From Waltz to Hormuz: Why a Gulf Escalation would backfire Systemically

February 17, 2026
‏Peiman Salehi
( Middle East Monitor ) – Most analyses of potential US escalation against Iran in the Gulf remain confined to deterrence logic and regional balances of power. The debate often focuses on credibility, retaliation, and red lines. Yet such framing misses a deeper structural reality. When viewed through the lens of classical international relations theory, a Gulf crisis is not merely a bilateral confrontation. It is a stress test for the global industrial system.

“Map of Straits of Hormuz” Public Domain. Via Picryl.

Trump stalls over Iran strike plan, Iran holds all the aces

February 17, 2026
Martin Jay

Trump may pretend that Israel is a client state of Washington which has to toe the line, but in reality, it is clear that Israel is calling the shots.

When Trump’s bluff meets reality on Iran

February 16, 2026
Leon Hadar

Fantasy that maximum pressure plus military threats will produce Iran’s capitulation has been tested repeatedly and failed each time

The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group are locked and loaded to attack Iran. Image: X Screengrab

Iranian FM holds ‘in-depth technical discussions’ with IAEA chief in Geneva

February 16, 2026

The talks come as the Pentagon weighs a potential ‘weeks-long’ war against Iran

US should benefit financially for any deal to last – Iran

February 16, 2026

Cooperation in high-yield sectors would make an accord between Tehran and Washington more durable, Iranian Deputy FM Hamid Ghanbari has said

Iran FM in Geneva for US talks, as IRGC holds drills in Strait of Hormuz

February 16, 2026

Iran’s top diplomat says he hopes to ‘achieve a fair and equitable deal’ in the high-stakes second round of talks with the US on Tuesday.

Report: US Preparing for Sustained, Weeks-Long War Against Iran If Trump Orders Attack

February 15, 2026
Dave DeCamp

Trump said on Friday that regime change in Iran would be 'the best thing that could happen'

US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln operations in the Arabian Sea on February 6 (US Navy photo)

Iran’s Araghchi slams European powers for ‘irrelevance’ in nuclear talks

February 15, 2026
Foreign minister says regional powers have been ‘far more effective’ than the European countries.

‘Historic Lesson’ – Iran Warns War Would End US Dominance as Geneva Nuclear Talks Approach

February 15, 2026

Iran issues a stark warning ahead of negotiations as both sides prepare proposals amid mistrust after previous agreements collapsed.

“Time is slipping underneath our Feet:” FitzGerald’s The Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyám 1:37

February 14, 2026
Juan Cole
No 37 in the first edition of Edward FitzGerald’s The Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyám recognizes that life is fleeting, but urges that we concentrate on the sweetness of the present moment.

A Bloodstained Anniversary of the Revolution in Iran

February 13, 2026
Behrooz Ghamari Tabrizi
The Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, left the country on a journey to exile on January 16, 1979. Less than a month later, on February 11, the popular revolution triumphed and closed the book of monarchy. The day the Shah left was perhaps the happiest day in my life up to that point. I was at my university campus, Tehran Polytechnic, when the news arrived. I lit a cigarette, another bad habit of teenage years, and left the campus aimlessly just to join the joyous crowds. I had never seen an entire nation so exceptionally jubilant, deeply ecstatic, profoundly euphoric. People were holding up the front page of various newspapers, all of which read, in the largest font that could fit the page, the words “Shah Raft” (The Shah is Gone!).

US smuggled thousands of Starlink terminals into Iran to fuel riots: Report

February 13, 2026

Preparations to sneak in the satellite internet devices into the country began months before the Mossad-backed riots began in January

The Palestinian Question as a Framework for a Century of Tunisian Mobilization

     February 14, 2026
Hèla Yousfi
In September 2025, Tunisia was the scene of an event of considerable symbolic and political significance: the departure of the Global Sumud flotilla for Gaza from the ports of Sidi Bou Said and Bizerte. Supported by a broad coalition of activists, trade unions, associations, and Tunisian citizens, this international initiative was aimed at breaking the blockade imposed by Israel on the Gaza Strip since 2007, drawing the international community’s attention to the genocide perpetrated by Israel in Palestine, and demanding the opening of a maritime corridor for the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza.1 The popular mobilization it has sparked in Tunisia is expressed in the Arabic slogan “Resistance, Resistance, no peace, no compromise,” which is combined with the internationalist slogan “Free Palestine,” reflecting the intertwining of Tunisian mobilizations and transnational solidarity.

Trump hasn't bombed Iran yet. He must be reading these polls. Trump hasn't bombed Iran yet. He must be reading these polls.

February 13, 2026
Jack Hunter

American public opinion is largely against a new war with Tehran. If that isn't staying the president's hand, it should.

The Iranian People between the Violence of the State and the Violence of Empire

February 12, 2026
Fariba Amini
Newark, Del. (Special to Informed Comment; Feature) – Since the brutal repression of the January 8-9 protests in Iran, those of us who live abroad have been numb.  Witnessing an atrocity such as the one that took place is not even comprehensible.

 

Poet Sohrab Sepehri’s statue in Kashan

How the China-Iran strategic partnership really evolves

February 12, 2026
Pepe Escobar
Neo-Caligula continues to bet in what could be defined as The Strategy of the Weaponized Debtor.
We’ve got a thing, and that’s a-called radar love
We’ve got a wave in the air
Radar love
Golden Earring, Radar Love

After weeks of tension, Trump is still talking tough on Iran. Here's what could happen next

February11, 2026
Emma Graham

• Tensions between Iran and the U.S. are high, with both at an impasse after talks last week in Oman.
• Analysts told CNBC a U.S. attack on Iran is unlikely, and that U.S President Donald Trump has no good options when it comes to using force.
• "U.S. forces in the region are not adequate to support a significant long-term military operation in Iran which would be necessary to achieve any major military objective," said one.

In this frame-grab made from video, missiles and air-defense interceptors illuminate the night sky over Doha after Iran launched an attack on US forces at Al Udeid Air Base on June 23, 2025 in Doha, Qatar.

Iran on the Brink?

February11, 2026
Ashley Smith - Houshang Sepehr
The Iranian regime has faced down a wave of mass protest. Merchants, students, workers, and national minorities joined huge demonstrations throughout the country against economic conditions and state repression. The regime has responded with the utmost brutality, killing between a low estimate of 6,000 people and a high of 30,000. This has for the moment repressed the struggle. But the conditions that triggered it remain unresolved. Meanwhile, Trump has assembled an armada in the region, threatening to attack the regime. Tempest’s Ashley Smith interviews Houshang Sepehr, editor of the website, Solidarité Socialiste avec les Travailleurs en Iran, about the roots of the uprising, the response of the state, the role of U.S. imperialism, and the trajectory of the struggle.

What western 'experts' mean when they predict Iran's collapse

February11, 2026
Sami Al-Arian

As protests in Iran are met with US threats of military action, western analysts revive a well-worn narrative that frames unrest as internal failure while obscuring decades of intervention

An Iranian man walks past an anti-US and anti-Israel banner hanging on a building in Palestine Square, after the United States announced the deployment of a naval strike group to the region, in Tehran, on 27 January 2026 (Atta Kenare/AFP)

Iran Talks: What We Know So Far After a Week of Regional Diplomacy

February 11, 2026

Before negotiations resume, Israel lobbies Washington while Iran and Gulf mediators work to contain escalation regionally.