By Pepe Escobar
July 14, 2017
July 14, 2017
Amid
the proverbial doom and gloom pervading all things Syria, the slings and arrows
of outrageous fortune sometimes yield, well, good fortune.
Take
what happened this past Sunday in Beijing. The China-Arab Exchange Association
and the Syrian Embassy organized a Syria Day Expo crammed with hundreds of
Chinese specialists in infrastructure investment. It was a sort of
mini-gathering of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), billed as
“The First Project Matchmaking Fair for Syria Reconstruction”.
And
there will be serious follow-ups: a Syria Reconstruction Expo; the 59th
Damascus International Fair next month, where around 30 Arab and foreign
nations will be represented; and the China-Arab States Expo in Yinchuan,
Ningxia Hui province, in September.
Qin
Yong, deputy chairman of the China-Arab Exchange Association, announced that
Beijing plans to invest $2 billion in an industrial park
in Syria for 150 Chinese companies.
Nothing
would make more sense. Before the tragic Syrian proxy war, Syrian merchants
were already incredibly active in the small-goods Silk Road between Yiwu and
the Levant. The Chinese don’t forget that Syria controlled overland access to
both Europe and Africa in ancient Silk Road times when, after the desert crossing
via Palmyra, goods reached the Mediterranean on their way to Rome. After the
demise of Palmyra, a secondary road followed the Euphrates upstream and then
through Aleppo and Antioch.
Beijing
always plans years ahead. And the government in Damascus is implicated at the
highest levels. So, it’s not an accident that Syrian Ambassador to China Imad
Moustapha had to come up with the clincher: China, Russia and Iran will have
priority over anyone else for all infrastructure investment and reconstruction projects
when the war is over.
The
New Silk Roads, or One Belt, One Road Initiative (Obor), will inevitably
feature a Syrian hub – complete with the requisite legal support for Chinese
companies involved in investment, construction and banking via a special commission
created by the Syrian embassy, the China-Arab Exchange Association and the
Beijing-based Shijing law firm.
Get me on that Shanghai-Latakia cargo
Few
remember that before the war China had already invested tens of billions of US
dollars in Syria’s oil and gas industry. Naturally the priority for Damascus,
once the war is over, will be massive reconstruction of widely destroyed
infrastructure. China could be part of that via the AIIB. Then comes investment
in agriculture, industry and connectivity – transportation corridors in the
Levant and connecting Syria to Iraq and Iran (other two Obor hubs).
What
matters most of all is that Beijing has already taken the crucial step of being
directly involved in the final settlement of the Syrian war – geopolitically
and geo-economically. Beijing has had a special representative for Syria since
last year – and has already been providing humanitarian aid.
Needless
to add, all those elaborate plans depend on no more war. And there’s the rub.
With
the demise of Daesh (ISIS), or at least its imminent loss of any significant
urban center, no one knows in what manner a fragmented, phony Caliphate
“Sunnistan” might be manipulated into cutting Syria from its New Silk Road
future.
Qatar
has already provided a game-changer; Doha has gotten closer to Tehran (common
interests in South Pars/North Dome gas-field oblige), as well as Damascus –
much to the despair of the House of Saud. So, unlike the recent past, Qatar is
not engaged in regime change anymore. But still there are the diverging
interests of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel and, of course, Washington, to
accommodate.
A
possible scenario out of what Putin and Trump negotiated in Hamburg – that was
not relayed by either Lavrov or Tillerson – is that the ceasefire in southwestern
Syria, assuming it holds, could mean US peacekeeping forces in effect
sanctioning the creation of a demilitarized zone (DMZ) between the Syrian Golan
and the rest of the country.
Translation:
the Golan de facto annexed by Israel. And the “carrot” for Moscow would be
Washington accepting Crimea de facto re-incorporated into the Russian
Federation.
That
may sound less far-fetched than it seems. The next few months will tell if this
is indeed a plausible scenario.
The
other big sticking point is Ankara against the YPG Kurds. Contrary to the
ominous and quite possible Balkanization scenario, Washington and
Moscow might well decide, in tandem, to let them sort things out by
themselves. Then we will inevitably have the Turkish army occupying al-Bab for
the foreseeable future.
The
bottom line: that Saudi Arabia gets nothing. And Israel and Turkey get
political/military “wins”. It’s hard to imagine how Moscow could possibly sell
this arrangement to Iran as a victory. Still, Tehran may not have a free flow
Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah route totally back in action, but it will maintain
close relations with Damascus and be engaged in the expansion of the New Silk
Roads.
The
key question from now on seems to be whether Washington will follow the deep
state “Syraq” policy – as in “Assad must go” mixed with support or weaponizing
of non-existent “moderate rebels”; or whether Trump’s priority – to eliminate
Daesh/ISIS for good – will prevail.
Beijing,
anyway, has made up its mind. It will work non-stop for the Iran-Iraq-Syria
triumvirate to become a key hub in Obor. Any bets against a future, booming Shanghai-Latakia
container route?
Source: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/47433.htmhttp://www.informationclearinghouse.info/47433.htm
