been facing Iranian threats for decades, now finds its concerns validated. Other countries now know the Iranian drone threat is important. The drones now threaten ships in the Gulf of Oman, they threaten Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, and Israel, as well as US forces in Syria. Recently drones in Syria targeted the US garrison at Tanf in Syria.
This was likely a drone attack by pro-Iranian groups. The claims that drones were used in Iran to strike Isfahan show that drones are now used everywhere in the region and that in a rare incident, it’s possible drones were used to take out a drone or munition factory linked to Iran’s drone wars. This means we are reaching the era where countries will use drones against drones, where drone wars will include drone vs. drone combat. Each side will not have this technology and try to use it in unique wars.
In the past pro-Iran regime media have accused Azerbaijan of hosting Israelis and being a threat to Iran because of Azerbaijan’s proximity. This means that Iran increasingly views Baku with suspicion. In addition, Iran’s allies in Iraq have in the past made similar claims about drones flown from Azerbaijan. Back in 2019, The Guardian reported, “Shia militants in Iraq claimed that Israel has used drones launched from Azerbaijan to attack targets in the north and center of the country – areas which regional officials say have become transit hubs for weapons being sent to Iranian positions near Israel.”
This means that drone wars are now heating up in the region and that there will be increased drone threats to countries, as well as more rumors being spread about where and how drones are used. This will lead to more paranoia in Iran and also could fuel Iran’s attempt to retaliate for the Isfahan incident. Iran will likely use its own drones for any kind of retaliation. In the past, it has struck at ships in the Gulf of Oman. It has used drone bases in Chabahar for those attacks.
The Iran-backed Houthis, who also have drones, recently bashed Israel during tensions in Jerusalem. The abilities and widespread use of drones in the Middle East now mean that more tensions and battles will be conducted with these systems; including many incidents where the type of weapon used and who is behind the attack is not clear. Iran, for instance, thrives on sending its drones to Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and letting them be unleashed by local proxies. That is also why it sent them to Russia.
Iran bans film director Masud Kimiai from leaving the country, newspaper says
January 30, 2023
Iranian authorities have banned film director Masud Kimiai from leaving the country, according to an Iranian newspaper, with no statement from the authorities and no known reasons for the decision.
According to reports in the daily 'Hamshahri', Kimiai was preparing to attend the Rotterdam Film Festival for the screening of his film 'Betrayal'.
The Independent Film Directors Association of Iran has stated that "Masud Kimiai, a well-known film director, has not been allowed to leave the country, without Kimiai himself commenting on the situation.
The
81-year-old director, who has directed nearly 20 films, recently said he
"stands by the people" amid protests that erupted in September over
the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman detained in Tehran
for allegedly wearing the veil incorrectly.
No comments:
Post a Comment