October 19, 2026
Eve Ottenberg
Donald “Blockade Everybody” Trump has said he is waiting till after the midterms to attack Iran again. This assault, he vows, will be the biggest blitz of the Iran War (though more recently he downplays the whole putative project), and he even rumbles that U.S. forces may invade (Ho! Ho!) But if it is the biggest, so will be Tehran’s response: so Israel would get barbecued, the remaining U.S. bases in the region would be obliterated, zero, zilch, nada, zip oil would leave the region and maybe an American aircraft carrier or two would be sunk. For all these reasons, Trump’s threatened blitzkrieg would be lunacy, and is very unlikely ever to happen. It’s such obvious lunacy, especially given that Tehran has defeated Washington pretty consistently so far, that one must wonder if this appearance of insanity isn’t the point, namely Richard Nixon’s “madman” approach to foreign policy.
Eve Ottenberg
Donald “Blockade Everybody” Trump has said he is waiting till after the midterms to attack Iran again. This assault, he vows, will be the biggest blitz of the Iran War (though more recently he downplays the whole putative project), and he even rumbles that U.S. forces may invade (Ho! Ho!) But if it is the biggest, so will be Tehran’s response: so Israel would get barbecued, the remaining U.S. bases in the region would be obliterated, zero, zilch, nada, zip oil would leave the region and maybe an American aircraft carrier or two would be sunk. For all these reasons, Trump’s threatened blitzkrieg would be lunacy, and is very unlikely ever to happen. It’s such obvious lunacy, especially given that Tehran has defeated Washington pretty consistently so far, that one must wonder if this appearance of insanity isn’t the point, namely Richard Nixon’s “madman” approach to foreign policy.
It could
be. The so-called thinking would be to cow the Persians at the prospect of a
homicidally deranged Trump. If so, it ain’t gonna work. They already know he’s
homicidally deranged. After all, he initiated this criminal, idiotic, utterly
unprovoked war for, well, no apparent reason. So they know he’s bonkers. But
they also know that unless he wants to go down in history as the next Adolf
Hitler, by using nukes in a pointless, unprovoked war, he’s basically impotent.
Meanwhile, The Hormuz Letter, an IRGC outlet that posts regularly on X, announced October 8 that the U.S. is preparing an “intense three-day military campaign against Iran, targeting Iran’s energy facilities, infrastructure, missile and drone arsenal and IRGC command posts and headquarters, with U.S. military commanders ready to begin the large-scale operations in the coming days, per the NYT.” An hour later, The Hormuz Letter cited the U.S. state department as having called off any attack, but then removed this post; so clearly in the Trump/IRGC propaganda war there’s lots of jockeying and things are fluid. All this, while Trump boasts about the millions of barrels of oil transiting Hormuz. But according to OilPrice.com on X October 7, “Kpler’s Michelle Brohard suspects some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran tolls for safe Hormuz passage, possibly 10-20% of cargo. The claim is unverified, but it may help explain why Brent sits near $100.”
Tolls in Hormuz will be a feature not a bug going forward, and the world will get used to it. Turkey charges fees for ships transiting the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, and of course the Suez and Panama Canals charge tolls. It’s not the end of the world. Indeed, if tolls in Hormuz keep the world’s economy humming, then they’re quite definitely not the end of the world – unless regarded from the perspective of climate change; but even some of the most committed environmentalists advocate for a SLOW phase-out of fossil fuels, precisely in order to protect the economy, people’s livelihoods and to keep the transition seamless enough that humanity doesn’t turn against it.
Chiming into the lunacy, unsurprisingly, we have Israel. There, various big shots have mouthed off publicly about attacking Iran sooner rather than later, leading to breathless media speculation that it’s all a Netanyahu plot to cancel the Israeli election. I have no doubt he’d like to cancel the election, but it seems unlikely Jerusalem, or more accurately re geographic targeting, Tel Aviv, is ready or able to face down Iran’s supposed hypersonic missiles. Last go round, Iran’s very fast missiles did not miss. Israel lucked out, in that few of these super-duper missiles were deployed, because Tehran was busy depleting its slower, older missiles first. That luck will not hold. Lots of the older missiles are gone. That leaves the hypersonics, which Iran allegedly and quite likely has, and also its simple, newer, faster missiles – for which Israel has no defense. Those fatuous dimwits in the west who believe that Patriot air defense can cope with this threat, get nothing but pity from the armament cognoscenti.
