August 14, 2024
It will be just
enough to have a brief look at main hostilities and military developments since
the October 7, 2023 to realise extreme intensification in threats, genocidal
killings and the extent of fighting in the Middle East area.
To begin with,
terror unleashed by Hamas fighters on October 7, 2023 resulted in brutal
killing of 1,200 Israeli civilians and 253 hostages with most of them being
held in captivity till now. This data is quoted according to Israeli tallies.
In response to the October genocide Israel launched an attack on Gaza Strip
which is still under way.
On March 26,
2024 Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in the
Occupied Territories, presented a report called “The Anatomy of a Genocide”
which claims that no less than 30,000 Arab civilians had been killed by then.
Albanese called on countries to immediately impose sanctions and an arms
embargo on Israel, while Washington again accused the council of a chronic
anti-Israel bias.
It would be a
serious omission not to mention that on the June 27, the U.S. House of
Representatives passed an amendment to prevent the U.S. State Department from
using Gaza’s Health Ministry statistics to cite the casualty figures for
Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Israel regularly states that it has no information
on the Palestinian civilians killed and wounded by its bombs. If the bill
passes the Senate, the State Department’s silence on Israeli genocide of
Palestinians will be certain.
In April this
year there was an Israeli air attack by six missiles fired from F-35 targeting
Iranian consulate in Damascus, capital of Syria. Among those killed were Brig
Gen Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Zahedi’s deputy, Gen Haji Rahimi. It was also
reported that Brig Gen Hossein Amirollah, the chief of general staff for the
al-Quds force in Syria and Lebanon, was among the 11 victims.
Iran’s foreign
minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said: “We consider this aggression to have
violated all diplomatic norms and international treaties. Further, in a
propaganda style, he continued “Benjamin Netanyahu has completely lost his
mental balance due to the successive failures in Gaza and his failure to
achieve his Zionist goals.” Some journalists were quick to note that unlike
Israelis, even German Nazis did not attack diplomatic missions and diplomatic
staff. Iran vowed to respond in same magnitude and harshness but apparently
taking heed of president Biden’s request it responded lightly.
On July 7,
Syrian state news reported that Israel had launched air strikes at the Syrian
port Baniyas. In addition, air defence systems operated by Iranian militias
were targeted on the coast close to Baniyas. Also, there were air strikes on
Latakia that coincided with arrival of two Iranian ships. It is noteworthy that
at the same time the U.S. gave a warning to Hezbollah. In response Russia
strongly condemned the Israeli airstrikes at Baniyas, warning of potential
“dangerous consequences.”
As reported on
July 27, 2024, a rocket attack allegedly by Hezbollah. took place in
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The strike fell from Lebanon in Majdal Shams
village, killing 12 Druze teenagers. Israel said it would retaliate.
It did so by
targeting on July 30 Fouad Shukri, the second-in-command of Hezbollah, as
responsible for the tragedy in Majdal Shams. He was killed in the Shia district
of Beirut with the help of an Israeli drone.
Hardly Iran’s
leaders had a few hours to mourn the death of Hezbollah top official Fouad
Shukr in Beirut who is believed to be buried under a mass of rubble, when
Israel assassinated Hamas’s top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on
July 31. Newly inaugurated Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian stated: “We
consider it our duty to avenge his blood.” Israeli media reported that
ministers and officials were told not to comment on Haniyeh’s killing.
On the same day
the U.S. carried out air strikes described by Pentagon as defensive. The
strikes aimed at a base south of Baghdad used by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization
Forces (PMF). It killed four members of the group and wounded four others.
Iraq’s PMF consists of several Iran-aligned armed militias. This is the latest
proof that the U.S. participates in the Middle East regional conflicts against
Iran on the side of Israel.
In
the maze of Israel’s politics: Is genocide “moral?”
