March 29, 2023
Attacks on U.S. forces in Syria are
pulling Washington’s attention back to the Middle East as it seeks to shift its
focus and resources toward Russia and China.
With militants carrying out a series
of drone strikes late last week, killing one American contractor, the Biden
administration is grappling anew with a region it has slowly been trying to
extract itself from.
It comes amid major geopolitical
shifts in the area that stretches from Libya to Afghanistan, including renewed
diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran earlier this month that were
brokered by China; Russian-mediated negotiations between the Saudis and Syria
to mend alliances; and failed talks between Iran and the United States to
restart the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran
nuclear deal.
“The sands are shifting in the Middle
East. And in the last six months or so, they’ve been shifting very quickly,”
said Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “On the
surface, most of this looks like and is being publicly described as
de-escalation … [but] most of what is being described as de-escalation is paper
thin.”
The realignments mean Washington must
figure out a new diplomatic plan for the region and soon, or risk its influence
fading to rivals Moscow and Beijing in the face of a more dangerous Iran,
experts say.
“I think not addressing it and not
undertaking greater attention to it — as much as I understand the Biden
administration’s desire to just manage the Middle East — I think they’re going
to have to be more activist here,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S.
intelligence analyst on the Middle East who is now an expert on the region at the
Atlantic Council.
Without a new focus in the region, “we
risk not only undermining our own deterrence, but we risk real challenges by
Iran in ways that are threatening to U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria in a way
that will just continue in a manner that’s not acceptable,” he told The Hill.
Though the United States remains the
dominating political and military force in the Middle East, its position has
grown more precarious in the last half decade, following the deadly and chaotic
pullout from Afghanistan in August 2021 and the Trump administration’s decision
to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018.
Washington also has made clear its
intentions to shift focus away from the last 20 years of actively chasing
terrorist groups such as Islamic State, the Taliban or al-Qaeda in favor of
tackling threats from Russia and China.
But Washington’s commitment to the
Middle East is continually tested by threats from Iran, including more than 80
attacks backed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) on U.S. forces in Syria
since January 2021, according to U.S. Central Command head Gen. Erik
Kurilla.
The U.S. military has responded to
such attacks in four instances in the same timeframe, including a retaliatory
U.S. airstrike in Syria on Iranian-affiliated facilities last week.
The last of such attacks – a suicide
drone strike that killed the U.S. contractor and injured six other Americans —
came hours before Kurilla was set to testify before the House Armed Services
Committee on Thursday. In written comments to the committee, the four-star
general also said that deterring Iran is “arguably more urgent than at any time
in CENTCOM’s history” due to the IRGC arming militias with more advanced
weapons including ballistic and cruise missiles and unmanned drones.
What’s more, the failure of the Iran
nuclear talks has led Tehran to step closer to producing a nuclear weapon.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley
repeated warnings on Tuesday that from the time of an Iranian decision, Iran
could produce enough fissile material for nuclear weapon in less than two
weeks, with only several months thereafter to actually produce a nuclear
weapon.
He added that the U.S. military “has
developed multiple options for our national leadership to consider” if or when
Iran decides to develop a nuclear weapon.
“As far as CENTCOM and DOD is
concerned, in the Middle East, Iran is absolutely front and center in terms of
— not just posing active and present threats — but every single year getting
exponentially more threatening, more sophisticated, and more of a challenge for
the United States,” Lister said.
A turning focus to Asia
Concurrently, the Pentagon is facing
pressure from the administration as well as from some in Congress to move
resources from the Middle East to Asia, even as defense leaders warn of keeping
an eye on Iran, he added.
“They see [the threats] on a
day-to-day basis, and they don’t, I don’t think, perceive the highest levels of
this administration necessarily to be quite so cognizant and supportive of doing
what’s necessary to counter them or to confront them,” Lister told The Hill.
Case in point, President Biden
stressed last week when addressing the Tehran-backed militia strikes that the
United States did not want a war with Iran.
“Make no mistake, the United States
does not — does not, emphasize — seek conflict with Iran,” Biden said Friday
during a press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in
Ottawa. “But be prepared for us to act forcefully to protect our people. That’s
exactly what happened last night.”
Meanwhile on Tuesday, Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin revealed that the U.S. military has not taken any
retaliatory strike for the additional attacks on U.S. bases in Syria on Friday,
during which a U.S. servicemember was wounded.
The response has angered some on
Capitol Hill, with several Republican senators on Tuesday admonishing the
administration for failing to take more decisive action against Iran.
“What kind of signal do we think this
sends to Iran when they can attack us 83 times since Joe Biden has become
president, we only respond four? Maybe it’s because they know that we will not
retaliate until they kill an American, which emboldens them to keep launching
these attacks which kill Americans,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told Austin and
Milley at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.
And Senate Republican leader Mitch
McConnell (Ky.) said the administration allowed Tehran to “have the last word,”
in the situation, vowing to act in Congress if administration officials fail to
do so.
“Fortunately, the Senate has more
chances to work its will. And this week’s debate needs to be just the beginning
of a much broader and deeper look at the Biden Administration’s failed Middle
East policies,” McConnell said in a statement.
“This Administration must change its
strategy, rebuild deterrence, end Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons
capability, and protect Americans and American interests from Iranian
terrorism,” he added.
Experts are now watching for what, if
any, actions the administration might take in its policy on the Middle East in
the face of so many upheavals and growing threats.
Biden “was able to manage the U.S.
policy toward Iran for the first years of the administration. I’m skeptical
that it’s going to be able to be successful for the next few years, just
because of the geopolitical dynamics have changed in the region,” Panikoff
said.
“I think the question becomes, what is
the strategic plan here?”
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