March
12, 2024
WASHINGTON
– There is a very real chance that the United States will halt the sale of
offensive weaponry to Israel by month’s end should it fail to dramatically
improve the amount of aid entering Gaza, or if it launches a military operation
in Rafah without a credible plan for the million-plus Palestinians sheltering
there.
The
end of the U.S.-Israel relationship as we know it, embodied by the rift between
U.S. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been a
frequent and enduring storyline in the months since October 7. Nearly every
leak – strategic or otherwise – and every official expression of concern has
been heralded as a tipping point that will sway the course of the war, sparking
a ripple effect that will change both the U.S.’ stance toward Israel and the
Middle East, as well as Israel’s own geopolitical relationships.
In
reality, this has failed to lead to any realistic changes in the relationship.
The coming weeks, however, may finally mark the moment where the U.S.-Israel
relationship veers onto a new historical path.
By
all accounts, the incident earlier this month surrounding the Gaza aid
convoy that resulted in the death of more than 100 Palestinians marked
a tipping point for U.S. officials. And while it would be shortsighted to deem
this the sole catalyst for change in strategy, the tragedy did capture all of
the points of concern long held by the White House.
Subsequent
days saw unprecedented U.S. actions aimed at bolstering the aid
entering into Gaza, via airdrops as well as the planned construction of a
temporary seaport. The latter strategy was welcomed more warmly by critics than
the airdrops, which have been derided as an unsafe and ineffectual measure.
Biden’s
implicit frustration with Israel was made explicit during his State of
the Union address in Congress last Thursday, where he delivered his
most thorough acknowledgement of “heartbreaking” Palestinian casualties on the
highest presidential stage.
“More
than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed, most of whom are not Hamas,” he
said, referring to the figures released by the Hamas-run Health Ministry in
Gaza. “Thousands and thousands of innocents – women and children. Girls and
boys also orphaned. Nearly 2 million more Palestinians under bombardment or
displacement. Homes destroyed, neighborhoods in rubble, cities in ruin.
Families without food, water, medicine.”
He
sent a pointed message to “the leadership of Israel,” warning that
“humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining
chip. Protecting and saving innocent lives has to be a priority.”
Biden
went even further in a follow-up interview on MSNBC, warning that Netanyahu was
harming Israel and expressing interest in addressing the Knesset – a step key
foreign policy power players like former Council of Foreign Relations President
Richard Haass have been advocating for weeks.
Perhaps
most consequential, however, was Biden’s answer to MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart on
whether a military operation in Rafah would serve as a red line.
“There
is a red line, but I’m never going to leave Israel. The defense of Israel is
still critical, so there’s no red line where I’m going to cut off all weapons
so they don’t have the Iron Dome to protect them,” he said. “They cannot have
30,000 more Palestinians dead as a consequence of going after … there’s other
ways to deal with the trauma caused by Hamas.”
Biden’s
explicit focus on defensive weapons is notable. Israel has until March 25
to provide the Americans with written assurances that it will abide by
international law while using U.S. weapons, as well as pledging to both
facilitate and not obstruct the delivery of aid into Gaza. Sales would be
suspended if Israel fails to provide written commitment by then.
The
requirement was made clear by the national security memorandum Biden signed
last month – his second groundbreaking measure taken toward Israel following
his executive order clearing the path toward sanctions on extremist Israeli
settlers.
The
March 25 deadline looms as some U.S. lawmakers and a significant part of
Biden’s electoral bloc have taken the level of their displeasure over U.S.
policy regarding the Israeli-Hamas conflict to fever pitch.
Thirteen
Senate Democrats have already effectively supported conditioning military aid,
co-sponsoring an amendment to Biden’s foreign security supplemental that the
White House eventually turned into the memorandum in question.
More
recently, over 35 House Democrats warned Biden that a Rafah invasion would
violate the national security memorandum, jeopardizing the legality of selling
U.S. weapons to Israel (it should be noted, however, that defensive weaponry is
exempt).
A
growing number of U.S. lawmakers, including key Biden allies such as Sen. Chris
Coons (an AIPAC favorite viewed as staunchly pro-Israel), have joined calls to
condition U.S. military aid.
He
told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer late last month that he would condition the aid if
Netanyahu “goes ahead with a full-scale ground offensive against Rafah without
having provided significant changes in how civilians are treated and how
civilians are protected, and how humanitarian aid is being delivered.”
At
least three U.S. senators, meanwhile, have argued that the United States must
immediately suspend military aid to Israel given facts on the ground.
