January 1, 2023
Prosecutor Morteza Tahmasabi of the city of Damavand announced Sunday that Iranian Police arrested on Saturday night several soccer players who attended a mixed party in the city, 74 kilometers east of Iran's capital Tehran.
These arrests come in the context of the protests that have erupted in Iran following the death of the young Mahsa Amini, demonstrations that have also moved to the Iranian sports scene, with the recent case of the soccer player Amir Nasr Azadani.
The 26-year-old former Rah-Ahan, Tractor and Gol-e Rayhan player was charged by the Iranian regime with a crime called 'moharebeh', i.e. 'enmity against God'. This crime carries execution by hanging, a penalty already suffered by the young Mohsen Shekari and the fighter Majid Reza Rahnavard, hanged in public in Mashad on the same charges as Amir Nasr-Azadani, after a trial without guarantees.
IRGC officials hint at division in Iranian leadership as protests continue
January 1, 2023
Two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials hinted at division among Iran's leadership as anti-government protests continued to sweep the country in the past week.
Hamid Abazari, an IRGC official who formerly served as deputy commander of the Imam Hossein Training and Officer College, stated that senior commanders and officials had "failed and stood against values, [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei] and the regime," during the ongoing wave of protests in a speech last week reportedly broadcast on the local Tabarstan network.
Abazari also expressed condemnation of officials who had not condemned the protests and added that "first-rate officials of the regime" were among those who had stood against Khamenei.
The IRGC's public relations department rejected Abazari's statements on Saturday, stressing that this was Abazari's personal opinion and "does not correspond to the existing facts."
Additionally, Gholamhossein Gheybparvar, an IRGC commander in charge of a unit tasked with confronting protests and riots, criticized "some elites" for staying silent about the protests.
"Some elites were afraid of being harmed and damaged in their world and kept silent and were rejected, and you should know that religiosity does not come and go slowly, but religiosity has a cost," said Gheybparvar on Saturday, according to Iranian media.
"In these two or three months, many were rejected; We do not deny the economic problems, high prices, unemployment, etc., but was it the right of the regime that anyone who comes can insert a knife into the body of the regime?"
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute noted that "the protests and regime crackdown have fractured the Iranian political and security establishments."
Criticism of the government from Iranian clerics and officials has increased in recent months amid the protests.
A special bulletin prepared by media experts for IRGC commander-in-chief Hossein Salam leaked by the Black Reward hacktivist group cited "some experts" as saying that there is an "accumulation of doubts and uncertainty" among the "revolutionary forces." Additionally, the Fars officials noted that the protest movement "considers the greatest achievement of the recent riots to be the loss of people's fear of the military and police forces."
Recently, Mohammad Sadr, a member of Iran's Expediency Council which advises Iran's supreme leader, warned that while the protests have largely avoided economic slogans, the deteriorating economic situation in Iran could spark economic protests "which is very dangerous," in an interview with the Iranian Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper.
The Iranian official added that "dialogue is the best solution" for the ongoing unrest.
"One hundred percent of the demands of the protesters are not impractical, and we can implement some of these demands over time in order to de-complex a little and move towards a peaceful country. If we don't use this method, we will be forced to continue the previous security methods that even if these protests seem to be reduced or collected, will still remain in the heart of society, youth and political figures and will continue to resurface," warned Sadr.
Anti-government protests continue across Iran
Anti-government protests continued in multiple locations throughout Iran on Saturday, including Tehran, Javanroud, Sanandaj, Najafabad and Semirom over 100 days since they began. The protests continued into the night, with many protesters chanting anti-government slogans from their rooftops.
Protesters gathered at the Tehran Grand Bazaar, facing off against Iranian security forces. In Qom, protesters torched a post featuring former IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. In Javanroud, a large crowd gathered at the funeral of murdered protester Borhan Elyasi and chanted "death to the dictator."
Protesters and Iranian forces were reportedly clashing in Samirom on Sunday as well, according to the 1500tasvir account.
Workers at the Arak Refinery, the Abadan refinery and the Azar Mehran oil company went on strike and demonstrated on Saturday in protest against their working conditions.
Iran launches new program to enforce hijab
Iranian authorities launched a new program to enforce the wearing of the hijab in vehicles, sending texts to people who are spotted not wearing the hijab in vehicles, the Fars News Agency reported on Sunday. A similar program was reportedly implemented in Tehran in 2019. In that program, those who received messages were ordered to come to police stations and only released once they signed documents agreeing to wear the hijab. It is unclear how the current program will operate.
The new program comes a month after Iranian officials refuted reports that it had begun closing the "morality police" that enforce the wearing of the hijab.
How can Iran be disarmed amid its civil unrest? – opinion
December 31, 2022
The negotiations between world powers and Iran over its nuclear program have stalled again, and it is unlikely to be revived soon in light of ongoing protests and Tehran’s continued uranium enrichment.
How can Iran’s nuclear program be brought to a stop?
