April 18, 2026
Juan Cole
Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced on “X” Friday morning that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open.”
Juan Cole
Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced on “X” Friday morning that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open.”
“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.”
Araghchi’s announcement came in
the wake of an announcement of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon
(actually Hezbollah). Ordinarily such ceasefires with Israel aren’t worth the
paper they are printed on, since the Israeli authorities repeatedly and
egregiously violate them with impunity. After the so-called ceasefire of
November 27, 2024, Israel went on bombing Lebanon daily even in the absence of
Hezbollah rocket fire, reaching 1000 air strikes by late last year and
committing an estimated 10,000 violations of the agreement. Tel Aviv took the
ceasefire as an opportunity to attempt to assassinate Hezbollah leaders and
degrade their military capabilities, though the effort failed to cripple the
Shiite party-militia of southern Lebanon. It has local support because people
feel it is the only thing that stands between them and Israeli occupation,
annexation, and settler colonialism. Israel occupied ten percent of Lebanon
1982-2000 and was only dislodged by the Hezbollah resistance.
If the current ceasefire turns out to be any different, it would be because of successful Iranian pressure on President Donald Trump through the threat to further disrupt the Persian Gulf and so prolong the era of high gasoline prices. This threat hangs over Trump going into the US midterms. It should, however, be noted that Israel has destroyed all the seven bridges over the Litani river linking Lebanon to its South, and has already occupied southern Lebanese territory up to several kilometers, having blasted entire historic hamlets out of existence, and vowing to prevent Lebanese Shiite internally displaced families from ever returning home. Israeli politicians and activists are talking about squatting on Lebanese land the way they do on Palestinian land.
So if Araghchi’s pronouncement depends on the situation in Lebanon, that is a frail reed.
Then there are questions about what it means for the Strait of Hormuz to be “completely open.”
Iran’s Fars News reports that it was told by an insider in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps that according to the ceasefire plan brokered by Pakistan, Iran was supposed to issue daily permits for a number of ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Because the Israelis continued to bomb Lebanon, however, Iran declined to follow through.
Fars says that the source told them that Iran had three conditions for reopening the Strait:
First, passage would be by peaceful commercial vessels only. No military ships would be allowed, and no commercial ships or cargo of belligerents would be allowed. It seems to me that that provision would exclude petroleum or LNG with Israel or the United States as their destination. It would also cement the closing of the US naval base at Manama, Bahrain and its end as HQ of the Fifth Fleet. If this provision is what the Iranians are demanding, it would be the biggest change in Gulf security architecture since Britain formally withdrew from the Gulf in 1971, and since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s gradually brought the US in to succeed London.
Second, the ships must follow the designated Iranian route, something that Araghchi seems to refer to in his posting.
Third, all passage must be permitted by and coordinated with the Iranian forces.
The source said that the framework for the implementation of these three conditions was an end to the Israeli bombing of Lebanon and an expeditious end to the US blockade of Iranian vessels exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Should the US blockade continue, the source averred, it would be considered a violation of the ceasefire and would lead Iran to close the Strait once more.
The US is saying that it won’t lift the blockade on Iran until Tehran accedes to Washington’s demands.
It should be remembered that even though Trump is still able to talk up the markets, no significant oil or gas flows are yet coming out of the Gulf, and so the real-world shortages of fuel that Asia and Africa are feeling keenly continue.
Diplomacy by social media is to say the least insubstantial, and it isn’t clear yet what the shape of a settlement will be, since both Iran and Washington still have demands unacceptable to the other. Is Araghchi really on the same page with the hard liners that Trump promoted to the top of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps? Can Trump really restrain his pit bull, Benjamin Netanyahu?
Still, a ceasefire in the sense of no one shooting, and continued diplomacy via Pakistan and other regional players is far preferable to continued warfare.
If the current ceasefire turns out to be any different, it would be because of successful Iranian pressure on President Donald Trump through the threat to further disrupt the Persian Gulf and so prolong the era of high gasoline prices. This threat hangs over Trump going into the US midterms. It should, however, be noted that Israel has destroyed all the seven bridges over the Litani river linking Lebanon to its South, and has already occupied southern Lebanese territory up to several kilometers, having blasted entire historic hamlets out of existence, and vowing to prevent Lebanese Shiite internally displaced families from ever returning home. Israeli politicians and activists are talking about squatting on Lebanese land the way they do on Palestinian land.
So if Araghchi’s pronouncement depends on the situation in Lebanon, that is a frail reed.
Then there are questions about what it means for the Strait of Hormuz to be “completely open.”
Iran’s Fars News reports that it was told by an insider in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps that according to the ceasefire plan brokered by Pakistan, Iran was supposed to issue daily permits for a number of ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Because the Israelis continued to bomb Lebanon, however, Iran declined to follow through.
Fars says that the source told them that Iran had three conditions for reopening the Strait:
First, passage would be by peaceful commercial vessels only. No military ships would be allowed, and no commercial ships or cargo of belligerents would be allowed. It seems to me that that provision would exclude petroleum or LNG with Israel or the United States as their destination. It would also cement the closing of the US naval base at Manama, Bahrain and its end as HQ of the Fifth Fleet. If this provision is what the Iranians are demanding, it would be the biggest change in Gulf security architecture since Britain formally withdrew from the Gulf in 1971, and since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s gradually brought the US in to succeed London.
Second, the ships must follow the designated Iranian route, something that Araghchi seems to refer to in his posting.
Third, all passage must be permitted by and coordinated with the Iranian forces.
The source said that the framework for the implementation of these three conditions was an end to the Israeli bombing of Lebanon and an expeditious end to the US blockade of Iranian vessels exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Should the US blockade continue, the source averred, it would be considered a violation of the ceasefire and would lead Iran to close the Strait once more.
The US is saying that it won’t lift the blockade on Iran until Tehran accedes to Washington’s demands.
It should be remembered that even though Trump is still able to talk up the markets, no significant oil or gas flows are yet coming out of the Gulf, and so the real-world shortages of fuel that Asia and Africa are feeling keenly continue.
Diplomacy by social media is to say the least insubstantial, and it isn’t clear yet what the shape of a settlement will be, since both Iran and Washington still have demands unacceptable to the other. Is Araghchi really on the same page with the hard liners that Trump promoted to the top of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps? Can Trump really restrain his pit bull, Benjamin Netanyahu?
Still, a ceasefire in the sense of no one shooting, and continued diplomacy via Pakistan and other regional players is far preferable to continued warfare.
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