“It’s
long past time for the United States to stop supporting, by commission and
omission, actions that are inconsistent with our principles and our policies
and which make peace between Israelis and Palestinians ever more elusive, ever
more difficult to achieve,” Sen. Peter Welch said on the Senate floor last
week.
“The
U.S. government should make it clear that failure to open up access immediately
and feed starving people will result in the Netanyahu government not getting
another penny of U.S. taxpayer military aid,” added Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Sen.
Chris Van Hollen, behind the Senate amendment-turned-Biden memorandum, warned
that “America cannot be complicit in this ongoing humanitarian catastrophe – we
know what must be done, now we must do it.”
The
Maryland senator, alongside a dozen of his colleagues, requested a briefing
from senior cabinet officials on the memorandum’s implementation by the March
25 deadline.
Demands
on transparency from U.S. lawmakers will only grow in the coming days and weeks
following recent reports from The Washington Post and Wall
Street Journal that the United States has made a series of more than
100 weapons sales that fall below the dollar-amount threshold necessitating
congressional notification and review.
It
is nearly impossible to quantify the implications of Biden suspending offensive
weapons sales. For one, Israel would rapidly find itself in the same position
Ukraine has found itself in over recent months: in desperate need of ammunition
and, accordingly, forced to recalibrate its strategy in real time.
Israel
would also possibly lose a significant element of its deterrence – viewed as
key for holding off Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy organizations from
launching a full-fledged war. It would also lend further urgency to cease-fire
negotiations, which have already failed to meet Biden’s desired deadline of the
beginning of Ramadan.
Any
such move would catapult Israel to the top tier of electoral matters like never
before. Already garnering unprecedented attention among the U.S. electorate,
Republicans would rapidly seize upon the move as evidence of Biden’s animus
toward the Jewish state.
The
move might also potentially help Biden win back progressive and Arab-American
voters, many of whom have voted “uncommitted” in state primaries
in protest of Biden’s wartime policies.
Beyond
this, the suspension of arms sales would draw a new line in the sand for future
negotiations on the U.S.-Israel memorandum of understanding, which is set
to expire in 2028. Whoever wins November’s election will be tasked with
dictating the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Donald Trump has already
said he wants all foreign aid to be treated as a loan to be paid back in full.
Should Biden be reelected, his administration would go into negotiations with
Israel’s conduct in Gaza front of mind.
The Gaza genocide and the death of Aaron Bushnell: What are the
political lessons?
March
9, 2024
On
Tuesday, March 12, International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE)
at the University of Michigan (U-M) will host a lecture by Socialist Equality
Party (US) national chairman David North titled, “The Gaza genocide and the
death of Aaron Bushnell: What are the political lessons?” The meeting will
begin at 6:00pm in the Ballroom, Michigan League, at the University of Michigan
in Ann Arbor. We encourage all of our readers and supporters who live in the
area to make plans to attend.
***
Israel’s
genocidal war against the people of Gaza has now entered its sixth month. More
than 30,000 Palestinians, of whom more than one half are women and children,
have been murdered since last October. The aircraft, artillery, tanks, bombs
and bullets used by Israel to carry out the slaughter have been provided by the
Biden administration. The United States and its imperialist allies in Canada
and Europe are providing massive financial support for the carnage. Following
the example of Hitler’s use of the tactic of the “Big Lie,” Democrats,
Republicans and the corporate-controlled media viciously label opponents of the
genocide as “anti-Semites.”
Since
the beginning of the war, millions of people have demonstrated all over the
world demanding a cease fire and an end to the assault on Gaza. But what has
been lacking is a political strategy that can achieve this goal.
The
suicide of 25-year-old Aaron Bushnell on February 25, an act of extreme protest
against the war, was a demonstration of personal idealism and self- sacrifice.
It is correct to mourn his death and pay tribute to his memory. But his action
should not be glorified as an effective response to the war, let alone one that
should be emulated. The defeat of Zionism and its imperialist patrons requires
the building of an international revolutionary socialist movement based on the
working class.
David
North speaking at the University of Michigan on October 24, 2023.
The
political issues raised by the death of Aaron Bushnell and the socialist
strategy to end the genocidal war will be the subject of a lecture by David
North, the national chairman of the Socialist Equality Party.
North
has played a leading role in the American and international socialist movement
for a half century, and has written prolifically on Marxist theory and
political strategy. His active involvement in the struggle against the Zionist
regime and for the establishment of a socialist and bi-national Palestinian
state dates back to the 1970s. David North’s latest book, published in
February, is The Logic of Zionism: From Nationalist Myth to the Gaza Genocide.
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