To put it
mildly, the Israeli government situation is complicated. Officially, it has
nothing to worry about. It has a powerful defender, the U.S., that supplies it
with super modern weapons for which, unlike other American allies (western
Europe, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan), it doesn’t have to pay. As well, as it
was stated publicly on a number of occasions, there are no limits for any kind
of assistance to Israel by the USA. Vice-presidential hopeful J. D. Vance
advocates sending more funds to Israel in view of the Israel-Hamas war.
Nevertheless, though American military intervention to save Israel is not
excluded, the main fighting must be done by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF).
Above all, the internal politics in dealing with the Gaza strip and West Bank
with many contentious aspects are the responsibility of the Israeli government.
Let’s start with
a few knotty problems within the present Israeli cabinet. The state of Israel
has been seeking to weaken the PA’s authority in the West Bank. Even Israeli
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, perceived in Washington as a moderate, announced
in May 2024 that Israelis would be allowed to return to three former West Bank
settlements from which Israel withdrew in 2005 – violating commitments that
Israel made to U.S. President George W. Bush in 2005. The more radical
right-wing members of Israel’s current government, led by National Security
Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, are more blunt
about their intent to undermine the PA.
Smotrich created
and runs the Settlements Administration, a new governmental body within the
Defense Ministry that is empowered to appropriate land in the West Bank,
construct new settlements, and demolish Palestinian buildings constructed
without permits. As a leader in the settlement movement, he himself lives in an
illegal by international standards settlement, legalizes retroactively the
establishment of illegal outposts, what he characterizes as a retaliation
against other states’ recognition of Palestine.
It should be
recalled that under the Oslo Accords Israel collects taxes on goods that pass
through Israel into the West Bank on behalf of the PA. Before October 7 last
year those taxes comprised around 70 percent of the PA’s income. By now they
have dropped by approximately 50%. At the same time, the international
donations that contribute substantially to the PA’s revenue have vanished.
Smotrich is just too happy to see the PA go broke. Already in May he declared:
“Let it collapse!” As Shira Efron and Michael J. Koplow of Foreign Affairs
note, “In return for agreeing to temporarily extend Israeli banks’ indemnity
and release portions of the PA’s tax revenues, Smotrich has extorted big
concessions, such as approvals for more settlement construction and the
revocation of travel permits for PA officials.” Such a policy by Smotrich may
have far reaching consequences – it may destroy any prospects for future
well-functioning and stable PA state. Consequently, Israel’s Defense Ministry
did not view his actions in favorable light. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu is unwilling to do anything about it even if he really wanted to –
his coalitions survival depends on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
What Smotrich is
doing now is not the pinnacle of his political career. He is dead serious about
expanding settlements with one million of new Jewish colonists. That’s on top
of seven hundred thousand that already settled there.
He arrogantly
declares: “For every country that unilaterally recognizes a Palestinian state,
we will establish a settlement” and boasts that the Israeli cabinet approved
his plan to legalize five controversial settlements in the occupied West Bank
in retaliation for Palestinian diplomatic moves.
On July 13, in
Tel Aviv Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a press conference dealing with
the ICJ ruling that urged Israel to end its illegal control of the West Bank
and Gaza, cease settlement activities, and provide reparations. Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu pointed out in a clever way: “The Jewish people are not
occupiers in their own land — not in our eternal capital Jerusalem, not in the
land of our ancestors in Judea and Samaria. No false decision in The Hague will
distort this historical truth, just as the legality of Israeli settlement in
all the territories of our homeland cannot be contested.” After ICJ Ruling on
Illegal Settlements Israeli Cabinet gave him unanimous support and told him to
“capture” the West Bank. He didn’t.
On July 27,
dozens of U.S. medical professionals who worked in Gaza wrote a letter to
Kamala Harris, Joe Biden and his wife, Jill Biden, describing the deteriorating
situation in the territory. They summed it up as follows:
“’With
only marginal exceptions, everyone in Gaza is sick, injured or both”
In addition, as
Lebanese writer Ali Harb puts it, “the doctors and nurses shared harrowing
details of the impact of Israel’s war, including widespread malnourishment,
ailments and children shot in the head and chest regularly arriving for
treatment.”
