October 3, 2024
POLITICO
reported on Monday that despite the Biden administration’s public calls for a
ceasefire in Lebanon, White House officials privately told Israeli officials
that they agreed with the plan to escalate in Lebanon and shift its focus to
the north.
The report,
which cited U.S. and Israeli officials, said the message was delivered by Brett
McGurk, the top Middle East official on the National Security Council, and Amos
Hochstein, an Israeli-born veteran of the Israeli Defense Forces who works as a
special advisor for President Biden.
The report said
that Israel told the U.S. of its plans to focus on Lebanon but didn’t offer
much detail, and McGurk and Hochstein “relayed to their Israeli counterparts
that–while they still urged a cautious approach–the timing was likely opportune
for such a move, especially after Hezbollah had been significantly degraded in
the months prior.”
The report
contradicts public claims from U.S. officials that they have been seeking a
ceasefire in Lebanon and are working toward a diplomatic solution. But U.S.
actions have shown they do support Israel’s actions in Lebanon, as the Biden
administration gave Israel $8.7 billion in new military aid amid the dramatic
escalation.
The POLITICO
report said that McGurk, Hochstein, and other top U.S. officials are describing
the war in Lebanon “as a history-defining moment–one that will reshape the
Middle East for the better for years to come.”
Over 1,000
people, including many civilians, have been slaughtered by Israeli forces in
Lebanon since September 23. Airstrikes have been non-stop, and the Israeli
military has said it’s started a ground invasion of Lebanon.
Israel
is planning to launch a “significant retaliation” attack against Iran over the
Iranian missile barrage that targeted Israel on Tuesday, which was a response
to several Israeli escalations in the region. Israeli officials acknowledged to
Axios that the situation could lead to a full-blown regional war, which would
involve the US.
According
to the Axios report, Israel could target oil production facilities inside Iran
or other strategic sites. Israeli officials say that if Iran hits back, then
all options will be on the table, including strikes on Iran’s civilian nuclear
facilities.
“We
have a big question mark about how the Iranians are going to respond to an
attack, but we take into consideration the possibility that they would go all
in, which will be a whole different ball game,” an Israeli official told Axios.
Other
options being considered are attacks on Iran’s air defenses or targeted
assassinations. Israel has a history of killing people inside Iran, including
the July 31 assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh.
Israel
would likely need US military support to launch significant strikes on Iranian
territory, and the Israeli officials speaking to Axios say they are
coordinating with the Biden administration. Israel wants more US support if it
provokes another Iranian attack.
National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Tuesday that the US would work with Israel
to ensure Iran faces “severe consequences.” President Biden has also said he is
working with Israel on a response but said Wednesday that he wouldn’t support
strikes on Iran’s nuclear facility.
“All
seven of us agree that they have a right to respond, but they have to respond
proportionally,” he said, referring to the Group of Seven nations. He said G7
leaders agreed to impose new sanctions on Iran, which will have little impact
since Iran is already under so many.
Israel
acknowledged on Wednesday that Iranian missiles made an impact on several
military bases but claimed there was no significant damage. Israel is also
claiming there were no major casualties, with only two Israelis suffering minor
injuries. One Palestinian was killed in the Israeli-occupied West Bank when
shrapnel from an intercepted missile hit him.
Iran
fired about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the Israeli
assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and the Israeli killing of Hezbollah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, an IRGC commander
who was killed alongside Nasrallah.
President Biden said Thursday that
the US and Israel were discussing the possibility of striking Iran’s oil
facilities in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage that targeted Israel
on Tuesday, which was a response to multiple Israeli escalations.
When asked by a reporter if he would
support Israeli strikes on Iranian oil sites, Biden said, “We’re discussing
that. I think that would be a little… anyway.” The comments sent oil prices
spiking.
Striking Iran’s oil facilities is
supported by the ultra-hawkish Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). “These oil
refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for
the regime to perpetrate their terror,” Graham said in a statement on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, Biden said he wouldn’t
support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but the US is vowing to
ensure Tehran faces “severe consequences.” Israeli officials have told Axios
that they plan to hit Iran hard and believe their attack could lead to a major
regional war.
Options being considered besides
striking oil facilities are targeting Iran’s air defenses or carrying out a
targeted assassination inside Iran. Israeli officials have said that if Iran
responds to their next attack, then any option is on the table, including
strikes on nuclear facilities.
Israel is coordinating its plans to
attack Iran with the US because it wants the US to come to its defense in the
event of another significant Iranian attack. If Israel wants to carry out a
significant strike inside Iran, it may also need support from the US military.
Iran fired about 180 ballistic
missiles at Israel in response to the Israeli assassination of Hamas political
chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the Israeli killing of Hezbollah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, an IRGC commander
who was killed alongside Nasrallah.
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