Jake Johnson
Israeli attacks
have reportedly killed more than 70 people in the Gaza Strip in the hours since
a multiphase cease-fire agreement was announced Wednesday, a deal that sparked
cautious hope for an end to a 15-month U.S.-backed assault that has decimated the
Palestinian enclave and created one of the worst humanitarian emergencies in
modern history.
Relatives of a journalist killed by an Israeli drone attack carry his shrouded body in Khan Younis, Gaza on January 16, 2025. (Photo: Abed Rahim Khatib/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Israel's cabinet
was expected to meet Thursday to approve the cease-fire and hostage-release
deal, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement accusing
Hamas of reneging "on parts of the agreement reached with the mediators
and Israel in an effort to extort last-minute concessions."
"The
Israeli cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas
has accepted all elements of the agreement," said Netanyahu, who is facing
backlash from far-right groups and lawmakers over the deal.
Hamas rejected
Netanyahu's claim that it is backing off the agreed-upon deal, with senior
officials reiterating the group's commitment to the cease-fire in response to
the Israeli prime minister.
"There is
no basis for Netanyahu's allegations that the movement has backed down from the
terms of the cease-fire agreement," said one Hamas official.
At a Wednesday
press conference announcing the deal, Qatar's prime minister expressed hope
that "the coming days will not see any military operations," with the
cease-fire supposed to take effect on Sunday.
But those hopes
were quickly dashed as Israeli forces continued their bombing campaign in the
Gaza Strip, killing at least 73 people—including 20 children—and injuring
hundreds more in attacks across the territory following news of the deal, which
was a product of months of negotiations.
Al Jazeera
reported that one of the Israeli attacks hit a school housing displaced people
in Gaza City.
The deal's
announcement, while welcomed by humanitarian groups and Palestinians displaced
by Israeli bombing, was met with some trepidation given Netanyahu's insistence
last month that Israeli forces "will return to fighting" once
hostages are freed.
"There is
no point in pretending otherwise," the prime minister said, "because
returning to fighting is needed in order to complete the goals of the
war."
Annelle Sheline,
a research fellow in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for
Responsible Statecraft, wrote Wednesday that "despite the jubilation of
the population in Gaza as well as that of the families of hostages held by
Hamas, there have already been signs that Netanyahu has no interest in a
lasting cease-fire."
Matt Duss,
executive vice president of the Center for International Policy and a former
adviser to U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), warned Wednesday that "there
are many ways" the deal could fall apart.
"Netanyahu
has reportedly assured his right-wing ministers that he will resume the war
after phase I 'until Hamas' defeat,'" Duss noted. "If, as another
Israeli report claims, [U.S. President-elect Donald] Trump has secretly offered
support for more settlements in the West Bank in exchange for Netanyahu backing
the Gaza cease-fire, a return to large-scale violence against West Bank
Palestinians (as opposed to the smaller-scale violence that they endure every
day) is simply a question of when, not if."
"So long as
the Palestinian people live under occupation, and the Israeli government
steadily consolidates that occupation as a single undemocratic state, neither
Israelis nor Palestinians will ever know the security and peace that both
peoples desire and deserve," Duss added. "The path toward both will
require a level of vision and courage that is currently in very short
supply."
Dan
Steinbock
New
York (Special to Informed Comment; Feature) – Early in the year, State
Department officials briefed Joel Rayburn from the Trump transition team there
could be a humanitarian “catastrophe” in Gaza when a new Israeli law barring
contact with the UN refugee agency for Palestinians takes effect at the end of
the month.
The
UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) is the primary aid agency operating in the
Gaza Strip. After more than a year of war, the UN and other aid organizations
warn Gaza is close to uninhabitable. Tens of thousands of houses have been
destroyed. More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed and over 107,000
injured. In the future, these numbers are likely to prove three to four times
higher. And still worse could be ahead.
During
President Trump’s first term, his administration gradually cut all U.S.
assistance to UNRWA. The Biden administration later resumed U.S. aid to the
agency. Last March, Congress passed a law that bans the U.S. from funding UNRWA
until at least 2025.
Why
should the horrific policy errors of the past be compounded with monstrous new
policy mistakes?