If the above
information is correct, one can assume that what is taking place in Gaza is
close to deliberate extermination. We can only hope against hope that Gaza is
not deserted and depopulated and if it happens that it is that it won’t be used
for mass Israeli settlement.
Hearing over and
over again terrifying news about genocide in Gaza one may be interested to know
what people like Smotrich would like to say about it.
In some of the
latest pronouncements Smotrich complained that international pressure meant
Israel had “no choice” but to bring in aid. He said that the main factor
extending the war was the aid sustaining Hamas. His defense ministry colleague,
Mr Gallant was just too willing to agree with him and stated: “Nobody will let
us cause two million civilians to die of hunger, even though it might be
justified and moral, until our hostages are returned.”
Relatively small
Israeli settling activity has been taking place in Golan Heights. The Golan
Heights are located to the northeast of Israel and the west of Syria and occupy
just 1,800 km2. The Heights were part of Syria until 1967, when Israel captured
most of the area in the Six Day War, occupying it and effectively annexing it
in 1981. The USA is the only country recognizing Israel’s annexation. Syria
tried to regain the Heights in the 1973 Middle East war, but failed. Already by
the late 1970s Israel established 30 Jewish settlements in the Heights. In
2000, Israel and Syria held their highest-level talks over a possible return of
the Golan and a peace agreement. But the negotiations collapsed.
By now the
make-up of the population in the Golan Heights is as follows: 20 thousand
Syrian Druzes and 60 thousand Israeli settlers.
Lebanon
might be too much for the IDF after the Gaza fiasco
At the same
time, it should be emphasized that it would be wrong to think that all that
Israelis desire is about settling in captured Arab lands. Let’s openly
acknowledge – Israel has about 60 thousand of its own refugees who were driven
away from their farms and homes from the north of Israel proper by fear of
Hezbollah’s incursions and Hezbollah’s shelling.
How has it come
about? In recent months, Israel has assassinated three of Hezbollah’s senior
commanders. Additionally, the Israeli Air Force has frequently struck weapons
convoys and sometimes killed Hezbollah operatives in the Beqaa Valley, close to
Lebanon’s border with Syria. In mid-July, Hezbollah confirmed the deaths of
more than 370 of its fighters in Israeli strikes since the war in Gaza started.
It has gradually increased the range and quantity of its own rocket attacks. As
a result of it, about 30 soldiers and civilians have died on the Israeli side.
Of a particular concern to Israelis was Hezbollah’s growing use of antitank
rockets, which have a range of up to 6.5 miles and are highly accurate and
difficult to intercept. Most importantly, towns and villages on both sides of
the Lebanon-Israel border have been wiped out. According to the assessments on
side of the border more than 1,000 houses and buildings have been severely
damaged. The border skirmishes resulted in the long-term displacement of tens
of thousands of Israelis and Lebanese.
In line with the
Israeli government decision of October 7, 2023 all Israeli residents living
within three miles of the northern border were ordered to evacuate. As a
result, some 60,000 Israelis moved south. They are mostly staying at hotels
around the country, including in Tel Aviv. All is financed by the state. At the
time the order was issued, it was assumed that it would be temporary; no one
guessed that these people would still be displaced more than ten months later.
As soon as these villages and towns in northern Israel had been emptied,
Hezbollah turned them into a shooting range, thus rendering them virtually
uninhabitable.
Since late 2023
there were American-sponsored moves to bring peace to northern Israel and
southern Lebanon. Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s special envoy to the
region, has been trying to broker a ceasefire. However, Hezbollah has made
clear that it will go on fighting as long as Israel’s war in Gaza continues. So
the fighting goes on.
