September 21, 2023
Gen. Mike Minihan says he
doesn't believe war is 'inevitable' but wants to instill a sense of 'urgency'
to be prepared
The four-star general in
charge of the US Air Force’s Air Mobility Command has defended a memo he sent
to his officers earlier this year where he predicted the US would be at war
with China in 2025.
“My assessment is that war
is not inevitable, but the readiness I’m driving with that timeline is
absolutely essential to deterrence and absolutely essential to the decisive
victory,” Gen. Mike Minihan said last week when asked about his prediction,
according to Defense One.
“There needs to be tension
on readiness, more than just ‘be ready tonight.’ You need to have readiness
that drives urgency. The urgency and the action are paramount,” he added.
Minihan noted that the
memo, dated February 1, included the words: “I hope I am wrong.” But the memo
to his officers ordered them to be prepared for a fight with China, and while
the Pentagon distanced itself from Minihan’s timeline, the US is openly
preparing for a direct war with China by building up its forces in the Asia
Pacific and increasing military support for Taiwan.
Minihan’s prediction is
that the war would be sparked over a Chinese move on Taiwan. “My gut tells me
we will fight in 2025. [Chinese President Xi Jinping] secured his third term
and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in
2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in
2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity
are all aligned for 2025,” the memo reads.
The memo included several
orders for Air Mobility Command personnel, including getting their personal
affairs in order. “All AMC personnel will consider their personal affairs and
whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to
ensure they are legally ready and prepared,” Minihan wrote.
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