Elizabeth Blade
The last year
has been characterized by more than 45,000 deaths in Gaza, the destruction of
Hezbollah, confrontations with Yemen’s Houthis and an exchange of fire with
Iran. 2025 will probably continue this trend. Yet, with the comeback of
President Donald Trump Israel may also be given opportunities, including the
expansion of its historic Abraham Accords.
FILE PHOTO. Smoke and flames erupt from a building hit in an Israeli
airstrike in Chiyah, in the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Friday,
Nov. 22, 2024. © AP Photo/Bilal Hussein
Bloody but
successful year
2024 has been a
challenging year for Israel but also one of major military gains.
In its battle
against Hamas, an Islamic organization that has been controlling Gaza since
2007, Israel entered Rafah, the southern governorate of the strip, establishing
full control over the crossing that connects the area to the outside world. The
IDF has also seized the so-called Philadelphi corridor, a nine-mile route that
Israel claims is used by Hamas to smuggle weapons, money and militants outside
its borders.
Hamas, though
still showing resistance, has been weakened significantly. Many of its
commanders and top leaders (including deputy leader Saleh Al Arouri, the
politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh and the man who inherited him, Yahya Sinwar)
have been killed, wounded or arrested. 18 out of 24 battalions have been
dismantled or damaged; military infrastructure has been either totally
destroyed or put beyond use.
In the north,
Israel has also registered achievements, primarily against its long-time rival,
Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
In September,
Israel carried out an operation detonating thousands of walkie-talkies and
beepers carried by Hezbollah operatives. 30 people died as a result and
thousands of others have been injured. But the blows to the Shiite militia did
not stop there. Shortly after, the IDF eliminated the group’s chief Hassan
Nasrallah, the people who could succeed him, the top commanders and their
deputies – in total some 176 decision makers, in a move that paralyzed the
group. Just like in the south, the Israeli forces bombarded key military
facilities, seized weapons and destroyed tunnels. They disrupted Hezbollah’s
ability to receive and distribute money and, most importantly, hampered its
capabilities to get a steady flow of weapons.
With Hezbollah’s
patron, Iran, Israel has also engaged in a number of confrontations. The most
notorious took place in April and October when the Islamic Republic launched
hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones into Israel, prompting a harsh
Israeli response. Although the strikes caused little visible destruction,
reports suggest that they have damaged Iran’s capabilities to protect itself
from future rocket attacks. They have also hampered Tehran’s abilities to
produce certain kinds of ballistic missiles.
Experts believe
that these blows, coupled with Israel’s repetitive strikes on Yemen’s Houthis,
have weakened the once strong Hamas-Syria-Hezbollah-Iran axis, eventually
contributing to the collapse of Bashar Assad, Syria’s strongman, who ruled the
country for nearly 25 years. But the battle is far from being over; 2025
promises to bring more confrontations and bloodshed but also opportunities and
potential resolutions.
Hamas and its
future in post-war Gaza:
Although Hamas
lost at least 14,000 combatants and 18 out of its 24 battalions have been
partially or fully destroyed, the organization is still functioning and is able
to challenge Israel.
Only on December
29 the group launched five rockets on Israel’s south, sending thousands
scrambling to reach bomb shelters. Another such projectile was sent in October
and, although Hamas’ capability to carry out such attacks has declined,
officials in Jerusalem are worried it’s still able to pull a rabbit out of a
hat.
Some of their
tunnels are still functioning and, despite difficulties and the loss of
high-profile figures, the Islamist organization has managed to regroup, recruit
new combatants to replace those who were killed or injured, and resurface in
places that the IDF had previously declared cleared.
Even more so,
the militants of the organization are still able to control substantial parts
of the humanitarian assistance that flows into Gaza, understanding that whoever
controls it, maintains a grip over the enclave. They are still holding 100
Israeli hostages, dead and living, and they have no intention of releasing them
without substantial concessions from the Israeli side.
Hamas’ demands
are simple. They want the war to stop, with Israel pulling out its forces from
Gaza’s key strategic locations, including the Netzarim corridor in the north,
the Rafah crossing in the south and the Philadelphi along the Sinai border –
demands that Israel has so far rejected.
They also call
on Israel to release hundreds of its prisoners, many of whom are serving life
sentences for terrorism; and they demand to be in charge of Gaza once the war
is over. For Israel, this condition is simply a no-go.
Over the past
year, officials in Jerusalem have been trying to find a solution to the problem
of who will govern Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the idea of
letting the Palestinian Authority (PA) take over the enclave, accusing its
officials of fueling and inciting terror. The idea of moderate Arab forces
hasn’t been accepted either, primarily because there were no bidders to take
the job. Local clans haven’t been an option, simply because they lost the
appetite, after being harassed and persecuted by Hamas.
In 2025, Israel
will continue to try and find a solution to the issue but the general tendency
in Jerusalem is that control of Gaza should remain in Israel’s hands, similar
to what is implemented in the West Bank.
Should that be
the case, the prospect of a deal with Hamas will remain remote, something that
will only add to the already mounting international and domestic pressure.
Lebanon: Will
Hezbollah surrender?
According to
estimates, Hezbollah has lost more than 2,000 of its fighters and 176 top
commanders and leaders in the battle with Israel, along with 80% of its rocket
arsenal. But, just like with Hamas, the Shiite militia’s days are far from
numbered.