The situation in
northern Israel provides a powerful push to unleash a war against Hezbollah and
eliminate it once and forever. By June this year the IDF prepared a plan of a
full-scale attack in southern Lebanon and it had been approved. On the other side,
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in July that the group was prepared to
extend its rocket attacks to a greater number of Israeli towns.
It became clear
that a ground attack against Hezbollah could provide a major upheaval in the
region and beyond. It was assumed that such a large conflict would not end
quickly and could have serious repercussions for the forthcoming presidential
elections in the U.S. According to Israeli intelligence estimates, Hezbollah’s
weapons stockpile is more than seven times as large as Hamas’s. Hezbollah has
hundreds of attack drones, 130,000–150,000 rockets and missiles at its
disposal. Also, the group is supplied by Iran with hundreds of ballistic
missiles that could reach every point in all of Israel.
To realize how
devastating the war can be to both sides and how easily the IDF can get bog
down in Lebanon it will be enough to recall Israel’s last war with Hezbollah in
summer 2006 at the time when the group was a far less formidable fighting
force.
The war ended in
a stalemate with Hezbollah, despite losing hundreds of fighters remaining
largely intact.
As things stand
now, the Israeli government remains under the enormous pressure from its
domestic audience; they want a decisive military action that would result in
destroying Hezbollah once and forever. On October 10, U.S. President Joe Biden
gave an important speech in which he promised American help to Israel against
Hezbollah and Iran, including sending two aircraft carriers to the region. He
also warned the Iranian leadership with one word: “Don’t.”
According to the
reports, at Kirya, the IDF’s Tel Aviv headquarters, some officers were weeping
as they watched Biden’s speech. One day later, Yoav Gallant and some of the
generals tried to push Benjamin Netanyahu to approve a major operation against
Hezbollah. Netanyahu knew two things. One, Biden’s “Don’t” applied as much to
Iran as to Israel. Two, to boost Israeli morale he may be loud about “victory
in sight” in Gaza but he knows just too well that a major attack on Hezbollah
would in all likelihood end up in a ground invasion of southern Lebanon and he
doubts whether the IDF is up to the task of fighting wars on two or more
fronts. Keeping it in mind, he prevented for the time being Gallant entering
his office and was quick to co-opt to his cabinet Gantz and Eisenkot, two
former chiefs of staff for the IDF who represented the centrist National Unity
Party. They provided a desirable counterbalance to the hawkish ideas of Gallant
or the other leaders of his right-wing coalition. By now Israeli war on Hezbollah
has been postponed. For how long? And is Hezbollah to postpone its war on
Israel? These questions perturb people in the Middle East region and beyond.
Iran
“running this whole show”
“Iran ‘running
this whole show’,” is the recent opinion expressed by Yuli Edelstein, a member
of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party. A moment later Edelstein added: “Israelis
cannot live peacefully and strike new peace accords with their neighbours while
they are threatened by Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the south.”
Let’s find out
to what extend Iran “is running this whole show”, what the aims of Iran’s
foreign policy are and what are its links with Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis.
One of the main
three goals of the 1979 revolution was independence from the great power
tutelage. It may be argued that Iran scored some success in its pursuit.
Despite U.S. massive sanctions it is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization as well as of BRICS. It can boast a great deal of cooperation with
the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. In recent months,
with the mediation of China it normalized its relations with Saudi Arabia. It
is a regional power with military presence in Syria giving political and
military support to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen whenever
possible. It is well-known that it opposes U.S. military presence in the Middle
East. It is decidedly on the side of promoting a multipolar world.
On July 5,
Masoud Pezeshkian was elected as the new Iranian president. His moderate
electoral platform included talks with the West, doing away with Internet
filtering, and ceasing the morality police’s harassment of women as well as
improving healthcare and educational access for the poor.
