June
28, 2023
On
Monday night, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation for the
second time with the intention to bring the curtain down on the coup attempt by
Wagner “founder” Yevgeny Prigozhin on June 23-24. It was quintessentially a
self-congratulatory speech — well-deserved, perhaps.
The
speech had four principal elements. First, Putin took note right at the outset
the “restraint, cohesion and patriotism” that the Russian people had shown,
their “civic solidarity and “high consolidation,” and their “firm line… (in)
taking an explicit position of supporting constitutional order.”
Putin
forcefully contradicted the western narrative that the coup attempt showed
cracks in the house that he built since assuming power in 2000. French
President Emmanuel Macron rubbed salt in the wound saying that the development
revealed a “crack” existing “in the Russian camp, the fragility of both its
army and its auxiliary forces, such as the Wagner Group.”
Second,
Putin highlighted that the Russian leadership acted swiftly, decisively and
effectively — “all necessary decisions to neutralise the emerged threat and
protect the constitutional system, the life and security of our citizens were
made instantly, from the very beginning of the events.”
Third,
Putin went on to roundly condemn the “mutiny plotters” as people full of
malignity and evil intentions. But he sidestepped their political agenda as
such. After all, a coup is about the usurpation of political power. Presumably,
the topic is far too sensitive to be in the public domain.
However,
Putin touched the issue tangentially through an enigmatic conjecture as to how
if the coup attempt had succeeded, “the enemies of Russia – the neo-Nazis in
Kiev, their Western patrons and other national traitors” would have been the
beneficiaries, “but they miscalculated.” [Emphasis added.]
Putin
didn’t elaborate on any foreign involvement in Prigozhin’s coup attempt.
However, the fact that he brought it up at all for a second time, especially of
external forces having “miscalculated,” must be noted carefully.
Interestingly,
when Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was asked about this in an interview with
RT, he also parried and replied rather cryptically, “I work in a government
ministry that is not engaged in gathering evidence of unlawful acts being
committed, but we do have such agencies and, I assure you, they are already
looking into it.”
But
Lavrov commented on the media reports that Washington contemplated the lifting
of existing sanctions against Wagner PMC. “I do not believe that it is a change
of approach by the US. It is just another confirmation that the US’ approach
depends on what the US needs from a certain foreign actor at this specific
stage, be it on the international arena in general, or in some specific
country,” Lavrov said. Lavrov recalled that the US intelligence agencies were
counting on the success of the coup on June 24.
Fourth,
Putin explained the rationale behind his decision to differentiate “the
majority of Wagner Group soldiers and commanders (who) are also Russian
patriots, loyal to their people and their state.” Putin expressed “gratitude”
for the right decision they took “not to engage in fratricidal bloodshed and
stopped before reaching the point of no return.” He then offered to them the
options of signing a contract with the Defence Ministry or other law
enforcement or security agency or to
“return home” — or even go to Belarus.
For
the Russian public, this was perhaps the most keenly awaited part of Putin’s speech. Putin said:
“I will keep my promise. Again, everyone is free to decide on their own, but I
believe their choice will be that of Russian soldiers who realise they have
made a tragic mistake.”
As
in his first speech on Saturday, Putin did not mention Prigozhin by name. But
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov had disclosed on Monday that a criminal case
against Prigozhin would be dropped.
So,
what emerges is that Putin approved a general amnesty for those involved in the
coup attempt and virtually granted “safe
passage” for Prigozhin and his followers to leave for Belarus, as quid pro quo
for giving up the coup attempt, while at the same time, making a gracious offer to integrate the
Wagner fighters into the Russian state organs or military in the fulness of
time. The Russian public will accept this.
Evidently,
Putin, who is sensitive to domestic public opinion, carefully weighed that
there is a cult of celebrity about Wagner fighters for their courage, heroism,
patriotism and loyalty. The saga of liberation of Bakhmut, a long drawn-out war
of attrition lasting several months, hollowed out the Ukrainian military and
became a defining moment in the war. It is embedded in the Russian psyche.
Equally,
a significant section of Russian opinion is in empathy with a thought process
aired in public in the recent months — not only from Wagner ranks — that the
Kremlin is dragging out the war. Evidently, Kremlin decided that it is prudent
not to prosecute Prigozhin for sedition.