In November, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran has begun to enrich uranium to 60% purity at its Fordow nuclear plant and intends to continue expanding its program.
Enrichment of approximately 90% results in weapons-grade fissile material. Civilian nuclear power requires 5% enrichment. Uranium, between 5% and 90%, has a military objective primarily. The advancement of the nuclear program, along with Iran’s bloody crackdown on protesters and its sales of missiles and drones to Russia, has cooled the atmosphere for talks.
With Republican control of the US House of Representatives following the midterm elections, US policy over Iran’s nuclear program may become more rigid. This comes after President Biden expressed his frustrations in September over the stalled talks and sought other “options” to block Iran’s nuclear program. Prime Minister Netanyahu is bound to push for a more aggressive stance on Iran.
Iran’s choice
With the Iranian regime facing months of domestic unrest and violence, questions continue to be raised about the stability of the government. The question is whether Iran will seek economic relief and a deal as it tries to end the ongoing protests, or alternatively, if it views nuclear weaponry as the ultimate guarantor of regime survival.
The international community should be aiding the Iranian people in their unprecedented uprising against this state sponsor of terror. Iran and Russia have increased their ties to offset international sanctions and isolation. Reports indicate that Iran has supplied Russia with drones and missiles to aid its war against Ukraine.
Kazakhstan, which has tried to maintain a neutral, multi-vector foreign policy, is seeking cargo transit through its country, including between Russia and Iran, a senior Kazakh official said last month. “During the first nine months of this year, 80,000 tons of cargo have been shipped along this [eastern] route, which is an eightfold increase from last year, although the corridor’s capacity allows 6 million tons of shipments [annually],” said Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin last month.
While Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic, has officially distanced itself from Moscow, Astana is still eager to increase its transit role in the so-called North-South corridor between Russia and Iran, according to Zhumangarin.
The Central Asian role
The Central Asian country is also not a novice to nuclear diplomacy. Kazakhstan, under its first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev (who ruled the country from 1990 until 2019), has been intimately involved with international denuclearization efforts and hosted the early stages of the Iran nuclear talks.
Kazakhstan is the perfect example of how Iran and North Korea should eliminate nuclear weapons. Its successes in dismantling the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal and nuclear cleanup have made it a widely studied case. Nazarbayev also ordered the Semipalatinsk nuclear test range to shut down while the Soviet Union was still standing.
Nazarbayev managed to expand the nation’s economy after it had to find a path to development after breaking off from the former Soviet Union. Unfortunately, successful examples of denuclearization, such as Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and South Africa, suggest why the mullahs in Iran are unlikely to follow in their footsteps unless the regime is toppled. Tehran is only likely to follow this model after the fall of the Islamic Republic.
Kazakhstan’s anti-proliferation model
Amid the important visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Kazakhstan in September, there were also critical visits by US nuclear officials aimed at continuing US-Kazakhstan cooperation in nuclear non-proliferation.
US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) personnel visited Kazakhstan’s National Nuclear Center in late September, which included the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS). Jill Hruby, administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), and Frank Rose, principal deputy administrator of the NNSA, followed with their visits to Kazakhstan on October 5.
This visit helped facilitate US-Kazakhstan cooperation. It prompted Hruby to note, “Kazakhstan has been an outstanding partner of the United States on nuclear security and nonproliferation for over 30 years.”
This process required extraordinary trilateral collaboration between the United States, Kazakhstan, and Russia to transfer nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons from Kazakhstan to the Russian Federation and clean up the test sites and other facilities. As a result, 1,040 nuclear warheads were removed from 104 SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missiles and 370 nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.
Kazakhstan’s decision was followed by creating the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (CANWFZ) Agreement, which was signed in 2006 at the Semipalatinsk test site. Denuclearization in Kazakhstan was informed by South Africa’s nuclear experience while also helping to refine nuclear inspection and uranium control processes.
These achievements are why so many regard Kazakhstan as a model for denuclearization for Iran and North Korea.
Future Iranian disarmament
Unfortunately, Tehran and Pyongyang are unlikely to follow in Kazakhstan’s footsteps today. Not only has Russia transitioned from partner to pariah, but Iran is entirely intransigent on the issue of denuclearization.
The window for negotiation has slammed shut. The US can only hope for a denuclearized Iran by supporting the Iranian people vocally and covertly.
The focus of US and Israeli policy on Iran must be to support the people fighting to remove the violent theocracy, bolster internal opposition, and avoid pursuing a deal with the current murderous regime. This should also be the policy of the Biden administration, which has remained relatively silent over the protests and crackdown.
The Kazakhstan model of post-Soviet denuclearization still has many lessons for today and the future. Nazarbayev’s leadership exemplified what can be accomplished, a model of what is required for denuclearization to succeed.
The lessons of Kazakhstan and other examples of successful denuclearization are not “negotiation at any cost” but rather the requirement of sincere mutual cooperation. The regime in Iran lacks the desire, standing, and sincerity required to succeed in nuclear negotiations.
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