His campaign had
all signs of hard going. Initially, he was disqualified from the 2024
parliamentary elections for criticizing the morality police after Mahsa Amini –
a 22-year-old Iranian woman – died in their custody after being arrested for
not wearing her headscarf properly. It will be enough to say that Pezeshkian
was reinstated in the parliamentary elections only after Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei’s personal intervention.
Pezeshkian may
have realized how much he owes to the supreme leader already one day after his
election – the government security apparatus arrested Mohsen Borhani – a
prominent lawyer critical of crackdowns on people protesting Amini’s death.
Right after the inauguration, his attitude to the supreme leader and the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was characterized by polite submission
and respect. That in turn implies that he will unconditionally support Iran’s
strong ties to its so-called axis of resistance, a network of allied non-state
actors featuring Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shiite militias.
After all, the axis is the crown jewel of the Islamic Republic’s defense
strategy, thanks to its regional influence and ability to disrupt economic
chokepoints such as the Strait of Bab el Mandeb.
No wonder,
Pezeshkian declared Iran’s backing for “the resistance of the people of the
region against the illegitimate Zionist regime, as one rooted in the
fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic.” Similarly, in a letter to Hamas
chief – before his assassination – Ismail Haniyeh, Pezeshkian vowed that the
Islamic Republic “will continue to support the oppressed Palestinian nation
until the realization of all its ideals and rights.”
These days
official Tehran doesn’t make any declarations about plans to destroy Israel.
Nevertheless, in state-run media, many references to Israel are expressed in
terms of extreme hostility. In fact, looking back, it can be recalled that in
2005, while addressing a conference “The World without Zionism”, Iranian
president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad described Israel as a “disgraceful blot” that
should be “wiped off the face of the earth”. He suggested to the gathered
students in Tehran that a new wave of Palestinian attacks would be enough to
finish off Israel. Scratching one’s head hard, it can be recalled as well that
five years prior to Ahmadinejad former president Hashemi Rafsanjani called in a
lurid statement for a Muslim state to annihilate Israel with a nuclear strike.
Core
allies of the “axis of resistance”
What are the
attitudes to Israel of those associated with Hamas and Hezbollah? They are not
only fighters but, optimistically speaking, possible peace negotiators.
A close look at
Hamas discloses a rather frightening picture. The not so distant events in the
Middle East expose a strong desire of war – with the use of terrorist means –
by democratically elected Hamas government in Gaza against the democratic state
of Israel. In this context it should be recalled that in the elections held on
January 26, 2006 figures from Palestinian officials confirmed Hamas’s shock win
in the Palestinian parliamentary election over the once-dominant Fatah party.
Polls had
predicted a coalition between the two parties as the most likely outcome of the
vote, but a surprise surge in support for the Islamists gave a lead to a party
that calls for the destruction of the state of Israel. The preliminary count
put Hamas on 76 seats to Fatah’s 43 in the 132-seat chamber. The result dashed
any hopes for peace between Israelis and the Palestinians. The then U.S.
president George Bush said the United States would not deal with a Hamas-led
government unless the party recognized Israel’s right to exist. It is commonly
known that since then, prior to October 7, 2023 Hamas had been working
ceaselessly collecting weapons in underground stores and building about 500
kilometers of bunkers, tunnels and shelters deep underground.
I can recall a
mini debate in The Australian by its foreign editor Greg Sheridan in 2011 when
a resolution for Palestinian statehood was brought to the UN General Assembly.
The editor opposed establishing Palestinian state on the basis of Hamas’s views
in line with the Hamas Charter of 1987 containing the most violent language and
calling for the destruction of Israel. To those unfamiliar with the full
dimension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict it might be worth citing just a
preamble of it which reads: “Israel will exist and will continue to exist until
Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it.”
In a revised
version of the 2017 charter with softened Islamist rhetoric, one can find the
insistence on the right of Palestinian state to be “from the river to the sea”
but in two places it makes hints about two-state solution. Those hints may be
considered as possibly first steps toward facilitating peaceful negotiations.
