March 13, 2023
Saudi Arabia and Iran have given each
other just two months to prove they are serious about Friday’s surprise
agreement to normalize ties.
Before ambassadors are reinstated, the
two nations are likely to be discussing ways to end almost seven years of
hostility, a large task given how far-reaching the implications could be.
The reconciliation happens as Iran
finds itself increasingly isolated on the world stage and Saudi Arabia changes
the course of its foreign policy in favor of diplomacy instead of
confrontation.
With a focus on economic development,
Saudi Arabia and its neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, have in recent years
moved to mend fences with most of their regional adversaries.
Riyadh has walked back from a hawkish
foreign policy it had adopted when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman entered the
picture after his father King Salman took the throne in 2015. It has reconciled
with Turkey, re-engaged with Syria, and supported a ceasefire in Yemen.
But it had left the most difficult of
the dossiers, and perhaps the most important of all, till the end. It surprised
the world last week when it announced a deal to normalize ties with Iran after
years of talks that appeared to have borne no fruit.
The Iran-Saudi cold war has had an
impact on almost every conflict in the region. Its resolution therefore could
have equally strong repercussions. Here’s what the ripple effects may be:
Yemen
Yemen has been one of the countries
most affected by Riyadh and Tehran’s spat. The two nations supported opposing
factions in the 2014 Yemen civil war, and in 2015, a Saudi-led coalition
intervened to fight the Iran-backed Houthi rebels that had overrun the country.
The Yemen war was likely the priority
on the agenda for both countries, said Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the
Middle East Institute in Washington, DC and adjunct professor at George
Washington University.
The country has witnessed relative
calm following an April UN-brokered truce. That truce expired in October but
appears to be holding anyway and Saudi Arabia has been engaged in direct talks
with the Houthis.
In a Saturday statement, the Iranian
mission to the United Nations said the reconciliation “would accelerate the
ceasefire, help start a national dialogue, and form an inclusive national
government in Yemen,” Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported.
Hussein Ibish, a senior resident
scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, DC, told CNN that Iran
may use its leverage against the Houthis to push for a resolution to the war.
“It’s very likely that Tehran had to
commit to pressuring its allies in Yemen to be more forthcoming on ending the
conflict in that country, but we don’t know yet what behind-the-scenes
understandings have been reached,” he said.
A member of the Houthis’ political
wing, Abdulwahab al-Mahbashi, told Lebanon’s al-Mayadeen TV that a resolution
to the Yemen conflict must be achieved through direct negotiations with Riyadh
as the Houthis are not “subordinate” to the Iranians, Al Arabiya reported
Sunday.
Lebanon
Lebanon has been suffering a crippling
financial crisis. Its once-closest Arab ally and benefactor Saudi Arabia
largely disengaged from it following a years-long spat prompted by Iran-backed
Hezbollah’s clout in the country.
Relations hit their lowest in 2021,
when Saudi Arabia and some of its Gulf Arab allies withdrew ambassadors from
Beirut following the then-Lebanese information minister’s earlier criticism of
the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen.
Envoys later returned, but
Saudi-Lebanese ties are still frosty.
Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese
caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati praised the Saudi-Iran deal, with Mikati
calling it an “opportunity to breathe in the region, and look to the future.”
Analysts, however, say that doesn’t
mean that Lebanon’s relations with Riyadh will improve automatically.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal
bin Farhan on Friday said that Lebanon needed “Lebanese rapprochement” for the
situation in Lebanon to improve, not “Saudi-Iranian rapprochement,” Al Arabiya
reported.
The deflective answer suggests that
Saudi Arabia may be separating its grievances with Lebanon from its conflict
with Iran.
“Lebanon is not high on the priority
of policy-makers in Riyadh,” said Firas Maksad.
“There are much more consequential
files in Riyadh to be concerned about before addressing the challenges in
Lebanon,” he told CNN, adding that Lebanon is currently more important to the
Iranians than it is to the Saudis, and that unless that changes, Hezbollah “in
its current form” is likely to remain “the dominant player in Lebanon.”
Israel
The reconciliation has also made its
way to Israel’s domestic political debate.
Hours before the deal was announced,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Italy, extolling one of his
major goals: Normalization with Saudi Arabia.
For Israel, peace with Saudi Arabia is
seen as the apex of normalization agreements. Even though behind-the-scenes
relations have been ongoing for years, full-blown peace would be a major achievement,
and one of the key elements in forming a regional alliance to counter Iran.
