Iran launches hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh and Nasrallah assassinations

Mondoweiss Palestine Bureau

October 2, 2024

Iran launched a barrage of hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday evening in an unprecedented attack that hit several cities and Israeli military sites across Israel and the occupied West Bank.

 

Iran stated that the attack was in retaliation for the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah in Beirut last week, in addition to IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan, killed in the same strike, and Hamas politburo chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last July.

Upon the conclusion of the Iranian missile attack, which took place in two closely timed “waves,” the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement that there would be no more missiles “for now,” but that an Israeli retaliation would invite an even more forceful Iranian response.

The attack comes after over a week of escalations between Hezbollah and Israel following Israel’s exploding pager and electronics attacks earlier in September and the subsequent assassinations of most of Hezbollah’s top military command, including Hasan Nasrallah, Ibrahim Aqil — the commander of the elite Radwan Force — and over a dozen members of the Radwan leadership.

The Iranian attack occurred simultaneously with a shooting and stabbing attack in Tel Aviv carried out by two Palestinian men from Hebron in the West Bank, resulting in the death of 7 Israelis and the wounding of 17 others. The shooters were identified as Muhammad Masik, 19, and Ahmad al-Haymouni, 25, who had reportedly stabbed an Israeli security guard and used his M-16 assault rifle to carry out the attack.

Missiles hitting their targets

The Iranian attack saw at least 180 ballistic missiles launched toward Israel, many of which were filmed seemingly hitting their targets or being intercepted by Israel’s “David’s Sling” and “Arrow” air defense systems as sirens blared across most of the country. The U.S. also reportedly intercepted some of the missiles on their way to Israel, according to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Israeli military censorship has so far controlled the flow of information regarding the casualties and damage caused by the attack, which reportedly targeted, among other locations, Israel’s Nevatim Airbase (which houses its fleet of F-35 fighter jets) and the headquarters of the Mossad in Tel Aviv. However, several videos circulating online filmed by civilians, many of them Palestinians in the West Bank or Palestinian citizens of Israel, show dozens of rockets making impact with their targets.

Videos documenting the strikes indicate that they hit widespread areas. The Israeli army said in a statement on Wednesday that while military bases had sustained damage, no planes or soldiers were harmed in the attack. The army also claimed that Israel had intercepted a “large number” of them. Several hours before the attack, the U.S. had reportedly informed Israel that an Iranian attack was imminent. The U.S. also reportedly participated in intercepting some of the missiles.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that the attack was “a significant escalation by Iran” and that “it is equally significant that we were able to step up with Israel and create a situation in which no one was killed.” Sullivan added that the attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an overnight statement that “Iran made a big mistake” and that it would “pay” for the attack, vowing that “whoever attacks us, we will attack them.”

Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari also said in an overnight statement that Israel would reserve the right to retaliate “at a time and place of our choosing.”

On Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Israel would face an even “harsher reaction” in the event of an Israeli reprisal.

In Lebanon on Wednesday, the Israeli army reported that eight Israeli soldiers had been killed in the cross-border fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. The announcement of the soldiers’ deaths comes amid Israeli reports over the weekend that the Israeli army had launched a “limited ground invasion” into southern Lebanon, although the Israeli claims have not been definitively confirmed by third-party sources.

 

The Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war

Fyodor Lukyanov

One year after Hamas’ infamous attack on Israel, the Middle East seems to have returned to its eternal state: a hotbed of acute conflict, with waves of tension. Outside observers can only look on in horror, while experts shrug their shoulders. That’s how it was, that’s how it will be. How is the current crisis different from previous ones in the region, you might ask? Well, without pretending to have a deep understanding, let us note what is striking from the outside.

Patron-client relationships are changing, both between regional powers and major external actors. The most obvious is the status of the United States. The current White House administration does not have a clear and consistent line; it’s just plugging holes and putting out new fires. The US does not need high-profile events in the Middle East right now, its priorities are different. Contacts with key players are inconsistent, and relations with the Gulf monarchies, and even more so with Iran, are volatile. But Washington’s actions are based on a fundamental contradiction that cannot be resolved, and it has to do with Israel.

Ideologically, the current Israeli leadership is not at all close to President Joe Biden’s team. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is rather unpopular. Diplomatic efforts are apparently being made to limit the scope of military action, which Israel does not agree with. At the same time, the Biden administration continues to provide military aid, because for America the Israeli factor is not a foreign but primarily a domestic phenomenon. All the more so at a crucial stage of the election campaign. As a result, the Israeli leadership, convinced that the US cannot pull the plug, decides on its own how to act, sometimes informing its American ally, sometimes “forgetting” to do so. The change to a relationship that was once considered more or less hierarchical is also evident on the other side.

Iran’s influence across the region has grown enormously in the 20 years since the US destroyed Saddam’s Iraq as its main counterweight and generally stirred up the Middle East. To its credit, Tehran has skilfully seized the opportunities and significantly strengthened its position, while skilfully avoiding direct conflict. The situation for Iran remained difficult, especially when Trump torpedoed the JCPOA nuclear deal on the one hand and eagerly embarked on a separate arrangement between Israel and the leading Arab countries on the other. Nevertheless, Tehran’s weight and influence cannot be denied, especially through its network of regional partner organisations of other Shiites and their sympathisers.

