Tehran
has warned it cannot ignore what it considers a security threat emanating from
growing Azerbaijan-Israel ties.
Tehran,
Iran – Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have been steadily ramping up in
recent months, and divisive incidents have become almost a weekly occurrence.
The
Iranian Foreign Ministry on Friday promised “reciprocal diplomatic action”
after Azerbaijan expelled four Iranian diplomats over “provocative actions” it
did not name.
Azerbaijan
arrested six of its own nationals hours earlier, who were accused of being
linked to Iranian secret services and plotting a coup in the Caspian nation. It
was the latest in a series of arrests in recent months with Baku linking all
suspects to Tehran.
Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev, a close ally of Iran’s historical rival Turkey, blamed
Tehran after a man stormed the Azerbaijani embassy in the capital in late
January, killing its head of security and wounding others.
Iran
said diplomatic relations should remain unaffected as the incident was the work
of a lone gunman with personal motives, but Aliyev closed down the embassy as
he denounced the “terrorist” attack.
Azerbaijan
has also criticised Iran for allegedly backing Armenia in the decades-long
conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Iran,
on the other hand, which is home to millions of Turkic-speaking ethnic
Azerbaijanis, has long accused Azerbaijan of inciting separatist sentiment
inside its northwestern border.
The
Israel factor
But
even with all the points of contention in bilateral relations, perhaps a
fast-growing relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel is what has irked Iran
the most.
Tehran
has been increasingly warning Baku against warming up to Tel Aviv, but the
inflammatory rhetoric reached new heights last month after Israel and
Azerbaijan’s top diplomats discussed “forming a united front” against Iran in a
press conference.
Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov was in Tel Aviv to inaugurate his country’s
embassy after Baku appointed its first-ever ambassador to Israel.
This
new approach, Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned, could constitute a national
security threat for Iran which cannot be ignored.
A
majority of politicians in Iran’s parliament also denounced Azerbaijan’s move,
saying in a statement “the Muslims of the world will consider them accomplices
of the Zionist regime in the murder and crimes against the oppressed
Palestinians”.
There
are a variety of reasons and objectives behind the growing ties between
Azerbaijan and Israel, not all of which are directly linked with Iran,
according to Vali Kaleji, a Tehran-based Caucasia and Central Asia analyst.
He
told Al Jazeera that politically, Azerbaijan needs a Jewish lobby to counter
Armenian influence in the West, especially in the United States, while
economically, Azerbaijan is a major supplier of oil to Israel.
“From
a military point of view, the Republic of Azerbaijan, under the influence of
the Armenian diaspora community, is not able to provide peace and get advanced
military and defence equipment from European countries and America,” Kaleji
said.
“In
such a situation Turkey, Israel, and Pakistan have become the three main
sources of defence and military needs of the Republic of Azerbaijan,” he added,
pointing out this is a main area of concern for Iran.
Will
there be war?
Tensions
between Baku and Tehran have increasingly manifested in military form, with
both sides flexing their military muscles in exercises meant as direct
warnings.
Both
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the army in Iran have held
several rounds of high-level exercises in the northwestern parts of the country
and near the border with Azerbaijan since the Nagorno-Karabakh war ended in
2020, displaying ground and air capabilities.
The
most serious came last October when the IRGC for the first time built a pontoon
bridge over a part of the Aras river that marks parts of the long border
between Iran and Azerbaijan.
Days
later, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian was in the southernmost
Armenian province of Syunik to send another direct message to Azerbaijan and
Turkey by inaugurating a consulate and declaring Armenian security as being
tantamount to Iranian security.
The
move was aimed at countering the “Zangezur corridor” that Azerbaijan and Turkey
wish to establish between the exclave of Nakhchivan and the Azerbaijani
mainland, which would effectively sever a major Iranian transit link with the
South Caucasus and beyond.
Kaleji
said – similar to the ebb and flow of tensions between Tehran and Baku in the
past three decades – the current escalation could eventually lead to a cycle of
de-escalation.
“Although
recent tensions are very serious, there are many factors that prevent military
conflict, including economic and trade interdependence, transit routes between
Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia, and also Azerbaijan’s dependence on Iran’s
communication route to reach Nakhchivan,” he said.
He
also pointed out diplomatic channels remain open through the Azerbaijani
consulate in Tabriz, in addition to the Iranian embassy in Baku and consulate
in Nakhchivan, despite the closing down of the embassy in Tehran.
Turkey
and Russia – which is increasingly growing closer to Iran after the Ukraine war
– can act as mediators, a role similar to that currently played by China in
repairing ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, according to Kaleji.
“However,
the fact is that Turkey and Russia, unlike Iran, do not have a threatening
perception of Israel’s role in the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Zangezur
corridor, and the threat of the common border between Iran and Armenia,” he
said, adding the first step would be to understand those concerns and
potentially follow up with joint regional talks.
CIA Director Tells Saudis the US Was Blindsided By Iran
Normalization
April
6, 2023
CIA
Director William Burns visited Saudi Arabia earlier this week to express
frustration over Riyadh’s surprise normalization deal with Tehran that was
brokered by Beijing, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
According
to the Journal, Burns told Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the US “has
felt blindsided” by Riyadh’s rapprochement with Iran as well as Syria, two
nations under crippling US economic sanctions.
Following
the deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia is poised to normalize with Syria. Riyadh is
expected to invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to an Arab League summit
it’s hosting in May. The Biden administration is against regional countries
upgrading ties with Syria as it prefers to keep the country isolated as US
policy is to prevent reconstruction.
A
US official told Reuters that Burns also discussed intelligence cooperation
with Riyadh. “The director reinforced our commitment to intelligence
cooperation especially in areas of counterterrorism,” the official said.
Also
on Thursday, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s foreign ministers met in Beijing, marking
the highest-level meeting between the two countries since when they severed
diplomatic ties in 2016. At the meeting, they agreed to reopen their embassies
and to work toward other forms of cooperation.
At
a press briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said Beijing was
ready to continue mediating between the two sides. “We are ready to keep
playing a mediating role, support both sides in building trust, dispelling
misgivings and realizing good neighborliness, and contribute China’s wisdom and
strength to promoting security, stability, and development in the Middle East,”
she said.
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