Sonia Awale & Qian Sun
China
plans to build the world's biggest dam, giving it a chokehold on South Asia's
water supplies
A cross-section of the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. China intends to
build a massive dam on this river in the coming years, stirring regional
controversy. Maxisheng18, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Much water has flowed since China
announced in December 2024 that it would build the world’s largest dam on the
Brahmaputra River or Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet to generate 60,000 megawatts of
energy or 300 billion kilowatt-hours per year. The USD 137 billion Medog
Hydropower Station, with commercial operations planned for 2033, has captured
the imagination of media and planners worldwide for its energy potential as
well as its perceived ecological impacts.
The decision has been hotly
contested in India over the possible downstream impacts, as the altered river
flow could impact fresh water supplies and agriculture, while also increasing
the risks of unpredictable floods and droughts. The river supports nearly 130
million people and six million hectares of farmland in the northeastern states
of India, including Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Indian hydrologists have also
expressed concerns that the dam might block sediment flow and reduce the
region's soil fertility.
In response, the Indian
government has proposed to build the 11,000 MW Siang Upper Multipurpose Project
(SUMP) on the river, locally called the Siang. It will also store 9 billion
cubic metres of water to regulate dry season flow, and is envisioned “as a
buffer in case of excess and sudden water releases from dams in China”.
Ironically, many locals in Arunachal, India, have opposed the project and taken
to the streets in protest, claiming that the feasibility survey is being
conducted secretly. They also fear large-scale displacement and possible
demographic change due to the influx of outsiders.
Bangladesh, on the other hand,
which is already suffering from acute water shortage made worse by the climate
crisis, depends heavily on the river, locally known as the Jamuna, for 55
percent of its irrigation needs as well as for drinking and fishery purposes.
The flow of the river impacts more than 160 million people in the country. A
2022 Bangladesh Environment Ministry report says that even a 5 percent river
flow reduction could lead to 15 percent decline in agricultural outputs in
certain regions.
As such, Bangladeshi officials
fear the dam would reduce dry season flow and have asked the Chinese for an
environmental impact assessment, a feasibility study, a climate impact
assessment, and a disaster impact assessment of the dam.
At a time when the anti-dam
movement has gained momentum globally due to their social and environmental
cost, countries in this part of the world are vying to invest in and develop
mega projects on an already fragile Himalayan landscape prone to disasters, now
made worse by the climate crisis. The Himalaya is also seismically active, and
glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), where glacial lakes burst and cause
massive, inland, tsunami-like floods, are a frequent occurrence. Medog
Hydropower Station on the Brahmaputra River is only the latest example of such
an undertaking.
Meanwhile, Chinese state media
maintains that the Medog Hydropower Station is a safe and ecologically
sensitive project that will help meet China's carbon neutrality targets. It has
also been said that “the project will not negatively affect the lower reaches”
and that it “will continue to maintain communication with countries at the
lower reaches”, as well as cooperate on disaster prevention and rescue.
The significance of the
Brahmaputra
The Brahmaputra is a
transboundary Himalayan river spanning China, Bhutan, India and Bangladesh. The
river originates near Mount Kailash in Tibet, where it is called the Yarlung
Tsangpo, and crosses 1,700 kilometres of China before it enters India after a
sharp turn south, and from Bangladesh, where it is known as the Jamuna, it
drains into the Bay of Bengal to merge with the Ganges.
The Medog Hydropower Station is
being built at the “Great Bend” before the river enters Arunachal Pradesh and
then Assam in India, where the river drops 2,000 metres within a 50 kilometre
stretch and becomes the Brahmaputra, the very gradient allowing it to generate
60,000 MW.
Beijing has promoted the dam as
part of China’s green energy transition, stating that it would bolster its
climate goals, including meeting carbon neutrality targets by 2030, by
significantly reducing reliance on coal-based power. Already, China is a global
leader in clean energy with massive investments in hydroelectricity and solar
panels, among others.
Kunda Dixit, a journalist and
author based in Kathmandu, also teaches climate communications, shared how the
dam might impact the region during an interview with Global Voices:
“One
would need to build three to four large coal plants to generate as much energy
as Medog, so from perspective of the health of the planet, the dam may not be
so ecologically harmful, and India might actually benefit from water regulation
on the Brahmaputra as the climate worsens.
