October
9, 2023
The
Indian reaction to the massive eruption of violence between Hamas and Israel on
Saturday belies ground realities and ignores the geopolitical environment in
that region and globally in which this cataclysmic event merits careful
appraisal. It will prove to be unsustainable and can damage the country’s
interests and standing globally.
One,
Indian policy has blatantly tilted toward Israel. What has been a matter of
speculation assumed habitation and a name when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
tweet on Saturday underscored India’s “solidarity” with Israel.
The
resonant expression signifies a historic departure from India’s consistent
stance on the Palestine issue, which followed, quintessentially, the footfalls
of Gandhiji who had the prescience and vision to oppose the creation of Israel
on Palestinian homelands in the cruel manner in which the Western powers
imposed that geopolitical construct on West Asia.
What
prompted this radical shift on an issue where angels fear to tread remains a
riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Two,
Delhi had the benefit of a “preview” of what is to follow in Gaza in the coming
weeks or months. Prime Minister Benjamin proclaimed that the “enemy will pay an
unprecedented price” and promised that Israel would “return fire of a magnitude
that the enemy has not known.” He declared war on Gaza.
Netanyahu’s
capacity for mindless violence is a legion. Yet, Delhi rushed in to react at an
emotional, subjective level.
Three,
the possibility of a ground offensive and even occupation of Gaza is real.
Simply put, India’s patented mantra that ‘this is not an era of wars’ obliges it to mark distance from Netanyahu.
But instead, India risks taking a virtual partisan in the carnage that is to
follow — politically, morally, diplomatically.
At
such a crucial juncture, at the very least, our government being a ‘Vishwa
Guru’ who tirelessly propagates the notion of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakaam (The World
is One Family), gets exposed, warts and all. India’s role should be of a
unifier rather than divider.
Four,
India’s reaction is clearly at odds with the sentiments of the Global South.
For, other than the ‘collective West’, India becomes a lone ranger in the
Global Majority that stands shoulder to shoulder with Israel. Empathy with
victims of violence is one thing, but political support for the collective West
(which is what this entails, in reality, in the prevailing climate in world
politics) is another thing.
Two
days after Vladimir Putin praised Modi’s India sky-high as a stellar example of
a civilisation state role model in a multipolar world in a landmark speech
addressing an elite audience, distinguishing it from the predatory neo-colonial
Western powers, India negated his thesis.
There
is no question that the Indian stance exposes the paradox of its self-appointed
claim to be the leader of the Global South. When the crunch time came, Indian
elites showed their true colours.
Five,
Israel’s reaction, which is already under way, is expected to be massive,
unremitting and ruthless. An Israeli occupation of Gaza is a high probability,
howsoever foolish that might eventually turn out to be. Israeli Defence
Minister Yoav Gallant’s chilling words vowing to “change the reality in Gaza”
will mean that increasingly, it will become difficult for the countries of the
region and the Global South —and even the ‘friends of Israel’ in the US and
Europe — to remain passive.
India
has dug itself a foxhole from where it will be difficult to come out saving
face and battered reputation and credibility.
Six,
troubling questions arise in regard of India’s credentials to be a UN Security
Council permanent member. Whose interests, after all, does India represent
other than its self-interests? This becomes a daunting question for which there
are no easy answers. Succinctly put, the fruits of decades of hard work by
successive Indian leaderships and diplomats are being squandered away.
Seven,
all wars come to an end through negotiations. But this incoming war will be a
long and wide-ranging one. The wily politician in Netanyahu, who is under
immense pressure domestically, facing personal legal charges and holding on to
power with the help of ultra-nationalist and right-wing partners, will seize
the opportunity to salvage his reputation as Israel’s great protector and rally
the political and security establishment in his country, which is deeply
divided, and shall be in no hurry to sit at the negotiating table with Hamas.
On
the other hand, American intention will be to claw its way up the greasy pole
of West Asian politics after the Iran-Saudi rapprochement. In a major display
of force, a vast armada of warships and planes is slouching toward East
Mediterranean. How this force projection will pan out remains to be seen.
The
temptation will be there to reimpose US hegemony in West Asia and to project
President Biden as a decisive leader at a time when, on the one hand, his
re-election bid in the 2024 election is wide open and, on the other hand, the
spectre of a humiliating defeat in Ukraine haunts his presidency.
Suffice
to say, the political interests of Biden and Netanyahu are coalescing and the
stench of Israel’s war will likely touch the heavens and may even engulf other
countries in the region as time passes. The Indian leadership will be
hard-pressed to demonstrate its friendship and bonhomie with Netanyahu in an
apocalyptic scenario.
Eight,
Modi government might as well say goodbye to the grand idea of building an
Indo-Arab economic corridor to Europe in a foreseeable future. That means,
Haifa Port, which was acquired by the Adani Group in a “strategic purchase” at
a reported cost of $1.13 billion with Netanyahu’s blessing, will be
underperforming. Smart economic diplomacy entailed fostering Arab-Israeli
amity.
Nine,
Indian government has blithely ignored that Israel is a state sponsoring
terrorism. Optics matter in politics and international affairs, and at a time
when India’s own credentials are under Western scrutiny, it is doubly important
that it is careful in its words and behaviour. There is an old saying, ‘Show me
your friends and I will show you your future!’ If the intention is to fly on
the wings of the Israeli lobby in North America — or to catch Biden’s eye — it
smacks of naïveté, to say the least.
Finally,
India should know that in the final analysis, sins are forgotten and forgiven
when a political movement that might have had uses of violence in its toolbox
commands the overwhelming support of the masses. Indeed, that is how it should
be. By that yardstick, Hamas passed the litmus test decades ago, much before
the BJP formed a government in 2014.
Hamas
today is the unquestioned leader of Palestinian aspirations, towering head and
shoulders above peer groups and is a mainstream interlocutor for the regional
powers. It even has a representative office in Moscow. Clearly, the Indian
reaction, which tends to view the current development as a ‘stand alone’ event
of terrorism, is anachronistic.
An
enduring Palestinian settlement will have to be inclusive and will include
Hamas after the audacity of hope it has displayed. The BJP leadership should
educate its provincial leaders with tunnel vision on international affairs that
Islamism is not to be equated with terrorism in the global commons, especially
the politics of the Muslim Brotherhood to which Hamas belongs.
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