The
origins
The
fate of UNRWA is one of the many dilemmas I scrutinized while working on The
Fall of Israel (2025). After achieving an initial truce in the 1948
Arab-Israeli War, Count Folke Bernadotte, a Swedish diplomat, used it to lay
the groundwork for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine
Refugees in the Near East.
Bernadotte
tried to balance the different interests of the Israelis and Palestinians, the
major powers in the region and the UN Partition Plan. Having witnessed the
horrible outcome of the Jewish Holocaust in Europe and hoping to avert a
catastrophe in Palestine, he also proposed that the UN should establish a
Palestine conciliation commission and Arab refugees would have a full right to
return to their homes in Jewish-controlled territory.
Just
hours after his proposal, Bernadotte was assassinated in Jerusalem by the
Jewish paramilitary Stern group, while pursuing his official duties. One of
those who planned the killing was Yitzhak Shamir, the future prime minister of
Israel, and the predecessor and onetime mentor of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s
current PM.
Ever
since then, UNRWA has been a lifeline to generations of Palestinians in the
West Bank, the Gaza Strip and the adjacent Arab countries. Created as a purely
temporary measure, UNRWA’s mandate has been subject to renewal every three
years ever since.
Historically,
the United States has been UNRWA’s largest financial contributor, with more
than $7.3 billion since 1950. From the start, these contributions have been
subject to a variety of legislative conditions and oversight measures, however.
Funding
threats
Decades
of U.S. policy toward Israel and the occupied territories, however ambiguous,
was reversed almost overnight, when the Trump administration executed a series
of dramatic policy changes in 2018 and canceled nearly all U.S. aid to the West
Bank and Gaza, plus $360 million in annual aid previously given to the UNRWA.
Subsequently, the Biden administration restored much of the funding, yet
provided Israel weapons and financing for the mass atrocities of those the
UNRWA funding was supposed to help.
After
allegations surfaced connecting a few of the 30,000 UNRWA employees with the
October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks against Israel, the Agency fired nine staff
members following a UN investigation. While it denied allegations that the
agency has widespread links to Hamas, Congress enacted a March 2024
prohibition on U.S. funding to UNRWA (P.L. 118-47), which is set to last
until late March, 2025.
To
put things into context: The Empire State Building is said to have 21,000
employees. Imagine what would happen if six of them would be suspected of
terrorism and therefore the entire building would have to be dismantled and all
employees fired? It would be an absurd collective punishment for the alleged
crimes of a few.
Worse,
the Israeli laws passed on October 28, 2024 and scheduled to take effect 90
days later, would endanger the lives of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians
in Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem.
Millions
of lives threatened
The
new U.S. and Israeli legal measures emboldened Jewish settlers, particularly
the Messianic far-right. In May 2024 they launched several attacks on the UNRWA
headquarters, setting fire to the perimeter of the building in East Jerusalem.
The attacks against UNRWA came after months of far-right settler protests
outside of the building, following Israeli claims of UNRWA-Hamas links;
accusations that lacked verification, according to U.S. intelligence.
Among
the protesters was Aryeh King, a deputy mayor of Jerusalem and a prominent
advocate for settlements, who called Palestinian Gazans “Muslim Nazis,”
described them as “sub-human” calling for captured Palestinians to be “buried
alive” in December 2023.
By
the year-end of 2024, some 265 UNRWA staff had been killed in hostilities since
October 7, 2023. Despite a record-high number that suggests intentional
targeting, those behind the Israeli strikes have not been prosecuted.
More
than 5.9 million Palestinians, including three of four in Gaza, are registered
with UNRWA as refugees.
The
stakes
In
Gaza, nearly two million Palestinians are displaced and dependent on aid for
food, water and medical services. U.S. officials say there’s no serious backup
plan for providing humanitarian supplies and services to Palestinians. With the
new U.S.-Israeli laws, senior UNRWA emergency officers presage social order
in the Strip could collapse.
Here
are some ways to preempt such disasters:
- The White House should pressure Israel to suspend and nullify the impending adverse acts against UNRWA
- S. Congress should lift current prohibition on UNRWA funding through March 2025
- UNRWA’s funding should be broadened by the U.S. and internationally in light of the devastation and genocidal atrocities caused in Gaza
- The Agency’s existence should be premised on the implementation of all relevant and existing UN resolutions both the U.S. and the international community have voted for.