Israel is now launching powerful strikes against this entire apparatus with the aim of weakening it as much as possible, if not destroying it (which is hardly possible), and removing its ability to pose a threat for several years to come. Iran will thus be deprived of its most effective tools and will find itself in a position where it will be impossible not to respond. But Tehran is aware of this tactic and hides rather modest practical steps behind formidable rhetoric.

Nevertheless, prestige is also an issue. Other regional powers either confine themselves to very strong public admonishment, like the Turkish president, or show a high degree of concern, like the Arab Gulf states, or are primarily worried about ensuring that the chaos does not spread to them (Egypt, Jordan).

Returning to the external actors, their presence in the conflict area is not very visible. The European Union is not a presence at all. Even if the situation leads to new refugee flows that will directly affect the Old World, the efforts will most likely be aimed at preventing them from entering the bloc and nothing more.

Russia obviously has other priorities at the moment and is trying to promote some diplomacy where it can but, let’s face it, the demand for this is minimal. The region is teetering on the brink of all-out war but, paradoxically, judging by events, no one wants it. All players hope to walk the tightrope without losing control through escalation. There is no denying the skill of the participants, but it is becoming increasingly easy to fall off.

 

The final chapter for the Axis of Resistance, or the U.S.-backed Zionist regime?

Finian Cunningham

Former British spy chief John Sawers thinks that the Axis of Resistance is facing its final chapter as Israel takes on its regional foes with devastating lethal force – and seeming impunity.

Writing an opinion article in the Financial Times this week, the former director of Britain’s foreign intelligence agency, MI6, relished the view that Israel is on a winning roll against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and ultimately Iran, the leader of the resistance axis.

The bravado thinking of the former MI6 boss reflects the arrogance and similar miscalculation among Israeli and U.S. leaders.

Now Iran has hit back after a long delay. On Tuesday night, up to 200 ballistic missiles struck Israel. Video footage appears to show most of them hitting their targets. A major blow was extensive damage at Israel’s Nevatim airbase.

The wave of Iranian attacks mirrors the earlier barrage in April. Israel and the United States are threatening retaliation. It seems the gates of war have opened.

But is the Iranian response too little and too late? The long delay has only emboldened the U.S.-backed Israeli regime to keep escalating.

The delay in Iran’s legitimate defensive actions has been interpreted as weakness, and hence, the Israeli regime and its Western backers have miscalculated.

Why the cockiness from Israel and its Western backers?

There are several reasons. First, Israel knows it has the back of the United States, with all the firepower that entails. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader, knows he can get away with mass murder because Washington is reliant on Israel as its imperial enforcer in a vital geo-strategic region. Israel has a license to kill and genocide, authorized by US imperialism.

The genocide of over 41,000 people in Gaza over the past year has resulted in feeble rhetoric about ceasefires and “restraint” from the Biden administration while, at the same time, endless supplies of military aid to conduct this genocide. Netanyahu and the fanatics in his cabinet know that they can dismiss American admonitions about “ceasefires” and “restraint” as meaningless duplicity.

As Israel now steps up its aggression on Lebanon with a ground invasion following the massive bombing of civilian centers in Beirut, the U.S. is sending more combat forces to the region to “defend Israel.” What more evidence is needed that Washington is not just complicit in the Israeli hostility but actively endorsing it?

Second, Israel has a nuclear arsenal and is crazy enough to use it. There is little doubt that the amoral and unscrupulous Israeli regime would not balk at launching nuclear missiles on its enemies. The ruthless crossing of all red lines by the Israeli regime shows that it has no regard for international law or rules of war. The sense of entitlement is compounded by the knowledge that it has America’s nuclear arsenal also in support if its warmongering should go awry.

But also up there fueling these psychopathic tendencies is the impunity that the Israeli regime has been afforded.

Its mass murder of Palestinians over the past year has gone on unchecked in full view of the world. Infuriatingly, Israeli politicians stand in front of the UN and shred the UN Charter. The contempt for international law is astounding.

Yes, there have been rockets fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah and missiles from Yemen by the Houthis, and on two occasions by Iran. But by and large, these attacks have been pinpricks in the scale of suffering inflicted on Gaza.

The Arab and Islamic nations have done nothing to defend Palestinians from the barbaric U.S.-backed Israeli genocide. Indeed, some of these Arab states, like Jordan and Saudi Arabia, are facilitating the U.S. defense of Israel.

Not even Iran has responded adequately – despite its righteous rhetoric about revenge and justice.

When Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, killing a top Iranian commander, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, along with several other military personnel, the response from Iran was ultimately one of reluctance.

The “retaliatory” missile strikes on Israel by Iran two weeks later on April 13 were conducted with a choreography that emphasized to Israel and the United States that Tehran did not want escalation. Some commentators extolled the Iranian strikes as “masterful” tactics, but is it masterful to permit an aggressor to get away with murder?

