February
22, 2024
Ann
Arbor (Informed Comment) – The Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-Based Health Impact
Projections, a joint report by the the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins
University, issued this week, warns that a further 85,750 Palestinians could
die in the next six months from physical trauma and disease if the conflict in
Gaza continues and escalates.
The
figure of 85,750 is a worst case scenario and deaths would reach that level
only if the military assault on Gaza escalates and if the poor hygienic
conditions of the 1.9 displaced Palestinians cause epidemics.
But
if an immediate ceasefire were achieved and no epidemics break out, a further
6,550 excess deaths would occur, or 11,580 if there are epidemics.
If
there is no epidemic and if the Israeli military campaign continues on its
current pattern without a significant escalation, then the death toll would
rise by 74,290 over the next six months.
Since
the Israeli military had already killed at least 29,313 people in Gaza, 70% of
them women and children and the bulk of the remainder being non-combatant men,
the study is saying that the total death toll is now fated to rise to between
35,800 and 40,893 even if not another shot is fired.
If
Israel goes on fighting for another six months just at its current pace, the
death toll rises to 103,603 in the absence of major disease outbreaks.
It
seems unlikely that the fighting will go on at the current pace for six months.
But it seems highly likely that there will be epidemics. The UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported yesterday,
The dire water and sanitation
conditions are also aggravating the state of health in Gaza, with more than
300,000 reported cases of acute respiratory infections and more than 200,000
reported cases of acute watery diarrhoea, of whom more than half are children
under five, among other outbreaks.
The
authors of the “Crisis in Gaza” report say, “Our projections indicate that even
in the best-case ceasefire scenario, thousands of excess deaths would continue
to occur, mainly due to the time it would take to improve water, sanitation and
shelter conditions, reduce malnutrition, and restore functioning healthcare
services in Gaza.”
The
report only appears to consider deaths from military attacks and disease, and
factors in hunger mainly as enabling the latter. People weak with hunger cannot
fight off diseases and famine and epidemics go along with one another.
OCHA
quotes Dr. Mike Ryan of the World Heath Organization as saying, “Hunger and
disease are a deadly combination. Hungry, weakened and deeply traumatised
children are more likely to get sick, and children who are sick, especially
with diarrhea, cannot absorb nutrients well. It’s dangerous, and tragic, and
happening before our eyes.”
Palestinians
are also exposed to the cold and wet weather of February in the Levant, which
weakens immunity.
But
I think they should have considered deaths from hunger alone, since the Israeli
government appears to be deliberately keeping the civilian, noncombatant
population malnourished by limiting the number of aid trucks, the goods of
which are allowed to enter the Strip. The fascist Finance Minister, Bezalel
Smotrich, has refused to allow US shipments of flour to reach Gaza, reneging on
a promise made to President Joe Biden by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu. On February 5, Israeli troops in Gaza fired on a food aid convoy
they had previously authorized, destroying the food.
OCHA
points out that the relief organization Anera “highlighted the ‘silent crisis’
of hunger-induced deaths: ‘In the tragic circumstances of starvation in Gaza,
there’s a compounding issue: many who perish from starvation-related symptoms
aren’t accurately documented. Their deaths often get attributed to other
physical causes, masking the true toll of starvation.’”
I
have argued, based on Gaza health statistics, that thousands are already dying
silently of hunger in Gaza. I wrote, “OCHA says that the Israeli campaign has
left 378,000 people at catastrophic phase 5 levels of starvation. US AID
explains that Phase 5 levels of starvation indicate that “acute malnutrition
levels exceed 30 percent, and more than 2 per 1,000 people are dying each day.”
Given that 378,000 people are being categorized by the UN as at phase 5, this
definition suggests that 756 Palestinians in Gaza are dying of hunger each day,
which comes to a projected 22,680 deaths from starvation over the next month.”
OCHA
observes,
“Catastrophic levels of acute food
insecurity are reportedly intensifying across Gaza, with growing reports of
families struggling to feed their children and a rising risk of hunger-induced
deaths in northern Gaza. The Global Nutrition Cluster is reporting a steep rise
in malnutrition among children and pregnant and breastfeeding women in the Gaza
Strip. The situation is especially serious in northern Gaza where 1 in 6
children under the age of two (15.6 per cent) who were screened at IDP shelters
and health centres in January were found to be acutely malnourished, a decline
in a population’s nutritional status that is unprecedented globally in three
months. In comparison, 5 per cent of children under the age of two in Rafah
were found to be acutely malnourished, evidence that access to humanitarian aid
can help prevent the worst outcomes.”
