Sergey Strokan
The inauguration
of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States is this week’s main
news story, not only in America but also in domestic Russian politics. Though
all eyes on that day were fixed on Trump, it is telling that he also became the
subject of intense discussions in this country, ranging from political circles
to ordinary kitchen conversations. This is no anomaly — it is entirely logical.
For Russia, Joe
Biden was not just another departing American president. He was the leader who,
following Moscow’s launch of its military operation in Ukraine in February
2022, built a global framework of confrontation against the country. By the
time Biden left the White House, this structure was visibly fraying.
The
once-unshakable international coalition supporting Ukraine faced growing
cracks, while the West’s resolve to maintain unconditional support for Kiev was
visibly waning.
Enter Donald
Trump. In Russia, both politicians and the general public are consumed with the
question: will Trump dismantle Biden’s anti-Russian framework, allow it to
collapse under its own weight, or paradoxically, tighten its screws?
The future of
Biden’s hostile construction hinges on whether Moscow and Washington can chart
a path out of the Ukraine conflict that enables both sides to save face without
feeling like losers. For the incoming Trump administration, it is critical that
any resolution does not appear as an unconditional surrender — not necessarily
for Ukraine, which the new president is largely indifferent to, but for Trump
himself. Allowing Putin to emerge as the winner in a psychological and
geopolitical duel is inconceivable for Washington. For Trump, the optics of a
personal defeat would be absolutely unacceptable.
How the
Ukrainian crisis is ultimately resolved depends largely on the interpretation
of the terms “victory” and “defeat.” Both sides must align their definitions
and find political will to declare a solution where “nobody has lost to
anybody.” This is where the room for negotiation lies—if the desire exists.
But while the
Ukraine crisis has dominated Russian politics and perceptions of the US since
February 2022, it is critical to recognize that, for Trump’s America, Russia
and Ukraine are far from the central concern. Many in Moscow find this
difficult to comprehend.
Those who frame
Trump’s presidency as a grand chess match with Russia are succumbing to naïve
delusions. Trump has already signaled that his administration’s primary focus
will not be resolving the Ukraine crisis. Instead, Trump envisions a bold
session of simultaneous play on multiple geopolitical boards, stretching across
continents.
Canada,
Greenland, the Panama Canal — the list goes on. Trump’s approach reflects both
an audacious attempt to reshape the global order and a rejection of the
so-called “rules-based order” promoted by Joe Biden. Trump seeks to replace
this outline with his own — “Trump’s rules” — which also remain unwritten but
are already beginning to take shape.
What are these
rules? They are rooted in a classic “right of the strong” framework, where the
sovereignty of one country is not inherently equal to another’s. Strength,
rather than norms or equality, will define the balance of power in Trump’s
vision of the world. For Russia, understanding and adapting to this will be
essential in its relations with America, which remains the preeminent global
superpower.
Yet, for Trump’s
rules to succeed, America must also learn to respect Russia’s strength —
something Biden repeatedly failed to do. Trump, who prides himself on being a
dealmaker, may attempt to strike a balance where power is acknowledged on both
sides.
That said,
Russia must not mistake Trump’s rhetoric for a singular focus on Ukraine. For
the Trump administration, the Ukrainian crisis is just one of many pieces on a
sprawling global chessboard. Trump’s geopolitical ambitions extend far beyond
Eastern Europe. His focus lies on rewriting the international order in ways
that consolidate America’s primacy while renegotiating the terms of engagement
for allies and adversaries alike.
Trump’s return,
therefore, represents a profound challenge for Moscow. His presidency will not
be defined by any one conflict, but rather by his attempts to rewrite the rules
of the international order itself. Whether this results in stability or chaos remains
to be seen. For Russia, this is both an opportunity and a challenge — a chance
to assert its sovereignty and strength, but also a test of its ability to
navigate a world where the rules are constantly being rewritten.
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