A
can of worms
The
assurance held out by Putin publicly on Monday night would have reassured
Prigozhin. At any rate, he flew out of Russia Tuesday morning by his private
jet and landed in Minsk at 11.30 am.
Now
comes a new twist to the tale. At 3.00 pm Moscow time on Tuesday, Putin gave
yet another speech at a meeting in the Kremlin with military personnel
apparently to express his “gratitude” to those who were on duty on the fateful
days of the coup attempt.
Putin
assured the select audience that “everything will be done to support the
families of our fallen comrades,” etc.
Then, Putin concluded his speech with an abrupt digression into one of
Russia’s best kept public secrets — namely, that Wagner company is a progeny of
the Russian state.
He
said, “those who served and worked for this company, Wagner, were respected in
Russia. At the same time, I would like to point out, and I want everyone to be
aware of the fact that all of the funding the Wagner Group received came from
the state. It got all its funding from us, from the Defence Ministry, from the
state budget.
“Between
May 2022 and May 2023 alone, the Wagner Group received 86,262 million rubles
(approx. $1 billion) from the state to pay military salaries and bonuses… But
while the state covered all of the Wagner Group’s funding needs, the company’s
owner, Concord, received from the state, or should I say earned, 80 billion
rubles ($940 million) through Voentorg as the army’s food and canteen provider.
The state covered all its funding needs, while part of the group – I mean
Concord – made 80 billion rubles, all at the same time. I do hope that no one
stole anything in the process or, at least, did not steal a lot. It goes
without saying that we will look into all of this.”
This
would be a nasty surprise to Prigozhin in Belarus — Russian authorities are
probing him on charges of financial irregularities by his corporate business
house!
This
will hit Prigozhin where it hurts, for his mother Violetta Prigozhina has been
listed as the owner of Concord Catering. Possibly, the vast business empire
that the oligarch built, thanks to state patronage — Concord Management and
Consulting (construction and real estate development), LLC Megaline ( which
hogged most capital construction contracts for the Russian military in 2016)
and so on — can also come under scanner.
This
will not be the first time that the Kremlin punishes an errant oligarch who
strayed into the shark-infested waters of Russian politics. Prigozhin would
know that he will have some important choices to make in the coming months —
and, possibly, even for the rest of his life.
Of
course, Prigozhin’s future moves will be watched keenly not only in Moscow but
the Western capitals as well who are far from convinced that the last word has
been spoken on the dramatic events.
Against
this sordid backdrop, the big question is: Wasn’t Prigozhin’s coup attempt
largely a crisis that was waiting to happen, which western/ Ukrainian intelligence exploited? The heart of the
matter is, scams follow Russian oligarchs like their shadows, and Prigozhin is
no exception. The Russian authorities cannot wash their hands off this shameful
reality.
For,
after creating the Wagner as a company of private military contractors —
similar to Aegis, the British private security and private military company, or
Academi, which works heavily with the US military as well as the CIA — the
Russian defence and security establishment simply handed over its infant to a
powerful oligarch to make a fortune out of it (and possibly share part of the
loot with his mentors), whose actual expertise lies in catering business,
construction and real estate development!
In
comparison, Aegis was led by a former British Army officer, while the founder
of Academi (formerly Blackwater), probably the most well-known of all private
military companies in America, is a former Navy SEAL officer.
When
national security and defence contracts get mired in sleaze and crony
capitalism, it is a sign of decadence. If the US is no longer winning its
hybrid wars — be it in Afghanistan or Iraq, in the Caribbean or in Africa — the root problem is the hydra-headed
corruption spreading its tentacles across the ruling elite all the way to the
Pentagon, the Congress and the White House. Now, one can endlessly argue that
such malaise is endemic to capitalism, etc., but that is neither here nor
there.
Inevitably,
Wagner under Prigozhin was going down the same path as the US’ private military
contractors — about whom the famous whistleblower Edward Snowden who lives in
Moscow has candidly written in his book Permanent Record. Therefore,
fortuitously, Prigozhin’s legacy gives
the Kremlin a compelling reason to clean the Augean stable. Whether that will
happen or not, time will tell.
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