March
18, 2023
They
say that there is never a dull moment in the West Asian region and it seems to
be living up to its billing. On 28 February 2023, the news of Iran enriching
parts of Uranium to 84 per cent purity had just caught the world attention
causing alarm on Iran possibly going nuclear and developing a nuclear weapon
when, another development, this time very positive, was reported by on 10 March
2023, stating that Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to resume diplomatic
relations after seven years, in a peace deal brokered by China. The agreement
includes a deal to re-open their embassies and missions within two months. The
agreement includes an affirmation of respect for the sovereignty of states and
the non-interference in the internal affairs of states.
Earlier,
there were reports of Iraq mediating between the two countries since 2021 and
mediated five rounds of talks without any concrete results. However, there were
absolutely no indications that China had taken the lead in the interim and has
now actually succeeded in seeing the deal through. In a region, highly
contested and conflicted due to regional rivalry between the two neighbors
across the Persian Gulf, the deal could not have come at a better time for the
two countries and the region itself.
Hope
for the Region
For a
long time, the region which was forced to choose sides between the two heavy
weight rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran, this rapprochement is great news. It
might pave the way for a greater regional integration and shared prosperity, something
that countries of the region, especially the smaller ones, desperately must be
looking forward to. It also offers hope for a peaceful resolution of conflict
in Yemen which had turned into a battlefield for a proxy war between Iran and
Saudi Arabia ever since Saudi Arabia led coalition launched ‘Operation Decisive
Storm’ in Yemen in March 2015. Media reports indicate that, as a part of this
peace deal, Iran has agreed to halt covert weapons shipments to its Houthi
allies in Yemen. If Yemen conflict does come to an end, it will bring to an end
an eight-year-old conflict and the worst humanitarian disaster in modern
history. It also gives Saudi Arabia a chance for a face-saving exit from an
‘un-winnable war’ in Yemen as well as relief from drone attacks on its oil
installations and airports, as was the case in recent times. Saudi Arabia too
has signaled positively to the deal, stating that it is open to “quickly”
investing in Iran.
The
peace deal also offers hope for a safe passage of trade by sea, both through
the Bab-al-Mandab as well as the Persian Gulf, crucial not only for the region
but global trade too. The 2019 Persian Gulf crisis had severely disrupted oil
trade and had brought the region precariously close to a direct military
conflict.
There
could be hope for Syria too as it marked twelve years of civil war since the
outbreak of ‘Arab Spring’ protests in the city of Daara in March 2011. Saudi
Arabia along with Turkey and more than 30 other nations formed an Islamic
military alliance to fight against rebels and terrorists in Syria (among other
nations like Iraq, Libya), a war where on the opposing side, Iran along with
Russia was supporting the Assad regime in Syria. Although there have been steps
towards reconciliation in the past, the Saudi-Iran peace deal could have a
positive effect on stabilising the situation in Syria.
The
Indian Context
The
West Asian region forms an important part of India’s extended neighbourhood,
and is vital to India’s strategic outlook. India has vital stakes in the
stability, security and economic well-being of the region. The region supplies
about 50 per cent of India’s crude oil requirements, over 70 per cent of
natural gas requirements, hosts about 9 million Indians and accounts for 60 per
cent of remittances received in India annually.
Security challenges in the region have a ripple effect into India and
therefore any instability in the region has a direct bearing on the safety and
security of millions of Indians working there, our energy security and our
steadily growing trade relations. The Saudi-Iran peace deal therefore offers
much hope to India. Although India has not said much on the deal as such, it
has welcomed the deal saying it always supports resolution of conflicts towards
dialogue and diplomacy.