The creation of
Hezbollah coincided with Iran’s efforts to export its 1979 revolution among
other things to confront IDF after it invaded Lebanon in 1982. It was trained
and supplied by Iran. Nowadays, it is possibly one of the best-armed non-state
groups in the world. Its stockpile includes about 100,000 rockets and drones.
Its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah boasts that his group numbers 100,000
fighters. Hezbollah has ministers in the Lebanese government and members of
parliament. It managed to convince many Lebanese Shias, that the group defends
Lebanon from Israel. It is a sworn enemy of Israel and openly calls for its
destruction.
U.S.
“iron clad” support for Israel
Joe Biden has
assured Israeli government publicly a number of times about American “iron
clad” support for Israel. However, after a recent visit by Netanyahu to the
USA. Biden, concerned about Chinese involvement in forming a Palestinian
Authority combining Fatah and Hamas, authorized a secret U.S., Israel and UAE
meeting in Abu Dhabi supposedly about post-war Gaza plan. Apart from some
material assistance to Palestinians in Gaza it ended in a total fiasco. Most
essentially, because Netanyahu refused PA an official governance role and
rejected a two-state solution. Not only that: Biden falsely claimed that Hamas
in disregard to his peace plan (how manty people heard about it?) is the only
one willing to continue war. What’s more, Biden recommends to “eliminate” the
group. Is it how the “iron clad” support is to ensure peace in Gaza?
While two-state
solution seems to be a taboo subject in electoral campaign by Kamala Harris and
her running mate Tim Walz, they said enough to cast doubts on it. For instance,
Harris during her Senate tenure in 2017, co-sponsored a measure to condemn a United
Nations Security Council resolution that denounced Israel’s illegal settlements
in the occupied West Bank. Is Walz as pro-Israeli as Harris? Yes, as a
congressman, Waltz’s actions were similar to those of Harris. Between 2007 and
2019, he voted in favor of Israel a number of times. As well, he voted to
condemn the United Nations resolution that declared Israeli settlements on the
West Bank illegal. Such votes condemning the UN resolution by Harris and Walz
rule out any prospect of an independent Palestinian state.
Trump’s
cherished ally
The presidential
nominee Trump, while talking about his policies and believes in 2015, said some
things about Muslim migrants which are very much valid in his 2024 presidential
campaign. So he said he would send back Syrian migrants seeking asylum in the
U.S. His justification for this was “that the Paris attacks prove that even a
handful of terrorists posing as migrants could do a catastrophic damage.”
In his current
electoral program, he withdrew from the previous bipartisan consensus by saying
he wasn’t interested in a separate Palestinian state. He calls Israel a
“cherished ally.” It should be recalled that in 2017, he recognized Jerusalem
as the capital of Israel and moved the U.S. Embassy there from Tel Aviv and in
2019, he recognized Israeli sovereignty over the disputed territory of Golan
Heights. The picture of his view of the Middle East wouldn’t be complete
without including Iran and Syria.
Trump’s
presidential term focused on isolating Iran, which he calls “the leading state
sponsor of terrorism.” He withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and
re-imposed sweeping economic sanctions on the country boasting that Iran’s
economy was “shattered.” In 2020, he ordered the assassination of Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps leader Qasem Soleimani.
One of his final
decisions during his presidential term, was designating the Iran-backed,
Yemen-based Houthi rebel movement as a foreign terrorist organization. Ignoring
Syrian and some international protests he has favored leaving some troops in
Syria for access to its oil.
His running mate
comments such as “If you’re going to punch the Iranians, you punch them hard”
or “you want to get this war (in Gaza) over and as quickly as possible, because
the longer it goes on the harder [Israel’s] situation becomes” leave no doubts that
Trump and Vance will act in unison, if elected.
