The charging of
CIA official Asif Rahman for allegedly leaking US intelligence of Israeli
preparations for retaliatory strikes on Iran in October has brought into open
view the shadow war of espionage and counterespionage that has raged between
actors locked in a regional conflict for decades.
For years, governments have used human-gathered intelligence and digital
snooping to gain an advantage over opponents and allies alike [Kacper
Pempel/Reuters]
The Iran-based
Telegram channel Rahman is accused of leaking to disavows any connection with
Iran’s government, but that the affair has embarrassed a US administration
reeling from an earlier conviction of another of its officers, Jack Teixeira,
for leaking Pentagon papers is undeniable.
The Rahman leak
provides a glimpse into the murky interplay of Iranian, Israeli and US spy
agencies that have helped shape the current conflict and, almost as
importantly, our perception of it.
Catching spies
In late October,
Israel’s internal security agency, Shin Bet, said it had arrested seven Israeli
nationals living in occupied East Jerusalem on suspicion of carrying out
espionage on Iran’s behalf.
A day earlier,
another seven Israeli nationals in Haifa had been arrested on suspicion of
aiding the enemy, in this case, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence, in wartime.
Israeli police
sources confirmed that more Iran-aligned cells operating in the country are
suspected.
This isn’t new.
In September, 73-year-old Israeli businessman Moti Maman was also accused by
Shin Bet and the Israeli police of working with Iranian intelligence, allegedly
offering to kill Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other political figures
in return for an advance payment of $1m.
Conversely, Iran
has arrested several of its citizens throughout Israel’s war on Gaza on charges
of having collaborated with the Israeli spy agency Mossad.
In December,
Iran executed three men and a woman accused of acting on behalf of Mossad in
Iran and undertaking acts, from sabotage to the kidnapping of Iranian security
officials.
In September, in
the wake of attacks attributed to Israel on the communications systems of
Iran’s ally Hezbollah, Iran announced the arrests of 12 citizens on charges of
collaborating with Israel and planning attacks in the country.
Espionage in a
changing world
While electronic
intercepts, surveillance and monitoring of social media have become valuable
intelligence tools, human intelligence remains key to information gathering and
military targeting.
“Human
intelligence plays a significant role in the ongoing covert war between Israel
and Iran,” Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy,
said.
“Both countries
are heavily engaged in intelligence gathering with espionage and
counterespionage operations informing their broader strategic calculations,” he
added.
The Israelis
arrested in Haifa are accused of 600 to 700 intelligence-gathering missions for
Iran over two years, including targeting a senior official – presumably for
potential assassination similar to Israel’s high-profile assassinations,
including that of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in July.
“In Iran, Israel
demonstrated its capabilities through a series of high-profile assassinations
and sabotage missions, often attributed to Mossad’s deep penetration.
“On the other
hand, Iran has made efforts to establish human intelligence networks in Israel,
as highlighted by the recent arrests of several Israeli citizens accused of
spying for Iran,” Toossi said.
Turning the tide
Israel with its
small and generally cohesive society has long been considered almost
impregnable by foreign spy agencies, defence analyst Hamze Attar said.
However, the
strains of the current conflict, the rise of the extreme right and bitter
divisions over the 2023 judicial reforms championed by Netanyahu have worked at
pre-existing societal cracks, resulting in a fundamentally changed Israeli
society.
It is into those
divisions, analysts have suggested, that Iranian intelligence is making
inroads.
That the first
group of the 14 agents arrested in Haifa had immigrated to Israel from
Azerbaijan 10 years ago and the second group was regarded as Arab Israelis and,
therefore, slightly outside Israel’s mainstream is significant, according to
Attar.
“This [was]
huge,” he said.
“Israel has been
thought of as … a single identity, one taught from an early age that they are
under constant danger of attack from their Arab neighbours.”
“If Iran can
turn these two groups” into acting on its behalf in Israel, “they can turn
more,” he said.
Great games
Iran’s attempts
to penetrate Israeli society are only recently coming to light while there has
long been coverage of Israel’s use of covert intelligence on Iran.
Aiding Israel’s
efforts is Iran’s sheer size with a population that dwarfs Israel’s at a scale
of about 9.5 to 1 and social and political fault lines running through its
society – from protests against the 2022
death of Mahsa Amini for allegedly not wearing her headscarf correctly to
minorities demanding more rights.
“Israel’s stated
aim since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 is to foment the overthrow of the
regime from within,” Ahron Bregman of the Department of War Studies at King’s
College London said.
“That informs
the way they work. Israel has had a long period to plan, to recruit and to
structure their intelligence within Iran,” he said.
In contrast,
Iran appears to have invested much of its long-term planning in assembling a
network of allies, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which provide it with
information.
Intelligence
activities appeared to focus mainly on recruiting Palestinians working within
Israel, where they often face prejudice, or relatively low-risk efforts to
penetrate Israeli society via social media
In January,
sources in Israel claimed Iranian intelligence had been looking to exploit
popular anger over both the judicial changes and the unknown fate of the
captives taken into Gaza to stoke dissent and persuade Israelis to photograph
the properties of senior officials.
Nevertheless,
“Israel’s intelligence operations within Iran appear significantly more
developed and extensive,” Toossi said.
“The
assassination of Iranian scientists, high-profile figures like Ismail Haniyeh,
the sabotage of nuclear facilities and Israel’s proven ability to carry out
strikes deep within Iran all highlight how effectively it has infiltrated the
country’s most sensitive sectors.”
Chasing clicks
For Iran,
planting demonstrably false stories intended for an opposing spy agency to pick
up and publicise, only to then disprove and discredit the opposing agency, can
be a powerful weapon in the battle for influence, analysts said.
“Iran has a
record of planting false stories for Western outlets – including foreign-based
Persian-language outlets with links to Israel and Gulf countries – to pick up,
which it can then prove false and gain more credibility,” Veena Ali-Khan, a
fellow at the Century Foundation, said.
“[There] were
reports in Israeli media that [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Brigadier
General Esmail] Qaani was dead or detained for espionage purposes before he was
proved by Iran to be very much alive.
“Once again,
state media emphasised that Western media … were completely wrong about Qaani,
reinforcing their logic that Western outlets should not be trusted,” she said.
Deterrence
Controlling the
public narrative can be as vital for maintaining deterrence as it can be for
undermining your opponent, Bregman suggested.
“The Shin Bet
and the police are publicising these arrests deliberately. It’s about deterring
others,” he said, explaining a rationale at odds with the privacy-driven
security services of popular imagination.
“They’re
publicising their efforts. They’re letting people know that they’re there,
they’ll catch them.”
Likewise, Toossi
pointed out, the publicity surrounding the recent arrests masked numerous
failures on the part of Israeli intelligence, not least its failure to foresee
the devastating Hamas-led attacks of October 7 last year.
“It’s important
to recognise that Israel and its supportive media often project an image of
invincibility regarding Israeli intelligence that doesn’t always align with
reality,” he wrote by email, noting that the timing of the well-publicised
pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah in mid-September was forced upon
Israel when concerns over the operation’s discovery gained ground within
Mossad.
“Despite
Israel’s tactical successes, the notion of Israeli invincibility in the covert
realm or otherwise is greatly undermined by the country’s increasingly
precarious strategic situation.
“Israel’s
intelligence capabilities are formidable, but it is still facing sustained
resistance and major challenges on multiple fronts,” he wrote.
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