How
probable are such measures in the conceivable future? Highly unlikely.
What’s
the alternative? Far worse, far worse.
Murad Sadygzade
A total of 466
days after the tragic events of October 7, 2023, when the simmering Middle
Eastern conflict reignited with devastating intensity, claiming the lives of
nearly 50,000 civilians, the long-awaited news of a ceasefire finally emerged.
In the shadow of destruction and loss, through indirect negotiations, Hamas and
Israel – two adversaries locked in an endless struggle – have managed to reach
an agreement. This fragile accord has become a symbol of hope for millions who
have endured the horrors of war.
For the people
of Gaza, this agreement is a beacon of light in a dark tunnel, a chance to
restore peace they had long lost. After years of relentless and bloody
confrontation that brought devastation and grief, many now dare to believe that
a return to normalcy is possible. In this ceasefire, they see a path to rebuild
lives shattered by conflict and reclaim the stability that was taken from them.
Israeli
citizens, meanwhile, have received the news with cautious optimism, holding
onto the possibility of relative stability. This moment offers an opportunity
to reconsider a way of life in which peace and security have always felt
precarious. The ceasefire brings with it hope for recovery, a reprieve from the
constant fear and tension, and a potential shift toward internal stability.
Qatar’s Prime
Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, announced the imminent
release of hostages held in Gaza and confirmed that Israel and Hamas had
reached an agreement for a ceasefire.
Al Thani
detailed that the agreement, expected to take effect on January 19, marks the
first step toward restoring peace in the region. The initial phase of the
agreement will last 42 days, during which Israel has agreed to withdraw its
forces from Gaza’s populated areas to border regions, a critical step toward
de-escalation. The Qatari Prime Minister also confirmed that 33 Israeli
hostages, along with Palestinian detainees, would be released under the terms
of the agreement. Additionally, the restoration of hospitals and medical
centers in Gaza will begin as part of humanitarian aid efforts.
Al Thani further
stated that the details of the second and third phases of the agreement would
be clarified later and called on all parties to exercise calm and refrain from
violence until the ceasefire comes into effect.
Hamas later
confirmed its acceptance of the ceasefire conditions in Gaza, expressing
satisfaction that the agreement resulted from “the legendary resilience of the
Palestinian people and the valiant resistance in Gaza,” as stated in the
group’s official announcement.
Moreover, The
Times of Israel reported that an important meeting of Israel’s Cabinet is
scheduled for January 16 at 11:00 a.m. local time, where the ceasefire
agreement in Gaza is expected to be approved.
According to Al
Jazeera, Qatar and Egypt are set to oversee the transfer of released hostages
from the southern part of Gaza to the north, a crucial element in implementing
the ceasefire agreement and ensuring security.
However, history
offers numerous examples where ceasefire agreements have failed to bring
lasting peace and stability. A recent case was the agreement between Israel and
Hezbollah, signed on November 27, 2024. This ceasefire, which included Lebanon
and several mediating countries like the United States, came after more than a
year of intense fighting.
Since October 8,
2023, Israel and Hezbollah had been locked in fierce hostilities, escalating
further after Israel launched a military invasion of Lebanon on October 1,
2024. The conflict resulted in significant casualties and destruction,
affecting not only Lebanon, but also Israel. This period of violence once again
underscored how rapidly tensions can ignite in a region long plagued by brutal
confrontations.
The ceasefire
agreement does not guarantee the elimination of tensions between Israel and
Hezbollah. Similarly, while the ceasefire in Gaza appears to be a step toward
peace, the region remains volatile, and the situation is far from
straightforward. Israel continues its military operations despite the truce.
For instance, on January 13, 2025, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted
airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. According to the IDF, these
strikes were based on intelligence reports and targeted several sites,
including missile launch facilities, military installations, and routes along
the Syria-Lebanon border used by Hezbollah for weapons smuggling.
Israel stated
that these sites posed a threat to “Israeli civilians and the IDF.” In line
with the ceasefire terms, Israel maintains it is acting in self-defense and
will counter any attempt by the terrorist organization to regroup. This
highlights that even with an official truce in place, Israel is unwilling to
halt its military operations if it perceives a security threat.