How hard Trump
is ready to hit Iran came out during his recent meeting with Netanyahu in the
Congress. Sharing a clip of Israeli PM Netanyahu mentioning alleged Iranian
plots against Trump he said he hoped the U.S. would “obliterate” Iran if U.S.
leaders are threatened.
Multipolar
world order: The U.S. must recognize new realities or we are all doomed
The first thing
that comes to one’s mind when analyzing the conflict is that the U.S. and its
allies do not want to notice that the world is no longer the same. Looking back
20 years or so, at the military potential of the main regional players in the
Middle East the situation has undergone a remarkable shift in favor of Israel’s
rivals. Israel’s IDF has the most modern equipment and technologies but Iran,
Hezbollah and even Hamas did a lot of expanding and catching up. No wonder,
Israel despite strenuous efforts, American expertise, logistics and political
guidance has not been able to crush the resistance of Palestinian fighters in
the Gaza Strip. According to IDF’s own assessments it is not in a position to
defeat Hezbollah let alone overcome Iran. That’s why, in line with Biden’s
earlier promises, despite already having a few bases in the region, the United
States has just deployed additional warships and fighter jets supposedly to
defend the State of Israel.
The second
feature of the prevailing conflict in the Middle East is its long-term nature
and ever-present number of conflicts that could be classified as postponed
wars. A short list of such conflicts would include, Hamas versus Israel,
Hezbollah versus Israel, Iran versus Israel and Yemen (Houthis) versus Israel.
Obviously, these armed groups and countries are not only against Israel but it
is understood that Israel is against them as well. As the United States is
deeply involved on the side of Israel, it has to face military opponents
against its armed forces. The same may apply to a lesser extent to such
countries as France and the UK.
Another striking
feature of the Middle Eastern scenario is that the U.S. seem to be acting as if
it was a peacemaker and defender of democracy. It has just gone ahead with
another “peace” initiative. Namely, through behind scenes moves combined with
sending emissaries to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza in return for abandoning
Iran’s retaliation against Israel. That was the hope among regional leaders
gathered at an emergency summit in Jeddah. Proving how sober-minded Pezeshkian
was he commented on the initiative: “If America and Western countries really
want to prevent war and insecurity in the region, to prove this claim, they
should immediately stop selling arms and supporting the Zionist regime and
force this regime to stop the genocide and attacks on Gaza and accept a
ceasefire.”
Riyad Mansour,
Palestine’s Permanent Observer at the UN was equally rational when he said:
“The region does not need escalation. What the region needs is a ceasefire.
What the region needs is to address legitimate rights. I have a feeling that
Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to drag President Biden into a war with Iran”
Countries such
as the U.S., Qatar and Egypt, issued a joint statement urging Israel and Hamas
to resume talks to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. What are the reasons
for it? Is it because Biden and Harris unwelcome escalation of conflict close
to the U.S. presidential elections? Another reason could be that those
misinformed and uninformed which abound on our planet can perceive all this as
U.S. peacemaking activity boosting its favorable image all over the world. The
talks about a ceasefire in Gaza look absurd. How can they negotiate any Gaza
ceasefire without Gaza representatives. How can a newly appointed political
chief of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar participate in negotiations? Since the October 7,
2023 he has been operating from Gaza tunnels. How can one envisage him
communicating with negotiators let alone arrive at the negotiating table in
person if Netanyahu declared that he would be liquidated?
What is this
ceasefire initiative all about? For anyone familiar with the Israel-Palestine
affairs the peace initiative is just a bluff. Biden can hardly influence
Netanyahu. He is flooding Israel with billions of dollars in military gear
regardless. There is no reason whatsoever to think that Netanyahu’s stand on
Gaza and the two-state solution will be any different than it was during recent
supposedly peacemaking meeting in Abu Dhabi.