Then reality hit later on Friday that
Israel’s longtime and foremost foe, and Netanyahu’s would-be next best friend,
were reconciling. And the blame game began in the Israeli political
establishment.
Israeli newspaper Haaretz cited an
unidentified “senior political source in Rome” as blaming the former
government, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid for the reconciliation.
In turn, former prime ministers Lapid
and Bennett said Netanyahu has been neglecting the situation in the broader
Middle East, focusing instead on his government’s efforts to enact a
controversial judicial overhaul.
Lapid tweeted that blaming him for the
deterioration of the relationship with Saudi Arabia was “delusional,” saying
that while he and Bennett were in power, Riyadh signed an aviation agreement
with Israel, direct flights for the Hajj were arranged and a security agreement
related to islands in the Red Sea was signed with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
“All this came to a screeching halt
when the most extreme government in the country’s history was established here
and it became clear to the Saudis that Netanyahu was weak and the Americans
stopped listening to him,” Lapid tweeted.
“The countries of the world and the
region are watching Israel in conflict with a dysfunctional government that is
engaged in systematic self-destruction,” Bennett tweeted on his own thread.
Netanyahu did not mention the deal in
remarks ahead of the weekly Israeli Cabinet meeting on Sunday, and the Israeli
Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it had no comment on the development.
Iraq
Iraq, which hosted several rounds of
talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, was quick to welcome the reconciliation.
Analysts say it’s in Baghdad’s interest for the reconciliation to go through as
the country had become an arena for Iranian-Saudi rivalry since the fall of the
Saddam Hussein regime in 2003.
“Iran has used Iraq to add pressure to
Saudi Arabia in all areas, including political, economic and specifically
security pressure,” said Ihsan Al-Shammari, a politics professor at Baghdad
University and head of the Iraqi Centre for Political Thought.
Iraq, he said, missed out on improving
ties with Saudi Arabia and potentially large investments in the country due to
Iran’s heavy influence in the country.
Iran-aligned parties have long held
influence in Iraqi politics and have at times caused political deadlock that
has culminated in violence.
Al-Shammari said Saudi Arabia would
want Iran to rein in some of its allies in Iraq, especially armed paramilitary
groups that it sees as a security threat. He added however that that may be a
pipe dream as Iran sees Iraq as a vassal state and that its allies in
parliament will want to preserve their Tehran-aligned interests.
The Iranian foreign ministry didn’t
respond to CNN’s request for comment.
Media wars
Saudi Arabia and Iran have for years
been engaged in a bitter media war, where news outlets allegedly backed by each
government have been accused of inciting against the other.
Iran’s state-backed Arabic language
news channel Al Alam and English language Press TV regularly run programming
critical of Saudi Arabia and are blocked in much of the Arab world. Saudi
Arabia in turn is accused by Iran of funding Iran International, a Farsi
language news channel that regularly interviews Tehran’s adversaries and covers
protests against the government. Iran has labeled the channel a “terrorist
organization.” Iran International has denied connections to the Saudi government.
Saudi Arabia also owns the Farsi franchise of the British newspaper The
Independent.
How the media war plays out will
demonstrate the viability of the Iran-Saudi agreement to normalize relations.
Analysts have said Saudi Arabia has invested in Persian-language media outlets
to build leverage over Iran in talks after over a decade of an Iranian media
assault against Saudi Arabia. The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that
Saudi Arabia has agreed to tone down critical coverage of the Islamic Republic
by Iran International, citing unidentified officials from both countries. Last
month, Iran International said it was relocating its operations to Washington,
DC from London due to “the Islamic Republic’s threats.”
The digest
Polls show Erdogan lags opposition by
more than 10 points ahead of May vote
Polls show the Turkish opposition’s
presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leading President Tayyip Erdogan by
more than 10 percentage points ahead of elections on May 14 seen by many as the
most consequential vote in Turkey’s recent history, Reuters reported. The polls
also show the opposition bloc leading the parliamentary race, at least six
points ahead of Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP) and its allies.
Background: Erdogan faces the biggest
challenge to his 20-year rule after the erosion of his popularity during a
cost-of-living crisis. Victims of last month’s earthquake are also
reconsidering their loyalty in previous AKP strongholds.
Why it matters: The elections will
decide not just who leads Turkey but how it is governed, where its economy is
headed and what role it may play in easing conflict in Ukraine and the Middle
East.