The same
fragility applies to the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The agreement is
precarious, riddled with vulnerabilities and unforeseen risks that could
reignite the flames of war in Gaza. The previous ceasefire between the IDF and
Hamas lasted only seven days – from November 24 to December 1, 2023. During
that period, the truce was extended twice, surpassing the originally agreed
four days. Palestinian militants released 105 Israeli and foreign hostages
during this time.
In the year that
followed, negotiations continued with active mediation by the US, Qatar, and
Egypt. Despite repeated statements from both sides and international mediators
claiming they were “closer than ever” to a new agreement, talks repeatedly
broke down.
One of the major
sticking points was control over the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt
border in the event of a truce, as well as the nature of the agreement –
whether it would be temporary or permanent. The Palestinian side insisted on
the latter, while Netanyahu maintained that the war would only end with the
complete destruction of Hamas. In early November, after yet another breakdown
in talks, Qatar announced it was withdrawing from its mediating role and
expelled Hamas representatives from its territory.
Thus, one can
only hope that the bloodshed will truly come to an end, but only time will
tell, as the root causes of the conflict remain unresolved. It is possible that
this ceasefire is merely a pause before an even greater catastrophe.
Mediators have
often pointed out that Israel’s stance has obstructed agreements during
previous ceasefire negotiations. However, in recent weeks, talks have gained
momentum, perhaps partly due to Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential
election. The Republican’s team has already claimed credit for securing a
ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The
president-elect himself promised “hell to pay” if a deal for the release of
hostages was not reached before his inauguration on January 20. “It won’t be
very pleasant,” Trump warned on December 16.
While the
outgoing US administration was conducting negotiations in Israel, Egypt, and
Qatar, representatives of the incoming administration embarked on a diplomatic
tour of key regional capitals. Middle East advisor Massad Boulos and special
envoy Steve Whitkoff held December talks with leaders in Qatar, the UAE, and
Saudi Arabia. According to Axios, discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman included not only a potential “mega-deal” between Washington and
Riyadh – encompassing expanded military cooperation and the normalization of
Saudi-Israeli relations – but also measures to resolve the Gaza conflict. From
December 17 to 19, hostage envoy Adam Boehler visited Israel, Egypt, and Qatar.
The broader
developments are also influenced by shifting political and military dynamics in
the Middle East. The fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria and the military
weakening of Hezbollah have significantly curtailed the ability of Hamas’s
allies within the so-called “Axis of Resistance” to provide support. The
diminished Hezbollah now faces challenges not only in the military sphere but
also in maintaining its political foothold in Lebanon.
Another critical
factor is Iran’s cautious stance. With Donald Trump’s assumption of power in
the US, Iran is wary of a direct military confrontation with Israel and its
allies. This has led Tehran to increasingly signal its willingness to engage in
negotiations with Washington, which has influenced its level of support for
Hezbollah and Hamas.
Furthermore,
there are no guarantees that subsequent phases of the ceasefire will be
implemented. On the sixteenth day after the agreement takes effect, indirect
negotiations are scheduled to begin between the parties to define the terms of
the next stage. This new phase is expected to involve the release of additional
hostages and prisoners, as well as an extension of the ceasefire.
However, there
are no written assurances that the truce will continue beyond the first stage
if an agreement on future actions is not reached.
Previous
experiences with such agreements demonstrate that Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly emphasized his intention to continue military
operations until Hamas is completely destroyed, even after the initial stage of
agreements is implemented.
The agreement
stipulates that Israeli forces will withdraw eastward to the Gaza border. One
of Hamas’s initial demands was the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from
the territory; however, this requirement was later dropped. The current terms
of the ceasefire allow for the prolonged presence of Israeli forces in a buffer
zone along the border. Additionally, Israeli control over the Philadelphi
Corridor and the Netzarim axis may remain intact.
For Gaza – a
territory only 40 kilometers long and 5 to 13 kilometers wide – any
continuation of Israel’s military presence means the exclusion of significant
portions of land from civilian use, such as housing or agriculture. This not
only increases pressure on an already densely populated region but also
infringes on the rights of Palestinian landowners.