And now a
crucial question: Has Iran really abandoned its retaliation plans? The supreme
leader, Ali Khamenei who solemnly promised to “harshly punish” Israel over the
assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the IRGC
confirms the order to “punish” Israel will be implemented. The supreme leader
doesn’t mince his words. This, in all likelihood will be coordinated with the
attack by Hezbollah. The group has its own scores to settle with Israel. The
group’s top military commander, Fu’ad Shukr was killed in Lebanon by Israel one
day before killing Haniyeh in Tehran. Consequently, a new scenario triggering
regional war is probable.
Most
importantly, the region has been crucial (oil, anti-terrorism and strategic
location) particularly to Russia and China. Those countries have taken some
decisive countermeasures to prevent the U.S. “America First” domination of the
region.
China has in
recent months demonstrated growing diplomatic influence in the Middle East. It
enjoys strong ties with Arab nations and Iran. Significantly, last year, China
brokered a peace deal between longstanding regional foes Saudi Arabia and Iran.
In addition,
China called for a larger-scale Israeli-Palestinian peace conference and a
specific timetable to implement a two-state solution. Unfortunately, in the
light of the latest anti-Palestine western actions Chinese calls must have
fallen on death ears of high-ranking Israeli and American officials.
Let’s now
consider the option of Iran’s obliteration by the U.S. in response to the
forthcoming Iranian retaliation or in the post November 5 unfolding. Can anyone
in their right senses imagine Russia’s or China’s inaction? Under the gloomy
scenario of U.S. turning Iran to ashes with massive carpet bombing or nuclear
weapons, can such powers remain passive and silent? Let’s imagine ruins and
charred Iranian cities and towns, devastated and depopulated Iranian regions
with “brave” Yankee soldiers advancing relentlessly and declaring to barely
alive, sick and unenthusiastic survivors that now they are free, will live
under democracy and in friendship with the U.S. and their allies. That horror
scenario would have new political ramifications with Iran turning into a U.S.
vassal state and U.S. bases established just in close vicinity of Russia and on
the border with the Commonwealth of Independent States. Nothing has been
mentioned about possibly skyrocketing oil prices. Can such a nightmare script
or part of it be allowed to happen? The answer is “a loud no.”
It will be
reasonable to think that some moves – most of them behind the scenes – have
already focused on how the obliteration scenario can be prevented. Suddenly,
the specter of a worldwide nuclear conflict appears.
What we know
from the official sources of information is that Iran asked Russia for military
assistance. The New York Times has reported that the Russian Federation was
already supplying Iran with advanced radars and air defenses.
The final accent
of Middle Eastern deliberations is to realize that the conflict in the Middle
East has wider ramifications and interconnectedness. Surely, it is not a
regional skirmish. The U.S. and their allies are not only interfering in the
Middle East.
They stir in the
Far East, Africa and Ukraine.
Ukraine uses
German missiles Taurus, British Storm Shadow and American ATACMS. Unlike
earlier, they “allow” the Ukrainian regime to hit Russian targets deep in
Russia. When queried about such a dangerous state of affairs, they give evasive
answers of the following sort: “Once we pass the missiles to Ukrainians they
are theirs and that’s their responsibility what they will do with them,” but
why don’t they ask themselves an essential question: “Had we not given them our
missiles would they be in a position to fire them at Russian targets?”
Putin on a
number of occasions warned the West that once they supply Ukraine with
long-range weapons capable to hit targets on Russian soil, Russia may respond
symmetrically, that is provide long range arms to other countries to strike
Western targets. The possibilities are that among such countries could be Iran.
Anticipating
such developments one can envisage a caricature-like situation. Namely, Jill
Biden wakes up Sleepy Joe with the words: “Joe, the unthinkable happened! They
hit the Pentagon with a powerful rocket. The major part of the building has
gone, there are human fatalities as well. I have always thought that the enemy
would attack a base with our brave troopies somewhere far away but this is not
the case.” Awestruck Joe replies: “I told you many times that you couldn’t
trust those Russians but you didn’t believe it.”
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