But
we have to look at the impact on the riverine ecosystem. We must also ask where
all that energy is going to be used? If it is to feed consumerism in China and
the world, and the quest for endless economic growth that got us into this mess
in the first place, it might not help anybody in the long run.”
China’s justification
One of the core strategies China
uses to shape public opinion (舆论控制) is to establish a clear narrative on a given topic
and then amplify it through a coordinated online ecosystem. This includes
collaborating with well-known influencers (网红), who repost or reframe the
message to fit their audiences, as well as creating fake or anonymous social
media accounts that publish near-identical content to artificially boost the
narrative’s visibility and perceived legitimacy.
For instance, take the case of
the Yarlung Tsangpo River Dam. A simple search for “雅鲁藏布江大坝” on Baidu,
China's top search engine, yields hundreds of articles — many of which repeat
strikingly similar angles. These articles typically follow a unified narrative
that includes several key points, starting with enormous hydropower potential.
Chinese state and affiliated
media emphasise that the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon is one of the most
dramatic and resource-rich river gorges in the world. Deeper than the Grand
Canyon, with a vertical drop exceeding 6,000 metres, China says it is an ideal
site for hydropower development.
It further claims that the annual
electricity generation could reach 300–400 billion kilowatt-hours. This
project, according to official narratives, would lead to a substantial
reduction in coal consumption and CO₂
emissions, and is being lauded as a contribution to global carbon neutrality
goals.
Furthermore, within state media,
the dam is framed not just as an energy project but as a part of a broader
national strategy. Under the “West-to-East Power Transmission” initiative,
Medog would supply clean energy from Tibet to eastern industrial zones, reduce
reliance on coal, and boost China’s energy autonomy. The project also signals
China’s ability to fully develop and control the upper reaches of the river. It
is also positioned as a means to stimulate Tibet’s economic growth and
consolidate national border security. Finally, the dam is portrayed as a tool
for flood control, drought mitigation, and even transboundary water support
during dry seasons.
Meanwhile, Chinese media are
implying that India’s objections are grounded in geopolitical suspicion rather
than environmental concerns. Chinese sources argue that the dam is
run-of-the-river (i.e., not for large-scale storage) and scientifically designed
to avoid ecological harm. These concerns are also situated within a broader
pattern of India’s anxiety about China’s regional infrastructure projects, such
as the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor and China–Nepal Railway, with the
Yarlung Tsangpo Dam cast as the latest example triggering Indian unease.
Speaking on the matter, an
anonymous source from the Chinese government told Global Voices: “The Yarlung
Tsangpo River Dam project is classified as confidential. At present, foreign
media are using this issue to smear and undermine our major national infrastructure
efforts — this is our official line.”
India-China hydro-hegemony
In many ways, China building the
Medog might spell disaster for India, not only ecologically or hydrologically,
but also geopolitically. As the demand for water intensifies and water
regulation becomes crucial due to the increasing impact of the climate crisis,
the dam with China as its uppermost riparian country could be a turning point
in regional power dynamics in South Asia, and seriously undermine India’s
security, stability and influence.
The Indian government has itself
said that the dam’s sheer enormity “could allow China to control water flow,
posing a strategic threat”. In fact, many experts agree that India’s major
concern is not water availability and flow, but security when it comes to the
Medog Hydropower station.
Beijing-aligned sources argue
that India has consistently resisted infrastructure developments in its
neighbouring countries — whether it be China’s projects in Nepal, the
China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, or now, the Yarlung Tsangpo Dam Furthermore,
China sees India’s attempts to lobby the United States and other Western allies
to oppose the project as part of a broader geopolitical containment strategy,
rather than a genuine environmental or humanitarian concern. An official
statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry noted in an interview with the
state-owned CCTV:
“Regarding
the hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, China
has already made its position clear. I would like to reiterate that the
construction of this project has undergone rigorous scientific assessment and
will not have any adverse impact on the ecological environment, geology, or
water resource rights of downstream countries. On the contrary, it will to some
extent contribute to disaster prevention, mitigation, and climate change
adaptation downstream.”
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