Aware that he has caused a global energy catastrophe, and even worse, boosted the price of regular gas at the U.S. pump to $5 per gallon to say nothing of prices in the grocery store where you can’t buy three small items for under $20, on October 10, Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin to waive U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel shipments until April 7, 2027. That’s a long time. It indicates that a sunshine ray of sanity has penetrated the petrified gray matter in the cranium of the current white house jefe. There’s no oil for Europe. The Saudi’s are getting creamed by the Houthis and so won’t be shipping diesel. Hormuz is bottled up. Russia hasn’t been exporting oil thanks to the so-called geniuses in the CIA assisting with Kiev’s targeting of Moscow’s energy facilities, and the U.S. needs its oil, especially its diesel for shipping per Moon of Alabama on X September 8. So the big boss on the Potomac extends an olive branch to the Kremlin, knowing full well that Moscow and Tehran are allies. But oh well, that’s life.
What does that Persian/Russian alliance mean? I’ll tell you. Or rather let military expert Will Schryver on X October 10: “It is rumored Russia and Iran are colluding to defeat U.S. sanctions by having Iran ship diesel to Russia, payment for which is obtained from Russian diesel sales into the global market. Therefore, it is possible any increased supply in global markets could be Iranian exports.” Oh, those crafty Eurasians! The yokels, crooks, nutcases and dunderheads in Washington don’t stand a chance.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian president for life Volodymyr Zelensky told Trump he can take his peace pipe and shove it, because he, Zelensky, doesn’t care how badly everybody needs Russian oil, “We will burn Russian refineries,” in the soothing elocution of one of his henchmen. This intransigence has led to yet another act in the Trump show, as our dear leader threatens all sorts of fire and brimstone on the proxy he’s been arming to the teeth ever since he returned to the oval office. All I can say is if you believe this theater, you get some kind of prize and it’s not a good one. Kiev is Washington’s client and doesn’t make a move without the Empire’s approval. Trump’s going to cut off Starlink? And let Washington’s and NATO’s massive, multi-year investment in their steel porcupine right on Russia’s border, namely Ukraine, go to waste? I don’t think so. That’s about as likely as Trump imposing an arms embargo on Israel. He will not abandon Tel Aviv on the Dnieper and Zelensky knows it. So, by the way, does every sentient being in the Kremlin, which is filled with a lot more sentient beings than, say, the white house.
Those in the Kremlin reportedly gave nothing in exchange for Washington’s minimal sanctions relief: no promise to negotiate a ceasefire, no vow of restraint in military attacks, nothing. That’s because realism dominates within the Kremlin. They know very well who does the targeting for Ukraine’s attacks on Russia, which kill civilians and blow up infrastructure, and it ain’t Santa Claus – it’s the CIA. Just as Putin has insisted, starting back in December 2021, in his letter to Genocide Joe Biden that the “root causes” of Russia’s complaint against Ukraine be addressed by the U.S. That means no Ukraine in NATO, no more genocide of Russian speakers in the Donbas. This Trump will not do. Neither one. So that means the war will continue, Moscow knows very well it’s fighting the entire west, yet it moves slowly and steadily, like the winner in Aesop’s “The Tortoise and the Hare.”
Just as the sporadically violent stalemate in the Persian Gulf will continue. All Iran must do to win is to survive. It has done so. The monstrously swollen heads in Washington and Jerusalem did not dream that would happen. They committed the fundamental error of believing their own ridiculous propaganda and in so doing committed a crime and worse, as they say, a blunder. So Trump’s useless fulminations against Iran will continue, but the jig is up, because Washington can’t win against either Tehran or Moscow, whom it has thrown into each other’s arms. Along, of course, with China.
Americans, take note of this sorry prognostication re Trump’s wars on Iran and Russia: Don’t expect prices to drop until he leaves the white house.
Meanwhile, The Hormuz Letter, an IRGC outlet that posts regularly on X, announced October 8 that the U.S. is preparing an “intense three-day military campaign against Iran, targeting Iran’s energy facilities, infrastructure, missile and drone arsenal and IRGC command posts and headquarters, with U.S. military commanders ready to begin the large-scale operations in the coming days, per the NYT.” An hour later, The Hormuz Letter cited the U.S. state department as having called off any attack, but then removed this post; so clearly in the Trump/IRGC propaganda war there’s lots of jockeying and things are fluid. All this, while Trump boasts about the millions of barrels of oil transiting Hormuz. But according to OilPrice.com on X October 7, “Kpler’s Michelle Brohard suspects some Gulf producers are quietly paying Iran tolls for safe Hormuz passage, possibly 10-20% of cargo. The claim is unverified, but it may help explain why Brent sits near $100.”
Tolls in Hormuz will be a feature not a bug going forward, and the world will get used to it. Turkey charges fees for ships transiting the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, and of course the Suez and Panama Canals charge tolls. It’s not the end of the world. Indeed, if tolls in Hormuz keep the world’s economy humming, then they’re quite definitely not the end of the world – unless regarded from the perspective of climate change; but even some of the most committed environmentalists advocate for a SLOW phase-out of fossil fuels, precisely in order to protect the economy, people’s livelihoods and to keep the transition seamless enough that humanity doesn’t turn against it.