From
India’s foreign policy perspective, two things stand out. Firstly, India does
not believe in a ‘Zero Sum Game’ and therefore its good relations with one
nation do not necessarily come at the cost of its ties with a rival. It is a
product of this ‘strategic autonomy’ exercised by India due to which it has
developed ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ with Saudi Arabia, a special
strategic relationship with its (Saudi Arabia’s) traditional rival Israel and
has had no problem engaging with Iran at a completely different level. Secondly, India’s traditional foreign policy
approach has been to remain non-intrusive, non-judgmental and non-prescriptive
and it has principally avoided taking sides in any intra-regional disputes. It
therefore does not matter too much for India if it was China who brokered the
deal as India was never competing with China to broker the deal. Also, India’s
engagement and interests in the West Asian region do not necessarily compete or
conflict with Chinese engagement as India has over time, developed independent,
deep, trustworthy and strategic relations with most countries in the region.
Iran
and Saudi Arabia form the major power block and any reconciliation between them
opens further opportunities for India. India already has comprehensive trade
and business relations with Saudi Arabia. With Iran, although it has been
restrained in furthering its ties due to international sanctions on Iran
because of its nuclear issues, but India and Iran have been attempting to
revitalise their ties in recent times. Dr. Hossein Amir Abdollahian, Iranian
Foreign Minister was on an official visit to India on 08-10 June 2022, after
which he indicated that both countries are preparing a roadmap for strategic
cooperation. Chabahar port in Iran, developed by India is yet another
instrument of deep cooperation and has huge potential, especially for India in
engagement with Central Asia and Afghanistan. Only recently, on 07 March, India
announced sending 20,000 Tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan via Chabahar port.
The
Saudi-Iran peace deal which promises end of conflict in Yemen too is important
for India. Who can forget the hurried evacuation conducted by India at the
outbreak of war in Yemen, where under ‘Operation Raahat’, India evacuated over
4,000 Indians and 1,950 foreign nationals from 48 countries in March 2015.
Also, any potential conflict between the two main rivals anywhere in the West
Asian region, puts to danger millions of Indians working in the region and is a
logistic nightmare for the Indian government. India will also no longer need to
walk the diplomatic tightrope it has been forced to in the past, to condemn or
abstain its voice during attacks by either side during the Yemen war. Peace in
the region is therefore a welcome step for India.
The
Saudi-Iran peace deal also opens up many trade and business opportunities for
India. If crude oil from Iran comes back into play, it adds to the various
options of cost effective and efficient imports by India. India has previously
tried rupee trade arrangements with Iran and it is currently in talks with the
UAE too. A peaceful region offers opportunities for India to collaborate better
with major countries in the region to promote ‘non-dollar trade’, rupee trade
etc. which are beneficial in the long run. With a number of regional countries
now looking into a future on ‘non-oil revenues’, India has huge potential to
jointly collaborate into futuristic and green technology solutions.
Conclusion
The
year 2023 has started with a bang for the West Asian region and only time will
tell how things eventually pan out. Eventually, it will be up to the two
nations to build confidence, commence diplomatic and trade exchanges and most
importantly build up mechanisms to ensure that this hard work is not wasted
away by any ‘stray or silly action’ by either of the parties.
Also,
this peace deal, brokered by China, is yet another evidence of diminishing
influence of the US in the region. Coincidently, it was announced just a few
days short of the 20 anniversary of US led invasion in Iraq, a folly which
changed the regional dynamics in West Asia forever. For India, leading the
charge this year as it hosts the presidency of G20 and SCO, the deal is
perfectly timed and is a ‘win-win’ situation on all fronts. The Iranian Ambassador
to India too echoed the sentiment, stating that the peace deal would be of
benefit to India since it would help and intensify the stability and peace in
the Persian Gulf region. It is now for India to seek best opportunities from
this deal, especially with regard to its revitalised engagement options with
Iran.
John Bolton, Joe Lieberman say Iran regime change ‘very close’
March
17, 2023
Ex-National
Security Adviser John Bolton and former Sen. Joe Lieberman expressed strong
support on Thursday for ongoing protests against the Iranian government, saying
the women-led uprising was “very close” to ushering in regime change.
