January 18, 2026
Speaking amid funerals for Iranian security personnel killed during the protests, Khamenei said the recent wave of unrest differed from previous episodes because of the personal involvement of the US president, whom he labeled a “criminal.” He accused individuals linked to the US and Israel of orchestrating violence, arson, and killings, and called on authorities to “break the backbone of sedition.”
Khamenei stressed that Iran does not seek war but will not allow “domestic or international criminals” to escape accountability. His remarks appeared to directly rebut Trump’s public threats of military intervention and repeated calls for regime change, which Iranian officials say emboldened unrest on the ground.
Iranian authorities have described the protests—which began in late December over worsening economic conditions—as having been infiltrated by armed groups backed by foreign actors. Independent rights monitors, including the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), report thousands killed and tens of thousands detained, while Tehran rejects allegations of mass executions.
A Shift from Indirect to Direct Pressure
According to Mujtaba Haidari, an Iranian affairs analyst, Khamenei’s remarks should not be read as a reactive speech but as a strategic framing of the moment.
“These statements are a diagnosis, not a response,” Haidari wrote in Al-Mayadeen. “Khamenei is situating the protests within a long historical conflict with the United States, not as an isolated internal crisis.”
Haidari argues that what distinguishes the current unrest is not its scale alone, but the qualitative change in US involvement.
“In previous periods, Washington relied on indirect tools—media pressure, NGOs, intermediaries, and diplomatic signaling,” he said. “This time, the US president himself intervened publicly, threatening, encouraging, and framing events in real time. That is a major escalation.”
Haidari said this overt involvement exposes Washington’s broader objective: reversing Iran’s political independence and reasserting US dominance over a strategically vital state that has resisted American control since 1979.
The Role of the Iranian Public
Khamenei repeatedly emphasized what he described as the decisive role of the Iranian public in containing the unrest. He credited popular awareness and unity with preventing the protests from becoming an existential crisis for the state.
Haidari agrees that the leadership’s narrative hinges on this point.
“The Iranian state sees society itself as the first line of defense,” he said. “The argument is that while economic grievances are real, the attempt to weaponize them for geopolitical ends failed because people recognized the difference between reform and destabilization.”
At the same time, Khamenei acknowledged the economic hardship facing Iranians and called on officials to intensify efforts to meet basic needs—an acknowledgment Haidari says is critical.
“This is not denial of suffering,” Haidari noted. “It is an attempt to link social justice to political sovereignty, arguing that resilience abroad must be matched by accountability at home.”
Escalation Without War
Despite Trump’s repeated threats—including suggestions of airstrikes—Iranian officials have stressed they do not seek military confrontation. Partial restoration of internet access in recent days suggests an attempt to ease tensions, even as arrests continue.
Yet Haidari warns that the situation remains volatile.
“The danger is not immediate war, but miscalculation,” he said. “When rhetoric escalates this openly, when intelligence operations are acknowledged, and when external actors speak of ‘agents on the ground,’ the margin for error shrinks dramatically.”
Israeli officials have openly expressed support for opposition forces, while US officials maintain that all options remain on the table. Against this backdrop, Haidari says Khamenei’s final message is deliberately calibrated.
“The message is simple,” he said. “Iran will not initiate war—but it will not absorb this level of pressure without response.”
As protests, arrests, and international pressure continue, Iran appears to be entering a phase where internal stability, regional tensions, and global power rivalry are increasingly intertwined—raising questions about how long escalation can be managed without rupture.
Iran’s Supreme Leader accused the
US of orchestrating unrest as protests continue, while analysts say
Washington’s direct involvement marks a dangerous shift in pressure on Tehran.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei on Saturday accused US President Donald Trump of direct
responsibility for deaths, destruction, and reputational harm during weeks of
unrest in Iran, describing Washington’s role as unprecedented and openly interventionist.
Speaking amid funerals for Iranian security personnel killed during the protests, Khamenei said the recent wave of unrest differed from previous episodes because of the personal involvement of the US president, whom he labeled a “criminal.” He accused individuals linked to the US and Israel of orchestrating violence, arson, and killings, and called on authorities to “break the backbone of sedition.”
Khamenei stressed that Iran does not seek war but will not allow “domestic or international criminals” to escape accountability. His remarks appeared to directly rebut Trump’s public threats of military intervention and repeated calls for regime change, which Iranian officials say emboldened unrest on the ground.
Iranian authorities have described the protests—which began in late December over worsening economic conditions—as having been infiltrated by armed groups backed by foreign actors. Independent rights monitors, including the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), report thousands killed and tens of thousands detained, while Tehran rejects allegations of mass executions.
A Shift from Indirect to Direct Pressure
According to Mujtaba Haidari, an Iranian affairs analyst, Khamenei’s remarks should not be read as a reactive speech but as a strategic framing of the moment.
“These statements are a diagnosis, not a response,” Haidari wrote in Al-Mayadeen. “Khamenei is situating the protests within a long historical conflict with the United States, not as an isolated internal crisis.”
Haidari argues that what distinguishes the current unrest is not its scale alone, but the qualitative change in US involvement.
“In previous periods, Washington relied on indirect tools—media pressure, NGOs, intermediaries, and diplomatic signaling,” he said. “This time, the US president himself intervened publicly, threatening, encouraging, and framing events in real time. That is a major escalation.”
Haidari said this overt involvement exposes Washington’s broader objective: reversing Iran’s political independence and reasserting US dominance over a strategically vital state that has resisted American control since 1979.
The Role of the Iranian Public
Khamenei repeatedly emphasized what he described as the decisive role of the Iranian public in containing the unrest. He credited popular awareness and unity with preventing the protests from becoming an existential crisis for the state.
Haidari agrees that the leadership’s narrative hinges on this point.
“The Iranian state sees society itself as the first line of defense,” he said. “The argument is that while economic grievances are real, the attempt to weaponize them for geopolitical ends failed because people recognized the difference between reform and destabilization.”
At the same time, Khamenei acknowledged the economic hardship facing Iranians and called on officials to intensify efforts to meet basic needs—an acknowledgment Haidari says is critical.
“This is not denial of suffering,” Haidari noted. “It is an attempt to link social justice to political sovereignty, arguing that resilience abroad must be matched by accountability at home.”
Escalation Without War
Despite Trump’s repeated threats—including suggestions of airstrikes—Iranian officials have stressed they do not seek military confrontation. Partial restoration of internet access in recent days suggests an attempt to ease tensions, even as arrests continue.
Yet Haidari warns that the situation remains volatile.
“The danger is not immediate war, but miscalculation,” he said. “When rhetoric escalates this openly, when intelligence operations are acknowledged, and when external actors speak of ‘agents on the ground,’ the margin for error shrinks dramatically.”
Israeli officials have openly expressed support for opposition forces, while US officials maintain that all options remain on the table. Against this backdrop, Haidari says Khamenei’s final message is deliberately calibrated.
“The message is simple,” he said. “Iran will not initiate war—but it will not absorb this level of pressure without response.”
As protests, arrests, and international pressure continue, Iran appears to be entering a phase where internal stability, regional tensions, and global power rivalry are increasingly intertwined—raising questions about how long escalation can be managed without rupture.
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