Before the
recent round of hostilities started, the organization boasted some 100,000
fighters, both soldiers and reservists. Its military arsenal contained tens of
thousands of long-, middle- and short-range rockets, UAVs and mortars. Even if
80% of those are gone, the remainder can still pose a serious headache for
Israel.
Quite often
Hezbollah is doing just that.
Despite the
holding ceasefire – which has been in place since November 27 – Hezbollah is
still challenging Israel with occasional rockets and the targeting of Israeli
troops inside Lebanon. They are still attempting to smuggle weapons from Iran
and maintain their network of financial support within Lebanon.
It is not to
Israel’s liking. The ceasefire agreement stipulates that Israel would maintain
its forces inside Lebanon for the duration of 60 days until it starts to
gradually withdraw them, but officials in West Jerusalem have confirmed to RT
that Israel is planning to extend its stay, primarily because the international
forces who are supposed to be filling the void “are dragging their feet” in
establishing control over southern Lebanon, which puts Israel’s northern
communities at risk.
Should Israel
remain in the area beyond January 27, the ceasefire would be annulled and
fighting would resume, leading to more bloodshed on both sides.
Syria: rising
opportunities?
On December 8,
when President Bashar Assad fled Damascus and Syria fell into the hands of
Hayat Tahrir A-Sham (HTS), Israel didn’t waste any time. The IDF swiftly
established full control over the buffer zone that up until recently has been
in the hands of Syrian and international forces; it positioned itself on Hermon
Mountain and, according to reports, started to operate deep inside Syrian
sovereign territory under the pretext of protecting Israel from a potential
threat of HTS militants.
Israel has no
illusions about the new rulers of Syria. Only recently, Foreign Minister Gideon
Saar branded HTS a “terror gang from Idlib” that managed to seize power in
Syria. Although some officials, including the group’s chief Ahmed Al Sharaa,
maintained they had no intention of waging war against Israel, officials in
West Jerusalem argued that the real intentions of the organization, and which
is still on the US Terror List, are not clear. And if that’s the case, Israel
should be cautious.
Yet, Israel also
looks at it as an opportunity. According to reports, IDF officials have already
met with Druze clan leaders of villages close to the Israeli border in a bid to
form understandings with them and make sure they keep radicals at bay.
Israel is also
maintaining ties with Kurdish militias, seeing them as potential partners in
post-Assad Syria.
In 2025, Israel
is most likely to continue and foster those ties, and it is also likely to
continue and maintain its grip over the buffer zone and adjacent villages
especially as the battles between the various armed groups of Syria are far
from being over.
Although
Al-Sharaa has recently met with representatives of dozens of armed factions
that agreed to lay down arms and form a united front, some continue to pose a
challenge to the new ruler.
A source in Iraq
confided to RT that some elements are now working on the establishment of
Alawite and other minorities’ battalions that will soon go into action. And if
that is true, 2025 will bring little stability to an already war-torn Syria.
Yemen: big
confrontation ahead?
Since October 7,
2023, Yemen has been a true headache for Israel. So far it has launched around
200 missiles into the state, with 22 crossing over Israeli airspace. In
December alone, ten missiles and approximately ten UAVs have reached Israel.
One has caused significant damage, injuring at least 16 people.
In addition, it
disrupted maritime trade and strangled Israel’s most southern city of Eilat and
its port.
During the war,
Israel has reacted four times; twice against Houthi targets inside Yemen’s
capital Sanaa but the strikes – that were visibly destructive – didn’t kill
Houthis’ appetite to continue their fight.
Mohammed Al
Bukhaiti, a Houthi leader in Sanaa, vowed to keep up the strikes against
Israeli targets until it ceases its operations in Gaza and Lebanon.
In 2025, Israel
promises to teach Houthis a lesson. Although it is not clear what that strike
might entail, Houthi leaders have already gone into hiding, according to some
reports. Israel is reportedly preparing a list of targets.
Iran:
confrontation with archrival looms
In Israel, it
seems, the decision to confront Iran has already been adopted. It is just a
matter of time, magnitude, scope and the goals Netanyahu is planning to
achieve.
These range from
destroying Tehran’s nuclear capabilities to potentially collapsing the current
establishment, but estimates are that the Israeli PM will not go into the
endeavor alone. He is waiting for President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected
to assume his post on January 20.
Iran won’t be
sitting idly by, expecting a potential strike. Last Saturday, its foreign
minister Abbas Arakchi stated that 2025 will be “an important year” or his
country’s nuclear capabilities, and, if this is the case, Israel (and
potentially the US) might think twice before attempting an attack.
Abraham Accords
– expansion?
Netanyahu is
waiting for the return of Trump not only because of him being a potential
partner in a battle against Iran.
During his first
term, Trump played an important role in forging the Abraham Accords – a number
of normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain,
Sudan and Morocco that were inked in 2020-2021.
Trump has
repeatedly promised that once he is back in office that circle of countries
would expand and, if that’s the case, it would score political points not only
for him but for the Israeli premier, too.
Today, looking
back at the outgoing year and Israel’s actions in Gaza, with at least 45,000
dead and thousands wounded or missing, it is hard to imagine any Arab or Muslim
country would normalize its relations with Israel but, in the Middle East,
money and interests have often prevailed over other values. They might prevail
this time, too.
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