Let
me just reiterate that the finding is that among the 150,000 people left in
North Gaza, 1 in six children under the age of two are “severely malnourished.”
Severe malnutrition has skyrocketed under the Israeli military’s reckless
disregard for civilian life.
The
London/ Johns Hopkins study concurs: “Before the current conflict, the global
acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) prevalences were
low amongst children 6-59 months (3.2% and 0.4%, respectively). As of 7 Feb
2024, we project they had already risen significantly (14.1% and 2.8%,
respectively), albeit with likely geographical variations.”
They
don’t think a ceasefire will help with this issue of child malnutrition very
much, with GAM and SAM only reduced slightly — “(12.4% and 2.7% at 6 months,
respectively.” In contrast, they fear that if the military campaign continues
for six months, child malnutrition will increase many times over.
As
for the possibility of epidemics, they write: “If epidemics also occur, those
that are projected to cause the most excess deaths are cholera (3,595-8,971),
polio (both wild-type and vaccine-derived; 1,1145-2,444), measles (260-793),
and meningococcal meningitis (24-143).”
So
cholera is the big threat and could cause almost 10,000 deaths over the next
six months all on its own. When I lived in Eritrea in the 1960s I knew a
teenager who contracted cholera. He survived, but spent days expelling liquid
from all his orifices. It was horrible. You die of dehydration.
Could the Int’l
Court of Justice find that Israel’s 56-year Occupation of Palestine is the
Crime of Apartheid?
( Middle East Monitor ) –
Emotions ran high yesterday as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) started
its hearing on Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory, with Palestine’s
UN envoy Riyad Mansour moved to tears as he delivered his final remarks.
Mansour spoke about a future where the children of Palestine would be treated
as children and not as a “demographic fit”; when the human rights of
Palestinians would not be “diminished” because of their ethnicity and identity;
and where two states would live side by side, in peace.
Over six days, the world court is
hearing oral arguments from 52 countries and three international organisations,
following a UN General Assembly request filed in 2022 for an advisory opinion
on the legal consequences of Israeli practices in the occupied Palestinian
territory.
The hearing comes as Israel continues its devastating war on the Gaza
Strip, where it has now killed nearly 30,000 Palestinians and laid waste to
most of the besieged enclave.
The UN’s top court is already
deliberating on a case filed by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide in
Gaza, having ordered provisional measures and finding a plausible risk of
genocide in its interim ruling in January.
All of the speakers during the
hearing will present their views on why they support or oppose the measures
that Israel has enforced in the occupied Palestinian territory. Israel itself
has opted out of the hearing and instead submitted a written argument.
A court ruling is likely to take
months, but could be possible somewhere between April and June, suggested
Victor Kattan, assistant professor of international law at the University of
Nottingham in the UK. Any decision in favour of the Palestinians will be “a
vindication of their rights by the principal judicial organ of the United
Nations,” he told Anadolu.
If the court comes out and holds
Israel responsible for the “prohibition of the crime of apartheid, for
example,” that could be quite significant, explained Kattan, because the UN has
special organs and institutions to deal with combating apartheid, which have
not been used for almost four decades. “They could be used to coordinate
policies aimed at putting pressure on Israel to end its occupation in
discriminatory policies against the Palestinian people.”
Kattan has written extensively on
the Israel-Palestine issue, and said that the ICJ has essentially been asked to
defend international law and to make it relevant again. “In a way, it kind of
reinforces the importance and value of this approach to the International Court
of Justice.”
The hearings, Kattan explained,
will deal with two issues, the first being to look at the ongoing violations
that Israel has committed by prolonging its occupation, denial of
self-determination, major demographic changes, human rights violations and racial
discrimination, as well as apartheid. The second is the question about the
consequences for states arising from these violations of international law.