Iran says it pardoned 22,000
protesters
Iranian judicial authorities have
pardoned 22,000 people who took part in anti-government protests, judiciary
chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said on Monday, the official IRNA news agency
reported. “So far 82,000 people have been pardoned, including 22,000 people who
participated in (the) protests,” Ejei said. He did not specify over what period
the pardons were granted or if or when the people had been charged.
Background: Iran has been swept by
protests since the death of a young Iranian woman Mahsa Amini in the custody of
the country’s morality police last September. Iranians from all walks of life
have taken part, marking one of the boldest challenges to the Islamic Republic
since the 1979 revolution.
Why it matters: State media reported
early last month that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had pardoned “tens of
thousands” of prisoners including some arrested in the protests in a deadly
crackdown on dissent, but didn’t specify how many.
Saudi crown prince launches new
airline
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman (MBS) announced the launch of Riyadh Air, a new carrier owned by his
$600 billion Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Saudi state news agency SPA
reported Sunday. The airline is expected to bring up to $20 billion in non-oil
revenue and create more than 200,000 jobs, it said.
Background: Saudi Arabia’s Gulf Arab
neighbors already operate some of the biggest airlines, including the UAE’s
Etihad and Emirates, Doha’s Qatar Airways and Ankara’s Turkish Airlines. Riyadh
Air aims to connect passengers “to over 100 destinations around the world” by
2030, said SPA, and will be chaired by PIF’s governor with British business
tycoon Tony Douglas as its CEO. Saudi Arabia has been in advanced negotiations
to order almost 40 A350 jets from Airbus, Reuters reported.
Why it matters: Saudi Arabia has been
playing catchup with its Gulf Arab neighbors who for years have spent on
tourism, entertainment and aviation. The oil-rich kingdom has been on a quest
to diversify its sources of revenue beyond oil and gas and refashion its image
into a more global and liberal international player.
What to watch
Director General of UNESCO Audrey
Azoulay speaks to CNN’s Becky Anderson about recent efforts to revive the most
cherished sites of Mosul, an Iraqi city that was destroyed during the battle
with ISIS. Mosul was seized by ISIS in 2014 and later liberated in a violent
battle in 2017.
“The country in general, but Mosul in
particular, was completely destroyed, and especially the Old City, by the
occupation, by the consequences of the occupation, by ISIS,” said Azoulay, who
is working alongside UAE experts on a reconstruction project in Mosul.
Watch the report here.
Around the region
Think of the UAE and you might not
immediately think of hip-hop, but in recent years, Dubai has become home to a
small and dedicated group of artists who rap in Arabic about local culture.
Perhaps the biggest star is Mustafa Ismail,
better known as “Freek,” a Somali rapper who was born and raised in the UAE. He
has toured countries including the UK and performed at shows that featured the
likes of Future, Gucci Mane, and Wu-Tang Clan.
“There’s a culture here,” said Ismail.
“There’s a story to tell, and people like me that grew up here want to hear a
story of a kid that grew up in UAE, or Dubai. This is what hip-hop is all
about.”
Almost nine in 10 people in Dubai are
not citizens of the UAE, many of whom have been born and raised in the Gulf
city. Its burgeoning hip hop scene tells the story of the city’s diversity.
Ismail created a unique sound by
performing drill rap in Arabic, a genre for which he is one of the most
recognized artists in the region. His lyrics are a mix of accents and cultural
references that reflect Dubai’s diverse demographic makeup.
“I didn’t really think it’s going to
get that big, to be honest, until my friend told me you’re trending on
Twitter,” said Ismail. “It was my first, kind of, viral video. This is what
gives you another push. So, it’s amazing.”
Other artists are also making an
impact on the local scene.
Christopher Esho is the creator of
RAPDXB, a new platform that curates playlists, releases interviews and brings
artists together to make music. He says there is a culture and history of rap
music in Dubai, but adds that the city lacks a hub for the genre.
“There haven’t been record labels,
there haven’t been communities, there haven’t been concerts that are
celebrating this talent,” he says. “It’s just been a local buzz that’s been
giving the artists exposure.”
RAPDXB recently released its first
album, featuring a number of the UAE’s leading rappers. “The goal is uniting
the culture and cultivating the community,” says Esho.
Such projects, as well as music
festivals and local record labels, have been giving the local hip-hop scene a
much-needed platform, and artists say they’re just beginning.
“The hip-hop scene in Dubai is
growing. If you see the hip-hop scene in Dubai 10 years ago and now, it’s a
huge difference. It is even going to get crazier,” said Ismail.
By Yara Enany
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