In a column at the time, this author argued that the lame Iranian response would only incite further Israeli aggression and criminality.

Five months on, the death toll in Gaza has continued to mount, the genocidal siege continues, and Israel is now repeating the same genocidal aggression against Lebanon.

Not only that, the Israeli regime has truculently embarked on an assassination spree of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. The elimination of Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s leadership on September 27 with U.S. bunker-buster bombs dropped on its Beirut HQ surely raises the question: has Iran and its Axis of Resistance been outplayed?

Iran has unleashed its existential enemy owing to perceived weakness.

Not responding to the bombing of its embassy in Damascus was one thing. The killing of several of its top commanders was another. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 – attending the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian – was another flashing red line. Tehran did nothing then to avenge Haniyeh’s death despite the act of war on its capital – until this week. Two months on, but what took so long?

Indeed, President Pezeshkian reportedly said that retaliation for Haniyeh’s killing was not taken earlier because the U.S. vowed it would work on a ceasefire deal for Gaza. That ceasefire deal is a fraud, and one wonders if Iran knew all along that it was an empty promise. But by going along with it, the Israelis could deduce that Iran was acting weakly.

The brutal killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week was arguably a result of Iran’s fatal delay.

Israel’s deranged leaders believe they can act with impunity because they have so far. The regime can reach and kill anywhere, as Netanyahu boasted to the United Nations just before ordering the assassination of Nasrallah in a phone call from New York.

The Israeli rogue state sees itself as above the law to carry out genocide and assassinations because it has an American military machine and malleable American leaders at its disposal. Its monstrous threat to use nuclear weapons is not idle and Israel’s enemies know that.

But most of all, as the British spy chief arrogantly remarked in his Financial Times article referenced above, Israel can “smell Iran’s weakness”.

Iran’s leaders have repeatedly said they do not want a regional war. The sentiments against war are understandable and magnanimous. But virtue has no value when dealing with psychopaths and war criminals.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance are facing an existential threat. A whole new strategic thinking is needed.

It’s not clear what Iran and its allies can do. But they can’t go on as it is. They’re effectively being held hostage by the U.S.-backed Israeli regime and methodically being killed. To do nothing in the face of aggression is fatal.

In a speech just before his death last week, Hassan Nasrallah said as much: the right thing should be done, and so be it.

 

Iran bombs Israel, but buck stops with Biden

Trita Parsi

October 1, 2024

Today, Iran launched a massive missile attack against Israel, which Tehran billed as a response to Israel’s recent assassinations of leaders of the IRGC, Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel now appears to be mulling a retaliation in turn that could push the sides into all-out war.

When Israel and Iran narrowly avoided a full-blown conflict in April, I warned that we shouldn’t let Biden’s help in averting escalation overshadow his broader, strategic failure to prevent such a dangerous moment from ever arising. Had the U.S. used its considerable leverage with Israel to end its war in Gaza, the region would not have found itself on the edge of a disastrous war in April; six months later, the Middle East is back at the brink of disaster.

Iran has made it clear that it does not want a regional conflict; Tehran doesn’t seem to believe it can afford such a war. But Netanyahu clearly thinks it’s in his interest to ramp up conflict right now, as Washington stands frozen — a month out from an election and with a lame duck president who seems incapable of telling Israel “no,” no matter the costs for American security.

One must hope that somehow, further escalation is avoided. But the risk of just such an outcome is enormous, and if the U.S. finds itself in a new forever war in the Middle East, the buck will stop with Biden. This White House has repeatedly chosen to keep the U.S. on the precipice of war, rather than restrain Israel’s military as its expanding wars killed more and more civilians in Gaza and now Lebanon. The Biden administration has helped bring about this extraordinarily dangerous moment by providing Israel with the weapons, political protection, diplomatic support, and money it requires to pursue the exact escalation that the Biden administration professes it does not want.

Biden’s strategy has been to put enormous effort into deterring Iran and its partners from retaliating against Israel, while doing virtually nothing to discourage Israel from escalating in the first place. This lopsided approach has in fact been a recipe for escalation, repeatedly proving to Netanyahu that Washington has no intention of bringing pressure to bear on Israel, no matter its actions.

If Biden enables further escalation from Israel, this could very well lead to a direct U.S.-Iran military confrontation that would be profoundly destabilizing in the region. The consequences for U.S. national security of such a war are hard to quantify — but it’s easy to imagine consequences on par with the disastrous military adventurism that George W. Bush’s administration pursued in the Middle East.

If U.S. service members find themselves in the line of fire in an expanding Iran-Israel conflict, it will be a direct result of this administration’s failure to use U.S. leverage to pursue America’s most core security interest here — avoiding war.

Joe Biden came into office promising to end the era of forever wars and the quixotic, costly efforts to transform the Middle East. Now, Biden appears to have fallen into the trap of thinking that U.S. military force will transform the region for good. It is stunning that Washington appears not to have learned this lesson yet.