“The
events of the past year have really demonstrated that we’ve crossed a line, and
the people of Iran are not going to go back,” said the ex-Trump adviser Bolton
at a Senate briefing, referring to the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini last
fall that sparked nationwide protests against the Islamic Republic.
“We’ve
seen the enormous economic dissatisfaction with the rule of the Ayatollahs,”
Bolton, 74, added.
“And
now we see, after the murder of Mahsa Amini, a direct ideological assault on
the legitimacy of the regime itself.”
“Everyone
has a mother, they have sisters, they have wives, they have daughters, and they
are hearing every day and every night what the women of Iran believe,” he said.
Lieberman,
81, echoed Bolton’s comments, saying the “broadest ever uprising against the
government” was “closer than ever” to bringing about “the liberation of the
people of Iran from the tyranny they have lived under.”
The
remarks come as a bipartisan House majority and 47 US senators have already
signed on to resolutions that back the protests aimed at toppling the Tehran
government.
The
House resolution is modeled after opposition leader Maryam Rajavi’s 10-point
plan for Iran, which would replace the dictatorial power with a secular,
democratic state.
The
Sept. 16 killing of Amini, a Kurdish woman who broke strict hijab rules and
later died while in the custody of the Islamic Republic’s so-called “morality
police,” has supercharged the effort to overthrow the rule of the mullahs and
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The
congressional resolutions condemn the Iranian government for having imprisoned
tens of thousands of citizens, and the Senate resolution further pressures the
Biden administration to respond with sanctions.
Since
Amini’s death, the Islamic Republic has killed more than 500 Iranians. Almost
100 of those were women and children.
“Thousands,
tens of thousands have been arrested, hundreds have been killed, but they’re
still out there doing it,” Bolton said. “And it’s that force of opinion that
will bring the ayatollahs down and give us the regime change we need.”
Bolton
and Lieberman also pushed President Biden to formally renounce efforts to
revamp the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and end nuclear talks once
and for all with Iran.
“It’s
about time the US government declared the JCPOA is dead. It’s over,” Lieberman
said, repeating calls for Biden to enact harsher sanctions.
“It
is an illusion, and has been from the outset, that they would ever enter into
an agreement that would constrict their ability to develop nuclear weapons,”
Bolton said. “They can promise a lot. They’re pretty good at that. But they had
no intention of carrying through on those promises.”
“The
Nuclear deal was fatally flawed from the start,” he added. “The deal itself
helped ensure their path toward nuclear weapons.”
Biden
has privately acknowledged the nuclear deal is “dead,” but his administration
has yet to formally announce its policy stance.
A
bipartisan group of senators also expressed their support at the lunchtime
briefing, including Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (NH) and Cory Booker (NJ),
who sit on the Foreign Relations Committee, as well as Republican Sens. Thom
Tillis (R-NC) and John Boozman (R-Ark.) — all of whom advocated for a free and
democratic Iran.
Obama-era
National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones and former US Special Envoy for
Northern Ireland Paula Dobriansky also addressed the briefing, which was hosted
by the Organization of Iranian American Communities.
“This
cause is not simply about toppling the current oppressive regime ruling Iran.
It is a struggle against all forms of dictatorship, including former rulers,”
Jones said. “As the brave protesters of Iran protest every day on the streets
of Iran, we are reminded that the Iranian people yearn for a democratic and
secular republic.”
Dobriansky
especially drew attention to poisoning attacks against Iranian students, which
she said have revealed the clerical regime is losing its grip.
“Those
brave souls are still on the streets,” she said. “They’re chanting, ‘Woman,
Life, Freedom.’ A freedom revolution is indeed underway.”
The
shift, Bolton added, would bring about what “Abraham Lincoln called for in the
United States.”
“A
government of the people, by the people and for the people — and I think today
we are closer to that point than we’ve ever been,” he said.
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