The legal expert noted that the
participating countries had submitted their arguments well before the 7 October
Hamas attack, so it would be interesting to see how Israel’s allies shape their
arguments in light of its deadly actions in Gaza. “The argument that Israel or
these allies would be putting in front of these proceedings will be that this
does not come under the (court’s) jurisdiction or that this is not admissible.
They may say this is a political issue that needs to be resolved in
negotiations.”
According to Kattan, “They’re
going to simply ask the court not to consider the request at all on the grounds
of jurisdiction and admissibility. However, in my view, it’s a very weak
argument given the special role of the court in matters concerning decolonisation
and the like.” They may also say that this is a bilateral process and that
peace can only come — statehood can only come — when the Palestinians reach an
agreement.
“That may be their argument, but
UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron just came out and said that, actually, a
Palestinian state doesn’t have to wait until the end of negotiations,” Kattan
pointed out. “So, we may already be seeing a shift even in the stance of
Israel’s friends in that regard, and this would explain why [Prime Minister
Benjamin] Netanyahu is coming out with such belligerent statements and saying
that he’ll never accept a Palestinian state.”
Kattan warned that the ICJ proceedings have enough significance that Israel
might do something to divert the world’s attention away from them.
“That could, for example, be
deciding to attack Rafah,” a reference to Israel’s planned ground assault on
the southern Gaza city currently sheltering over 1.4 million displaced
Palestinians, an attack which has been condemned around the world.
Once the oral arguments conclude
on 26 February, the court will start its deliberations and likely give an
opinion in a few months.
“The judges will have heard the
oral submissions, and they have access to written statements and comments on
written statements since last year, which they have undoubtedly read, which may
have also informed them, by the way, on the genocide case as well. The key
points to look out for are how far does the court accept some of the arguments
that Palestine has made, what kind of majorities or dissenting opinions emerge,
and what are the reasons for the dissent,” said Kattan.
“If the court does give a good
opinion, a majority opinion, that the occupation, for example, is illegal or
that Israel is committing the crime of apartheid, for example, and that states
have an obligation to… refrain from trading in arms [with Israel] that will
then be referred back to the UN General Assembly. The General Assembly will
take note of it and then it’ll have to pass a resolution.”
The legal expert pointed out that
these resolutions are not formally binding, and if it gets to the UN Security
Council, we can expect the US to veto any attempts to enforce international law
against Israel. “However, it is possible that some states may take matters into
their own hands if the opinion is drafted well. If it’s got a large majority,
it would give some states the opportunity to enforce international law
themselves.” he said.
These states could contend that the court has said they should not be
trading with Israel or with entities that are operating in the occupied
territories, Kattan suggested.
“It might give a reason for those
states to cut diplomatic relations or to take measures to enforce international
law. So, even if it doesn’t come from the UN Security Council level, it’s
possible for states to implement sanctions unilaterally. Whether they do so or
not, we have to wait and see.”
Regarding the participation of
countries in favour of Palestine, Kattan said that it is “testimony to the hard
work of Palestinian diplomats, who undoubtedly would have been lobbying their
friends to support them in this case.” The case also shows that Israel is “more
isolated” than before 7 October, particularly in the Global South.
“Perhaps it is also becoming more
isolated with states from areas it considers its friends, such as in Europe,”
he added. Initially there was massive sympathy for Israel after the Hamas
attacks, continued Kattan, but that has “now dissipated because of the Israeli
military operations and attacks in Gaza.”
He asserted that Israel’s war on
Gaza has revived the issue of Palestinian statehood and brought it back onto
the global agenda. “It has undoubtedly galvanised the tension and reminded
everyone that this conflict, although it’s very old, is not finished. It is
still there, festering.”
While most states recognise
Palestine, there are some like the UK that have already made a legal
determination that Palestine is a state, but have withheld formal recognition
for political reasons.
“There were some states, for
instance, that voted in favour of the UN General Assembly resolution according
Palestine observer status and statehood all the way back in 2012, but withheld
from upgrading their relations,” said Kattan. “And now we can see that for some
Western countries the idea of recognising Palestine is back on the agenda in
connection with debates on how to end the conflict in Gaza, how to give the
Palestinian people a political horizon, and how to ensure that the conflict
that we are seeing never happens again.”
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