The conclusion
of active hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon is likely to trigger complex internal
processes within Israel, where political and societal tensions remain extremely
high. The position of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet appears increasingly
precarious. The opposition is already poised to accuse him of dragging the
country into prolonged and costly conflicts that have resulted in substantial
civilian and military casualties.
Israel’s
economic situation has deteriorated significantly amid the fighting, while its
international reputation, particularly among European allies, has suffered. The
declared objectives of the military campaign remain unachieved. In Lebanon,
despite the significant weakening of Hezbollah, its influence could not be
completely eradicated. Similarly, Hamas in Gaza continues to retain the ability
to mount substantial resistance.
Statements by US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken have underscored growing discontent, even
among Israel’s allies. According to Washington, Hamas has almost fully
replenished its ranks following the events of October 7, 2023. Blinken noted
that a military campaign alone cannot defeat the radical movement. Without a
clear post-conflict plan and tangible political prospects for Palestinians,
Hamas – or similar groups – will inevitably fill the vacuum.
“We see this in
northern Gaza. Every time Israel conducts military operations and withdraws,
Hamas fighters regroup and return. The void simply cannot be filled. By our
estimates, the movement has already restored nearly all its personnel lost
during the conflict,”
Blinken said. He added that without a long-term solution, the situation sets
the stage for a protracted insurgency and endless confrontation.
Israel now finds
itself in a difficult position, where the end of military operations has not
brought the long-awaited stability, and both domestic and international
challenges continue to mount. Against this backdrop, the opposition is ready to
hold Netanyahu accountable, pointing out that despite the losses and
destruction, the influence of Hezbollah and Hamas remains significant, and
peace in the region has not been achieved.
Despite the
changing circumstances that enabled the ceasefire agreement, many key issues
remain unresolved. While the influence of Hamas and Hezbollah has been
weakened, it has not been eradicated. Israel’s domestic political climate
remains deeply unstable, and realistic prospects for addressing the Palestinian
issue have yet to be developed. Moreover, for Prime Minister Netanyahu, the
resumption of conflict may be his only opportunity to strengthen his position
and salvage his political career. All of this creates conditions for renewed
tension in Gaza to escalate into open conflict once again, turning the current
ceasefire into nothing more than a temporary reprieve.
Palestinian
armed group Hamas has rejected claims by the office of Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu that it is creating a last-minute “crisis” in finalizing the
deal to release the hostages held in Gaza.
On
Wednesday, US President-elect Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had
struck an agreement securing the release of the remaining hostages. According
to multiple media outlets, the agreement approved in Qatar involves a 42-day
truce and an exchange of prisoners, including all Israelis taken captive in the
October 7, 2023 Hamas incursion into the country.
“Hamas
is committed to the ceasefire agreement, which was announced by the mediators,”
Izzat al-Risheq, a senior member of the group’s political bureau, said in a
post on Telegram on Thursday.
The
statement came shortly after Netanyahu’s office accused the Palestinian group
of “reneging on the understandings” reached as part of the hostage deal and “creating
a last-minute crisis that is preventing an agreement.”
“The
Israeli cabinet will not convene [to approve the deal] until the mediators
notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement,”
it stressed.
Israel
intensified its airstrikes across Gaza shortly after the ceasefire and hostage
release deal was announced, Reuters reported, citing the civil emergency
service and residents in the enclave.
The
attacks came as people in Gaza took to the streets to celebrate the truce,
which is expected to start on Sunday.
At
least 32 people were killed in “heavy Israeli bombardment,” especially of Gaza
City, late on Wednesday, the agency said. The strikes continued early on
Thursday, with homes being destroyed in Rafah in southern Gaza, Nuseirat in
central Gaza, and in northern Gaza, it added.
The
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) blamed Hamas for firing a rocket into Israel on
Thursday, with the incident causing no casualties.
Israel
began its military operation in Gaza 15 months ago in response to the
cross-border raid by Hamas, in which around 1,200 people died and 250 others
were taken prisoner. At least 94 of them still remain in captivity. Nearly
47,000 Palestinians have been killed and over 104,000 wounded in Israeli
attacks in the enclave, according to the latest data from Gaza’s health
ministry.
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