Trita Parsi
As Iran
mounts an effective response to Israel's war of choice, why should the
president now risk US lives to join it?
The
Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles during
an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, June 15, 2025. (AP
Photo/Leo Correa)
Israel’s war of choice with Iran
is proving far less decisive than President Donald Trump initially believed
when he praised Israel’s performance as “excellent.” What now appears to be an
escalating, inconclusive conflict with no clear end in sight will soon force
Trump into a challenging decision: end the war — or enter it.
Israel’s opening strike was
undoubtedly a tactical success. Caught off guard by the assumption that Israel
wouldn’t act before the sixth round of nuclear talks, Iranian leaders had taken
no precautions. Many were asleep in their homes in northern Tehran, alongside
their families, when Israeli strikes killed them in their beds. Iran’s air
defenses were also unprepared and inactive.
Israel aimed to eliminate as many
Iranian commanders as possible to disrupt Iran’s command and control structure
and effectively paralyze its military response. Initially, the strikes were so
successful — and Iran so subdued — that it was unclear whether Tehran retained
any meaningful capacity to retaliate.
Impressed by Israel’s early
success, Trump moved quickly to claim credit for the operation, despite
Secretary of State Marco Rubio having declared just hours earlier that the
strikes were a “unilateral action” by Israel and that the U.S. was not involved.
As the saying goes: success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.
But within 18 hours, Iran had
restructured its chain of command, activated its air defenses, and, most
critically, launched four missile barrages aimed primarily at Israeli air
defense systems. Many of the missiles penetrated Israel’s multilayered defenses,
lighting up the Tel Aviv skyline as they struck their targets — including a
direct hit on Israel’s Ministry of Defense.
That Tehran could mount such a
response just hours after losing several top military commanders was the first
clear sign that Israel’s initial success would be short-lived.
Although Iran continued to absorb
heavy blows on Saturday — including Israeli strikes on oil refineries, Mehrabad
Airport in Tehran, and other civilian and economic infrastructure — it
responded with additional missile barrages. These were fewer in number but
notably more effective. As Israel’s air defenses degrade, Tehran is likely to
shift to missiles with larger warheads, increasing the scale of destruction.
Meanwhile, despite inflicting
significant damage on the Natanz nuclear site, Israel has failed to penetrate
the far more critical and heavily fortified Fordow facility. As a result, the
actual impact on Iran’s nuclear program appears limited. Reports indicate that
the U.S. military has provided its missile defense capabilities to shoot down
Iranian drones and missiles but it has so far not joined Israel in offensive
strikes.
It is becoming increasingly clear
to Washington that Israel’s war of choice is far from a success, and a decisive
outcome may not materialize at all. While Israel likely holds escalation
dominance, it faces a critical disadvantage: it has fewer air defense
interceptors than Iran has long-range missiles. Israel needs a swift and
decisive victory — but a prolonged war of attrition may ultimately favor Iran.
And such a victory now seems out of reach.
Unsurprisingly, Israeli officials
and their allies in Washington — including groups like the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies — have begun lobbying President Trump to bring the U.S.
into the war and to join them in offensive strikes. For Trump, this must be a
serious letdown. Aware of his reluctance to launch another Middle East war, the
Netanyahu government had recalibrated its approach when it pressed Trump
earlier in January: rather than urging the U.S. to strike Iran directly, it
sought a green light for Israel to act. Through an intense lobbying campaign,
Israel appears to have secured at least tacit approval from Trump for this
campaign.
Just 24 hours into its war of
choice with Iran, Israel was already back in Washington, knocking on Trump’s
door with new demands. What began as “Give us the green light and Israel will
bomb Iran for America” quickly shifted to “Hurry up, America, and bomb Iran for
Israel!”
Israel faces two key challenges
with this request. First, seeking America’s blessing to go to war is a far
lighter ask than requesting America’s direct military involvement. Trump,
unexpectedly, agreed to the former — but it would be exceptionally unwise for
him to agree to the latter.
Secondly, as noted earlier, Trump
likes winners — and by asking him to intervene, Israel is signaling that it’s
losing. It has failed to eliminate Iran’s regime or cripple its nuclear
program, and is now absorbing unexpected blows in return (today Iran sent a
barrage of missiles during daytime rather than night to throw the Israelis
off). Why would Trump risk American lives, endanger his presidency, and join a
war he didn’t start — just to rescue Israel from a failed and unprovoked
conflict? Trump prefers to take credit for victories, not inherit blame for
someone else’s potential fiasco.
After all, it was Israel that
persuaded Trump to adopt the zero-enrichment negotiating stance — the very
position that led to the diplomatic deadlock Israel later exploited to secure a
green light for its faltering military campaign. Had Trump stuck to his
original red line — no weaponization — he might now be on the verge of a
historic nuclear agreement with Iran.
Trump listened to Netanyahu—just
as he did to John Bolton and Mike Pompeo in 2018—and once again, his path to an
America First deal with Iran was derailed. This is precisely the outcome
Netanyahu sought. If it’s not what Trump wants, he should change course
immediately—just as he did in Yemen. Rather than joining Israel’s war, he
should compel Israel to end it.
With its unprovoked war, Israel
has undermined Trump’s negotiating position in two key ways. First, support for
acquiring a nuclear weapon has surged among Iran’s elite and broader society in
response to the Israeli bombings. This has raised the political cost for Tehran
to agree to limit enrichment to civilian levels, making a deal more difficult.
Second, America’s backing of
Israel’s attack — coupled with Trump’s self-congratulatory rhetoric — has led
Tehran to believe he deliberately lulled Iran into a false sense of security to
boost Israel’s chances. As a result, what little trust remained in Trump as a
negotiating partner has further eroded. And the less trust there is, the
narrower the path to a deal.
Still, a deal remains possible.
But the sooner Trump halts Israel’s war, the better his chances. One thing is
certain: if Trump and Iran return to the negotiating table, he must quickly
abandon the self-defeating zero-enrichment demand championed by Israel and
Bolton — the very stance that gave birth to this needless and messy war.
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