July 17, 2024
The American-led
isolation of Iran is springing leaks all over. It seems that wherever Iran
knocks, everyone answers. Except the United States. Instead, the U.S. continues
to close the door, following a long pattern with Iran of undermining its own
interests.
In 2016, Bahrain
followed Saudi Arabia in cutting ties with Iran. But in 2024, it began to
explore following Saudi Arabia in restoring ties with Iran. On March 10, 2023,
Iran and Saudi Arabia stunned the world by announcing that China had brokered
an agreement “to resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their
embassies and missions.”
A year later,
Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa suddenly announced that Bahrain is
looking forward to improving relations with Iran and that there was no reason
to delay. Then, at the end of June 2024, following a meeting by the foreign
ministers of the two countries, Iran and Bahrain announced that they had agreed
to create a framework on initiating talks on resuming diplomatic relations.
“The two sides,” a statement said, “agreed in this meeting to establish the
necessary mechanisms to begin talks between the two countries to study how to
resume political relations between them.”
The move is
likely to worry the United States for two reasons. The first is that Bahrain is
home to the American Fifth Fleet whose security region includes the Gulf, the
Red Sea, and the Arabian Sea, including, especially Iran. The second is that,
as China played a key role in the re-establishing of diplomatic ties between
Iran and Saudi Arabia, so Russia played an intermediary role between Iran and
Bahrain. On June 7, Iran revealed that the message Bahrain sent to Iran
requesting the re-establishment of diplomatic relations was sent through
Russia. The two agreements reveal the growing role of Russia and China in a
region once comfortably controlled by the United States.
But Iran’s
escape artistry is leading to breakouts beyond the region. In July 2023, Iran
was welcomed into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an international
organization that represents 43% of the world’s population and that will grant
Iran top level contact and economic relations with global giants like Russia,
China, and India. Two months later, along with Saudi Arabia, Iran was welcomed
into BRICS. Like the SCO, BRICS includes Russia, China, and India and
represents 41.13% of the world’s population. It accounts for 37.3% of global
GDP.
But those are
not the only doors Iran is knocking on. Though Iran is often criticized in the
West for tightly controlling its elections, the leadership’s hardline choice
lost to the reformist candidate Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian campaigned on
the need to mend relations with the United States and the West. He has gone so
far as to call for bypassing intermediaries in favor of direct negotiations.
Pezeshkian included Mohammad Javad Zarif, who, as foreign minister under
President Hassan Rouhani, played a key role in negotiating the JCPOA nuclear
agreement. And, according to Trita Parsi, an Iran expert at the Quincy
Institute, Pezeshkian is likely to usher many foreign policy people from the
Rouhani administration back into government.
This unexpected
development would seem to fortuitously align with American interests. But the
Biden administration, seemingly incapable of negotiating with anyone and more
committed to enmity with Iran than to de-escalating nuclear tensions, seems
bent on undermining its own interest.
At a July 8
press briefing, National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby was
reminded that the U.S. has said “that they will negotiate or do diplomacy with
Iran when it serves our national interests” by a reporter who then asked, “So,
is the U.S. now ready to resume nuclear talks, other talks, or make any
diplomatic moves with Iran in light of this new president?”
Without even
dedicating any explanation or discussion to the important question, Kirby, in a
word, answered, “No.” As he moved on to the next question, the reporter,
apparently stunned by the answer, cut in: “Wa- – I’m sorry. ‘No’?” Kirby then
expanded on his answer: “Well, your – it seemed like a pretty easy question to
answer. No, we’re – we’re not in a position where we’re willing to get back to
the negotiating table with Iran just based on the fact that they’ve elected a
new president.”
This is not the
first time the United States has spurned overtures from Iranian reformists.
There is a long history that has often had the dangerous consequence of
discrediting the reformist camp and returning hardliners who are more hostile
to the U.S. to power. Former reformist presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani, Seyyed
Mohammad Khatami, and Hassan Rouhani have all suffered the same fate that seems
to await Pezeshkian.
When Rafsanjani
offered to exert Iran’s regional influence and intervene to help win the
release of American hostages being held in Lebanon, President George H.W. Bush
promised that Iran would get something in return because “goodwill begets
goodwill.” Instead, the United States sent word that Rafsanjani should expect
no American reciprocation. Rafsanjani and the reformists were discredited.
Rafsanjani tried
one more time, staying officially neutral when Iraq invaded Kuwait while
allowing the U.S. to use Iranian airspace. In return, the U.S. snubbed Iran at
the Madrid Peace conference and perpetuated the isolation of Iran.
Reformist
President Khatami offered the U.S. the rejection of terrorism, acceptance of a
two-state solution, implicit recognition of Israel, aid in the fight against
the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and invaluable help in setting up a post-Taliban
government in Afghanistan. In return, George W. Bush awarded Iran a seat in the
Axis of Evil. Khatami was stunned, and the reformists were discredited.
In 2013,
Iranians returned a reformist to power. Hassan Rouhani bet everything on
improved relations with the West and negotiations over Iran’s civilian nuclear
program. But Rouhani and the reformists were, once again, disgraced and
discredited when Donald Trump broke America’s promise and pulled out of the
JCPOA nuclear agreement. President Joe Biden’s refusal to return to talks dealt
what may be the final blow to the reformists.
Surprisingly,
though, the reformists have been resurrected with the election of Pezeshkian.
Instead of seizing the opportunity and accepting the invitation to negotiate
with Iran and calming a volatile relationship, the U.S. seems to be sticking
with its policy of discrediting reformist Iranian presidents and rejecting
offers to negotiate a nuclear agreement in favor of a futile policy of
attempting to isolate Iran and preserve hostility. Once again, the United
States is passing on peace and undermining its own interests in Iran.
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