Chiming into the lunacy, unsurprisingly, we have Israel. There, various big shots have mouthed off publicly about attacking Iran sooner rather than later, leading to breathless media speculation that it’s all a Netanyahu plot to cancel the Israeli election. I have no doubt he’d like to cancel the election, but it seems unlikely Jerusalem, or more accurately re geographic targeting, Tel Aviv, is ready or able to face down Iran’s supposed hypersonic missiles. Last go round, Iran’s very fast missiles did not miss. Israel lucked out, in that few of these super-duper missiles were deployed, because Tehran was busy depleting its slower, older missiles first. That luck will not hold. Lots of the older missiles are gone. That leaves the hypersonics, which Iran allegedly and quite likely has, and also its simple, newer, faster missiles – for which Israel has no defense. Those fatuous dimwits in the west who believe that Patriot air defense can cope with this threat, get nothing but pity from the armament cognoscenti.
Aware that he has caused a global energy catastrophe, and even worse, boosted the price of regular gas at the U.S. pump to $5 per gallon to say nothing of prices in the grocery store where you can’t buy three small items for under $20, on October 10, Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin to waive U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel shipments until April 7, 2027. That’s a long time. It indicates that a sunshine ray of sanity has penetrated the petrified gray matter in the cranium of the current white house jefe. There’s no oil for Europe. The Saudi’s are getting creamed by the Houthis and so won’t be shipping diesel. Hormuz is bottled up. Russia hasn’t been exporting oil thanks to the so-called geniuses in the CIA assisting with Kiev’s targeting of Moscow’s energy facilities, and the U.S. needs its oil, especially its diesel for shipping per Moon of Alabama on X September 8. So the big boss on the Potomac extends an olive branch to the Kremlin, knowing full well that Moscow and Tehran are allies. But oh well, that’s life.
What does that Persian/Russian alliance mean? I’ll tell you. Or rather let military expert Will Schryver on X October 10: “It is rumored Russia and Iran are colluding to defeat U.S. sanctions by having Iran ship diesel to Russia, payment for which is obtained from Russian diesel sales into the global market. Therefore, it is possible any increased supply in global markets could be Iranian exports.” Oh, those crafty Eurasians! The yokels, crooks, nutcases and dunderheads in Washington don’t stand a chance.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian president for life Volodymyr Zelensky told Trump he can take his peace pipe and shove it, because he, Zelensky, doesn’t care how badly everybody needs Russian oil, “We will burn Russian refineries,” in the soothing elocution of one of his henchmen. This intransigence has led to yet another act in the Trump show, as our dear leader threatens all sorts of fire and brimstone on the proxy he’s been arming to the teeth ever since he returned to the oval office. All I can say is if you believe this theater, you get some kind of prize and it’s not a good one. Kiev is Washington’s client and doesn’t make a move without the Empire’s approval. Trump’s going to cut off Starlink? And let Washington’s and NATO’s massive, multi-year investment in their steel porcupine right on Russia’s border, namely Ukraine, go to waste? I don’t think so. That’s about as likely as Trump imposing an arms embargo on Israel. He will not abandon Tel Aviv on the Dnieper and Zelensky knows it. So, by the way, does every sentient being in the Kremlin, which is filled with a lot more sentient beings than, say, the white house.
Those in the Kremlin reportedly gave nothing in exchange for Washington’s minimal sanctions relief: no promise to negotiate a ceasefire, no vow of restraint in military attacks, nothing. That’s because realism dominates within the Kremlin. They know very well who does the targeting for Ukraine’s attacks on Russia, which kill civilians and blow up infrastructure, and it ain’t Santa Claus – it’s the CIA. Just as Putin has insisted, starting back in December 2021, in his letter to Genocide Joe Biden that the “root causes” of Russia’s complaint against Ukraine be addressed by the U.S. That means no Ukraine in NATO, no more genocide of Russian speakers in the Donbas. This Trump will not do. Neither one. So that means the war will continue, Moscow knows very well it’s fighting the entire west, yet it moves slowly and steadily, like the winner in Aesop’s “The Tortoise and the Hare.”
Just as the sporadically violent stalemate in the Persian Gulf will continue. All Iran must do to win is to survive. It has done so. The monstrously swollen heads in Washington and Jerusalem did not dream that would happen. They committed the fundamental error of believing their own ridiculous propaganda and in so doing committed a crime and worse, as they say, a blunder. So Trump’s useless fulminations against Iran will continue, but the jig is up, because Washington can’t win against either Tehran or Moscow, whom it has thrown into each other’s arms. Along, of course, with China.
Americans, take note of this sorry prognostication re Trump’s wars on Iran and Russia: Don’t expect prices to drop until he leaves the white house.
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